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▲ simonw 4 hours ago

The same Apollo Global Research partner, Torsten Slok, also published this widely cited story in September 2025 last year, "AI Adoption Rate Trending Down for Large Companies": https://www.apolloacademy.com/ai-adoption-rate-trending-down...

I don't think that one has held up very well. A cynic might opine that they've realized how easy it is to grab headlines and attention by putting out research that feeds people who are hungry for negative stories about AI.

UPDATE: I'm going to take this one back a a bit: it turns out Apollo publish articles like this on a daily basis, so the occasional headline that appeals to the "hungry for negative stories about AI" crowd is less of a pattern than if they published less frequently than that.

▲jdlshore 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You’re implying that Apollo is biased, but the thing you’re quoting is a very brief report on publicly available research. This is the entirety of the article:

“The US Census Bureau conducts a biweekly survey of 1.2 million firms, and one question is whether a business has used AI tools such as machine learning, natural language processing, virtual agents or voice recognition to help produce goods or services in the past two weeks. Recent data by firm size shows that AI adoption has been declining among companies with more than 250 employees, see chart below.”

Two questions:

1) What does that chart show today? (Genuine question. I’m curious and don’t know where to find it.)

2) Regardless of what it shows now, why do you think Apollo reporting on it is noteworthy?

▲simonw 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm implying they may be biased in what they chose to report on and how they frame it, yes. Deciding which figures to turn into a chart is an editorial decision.

I'm writing up a new version of the chart at the moment, but here's a preview: https://static.simonwillison.net/static/2026-11-01/5821A414-...

Notes on where to find the data here: https://simonwillison.net/2025/Sep/9/apollo-ai-adoption/

▲timr an hour ago | parent [-]

> I'm implying they may be biased in what they chose to report on and how they frame it, yes. Deciding which figures to turn into a chart is an editorial decision.

I think the Apollo thing is a fairly dumb hot take based on a near-term wiggle in a graph, but it's hilarious that you are calling them biased.

Pot, kettle, black, etc.

Substantively, I don't think it's surprising at all to see those lines go up -- it would be shocking if they didn't go up, given the intensity of the hype. The slope is what matters. In particular, I wouldn't argue that your graph shows any kind of acceleration in adoption over time.

▲refurb 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Of course Apollo is biased. They are a hedge fund. They are biased towards their interpretation of the market.

In fact, they often put forward a hypothesis about a company or market and argue for it. I couldn’t think of anything less biased.

▲tjwebbnorfolk 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't know if it's "bias", exactly. This particular guy has been wrong on AI recently.

▲anonymous908213 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For being one of the biggest AI boosters on HN, you'd really think you could make a stronger case than "Apollo is bad because they observed and reported on a fact". It wasn't a prediction, so there's nothing to "hold up very well".

▲qlte 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Misunderstanding what actually qualifies as a "prediction" seems to be a recurring problem among AI commentators.

I've seen dozens of posts/top comments in the last few years dunking on "AI skeptics" for statements that didn't even vaguely resemble an actual prediction.

Like the front page post from Karpathy which got 600+ upvotes by throwing an AI model at old Hacker News comments without any human vetting to score "predictions". And upon further inspection included a bunch of unambiguously factual statements of the present or conditional if-then logic about the future which when glossed over for convenience become "failed" predictions.

▲80fj0348i an hour ago | parent [-]

I thought the scoring on that site was by human visitors, not AI?

▲simonw 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm judging them here based on their chosen headlines.

▲mrheosuper an hour ago | parent [-]

What would be your chosen headline ?

▲gnabgib 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A surfer is not a wave booster, this is a poor characterization.

▲Barrin92 19 minutes ago | parent [-]

we're not in the mysterious AI ocean, we're in the artificial swimming pool where the surfers and the guys selling wave-making machines are mostly the same people.

The person whose comment we're discussing literally has a sponsorship from an AI company on top of his blog that just raised 50 million bucks lol

▲Retric 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It was an accurate fit for the data, not a long term prediction.

▲ 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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▲EA-3167 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don’t think I’d judge someone offering a prediction the same way I’d judge an observation of what’s already happened. It’s implied that guesses about the future are uncertain in a way that statistics about the present are not.

▲magicalist 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> A cynic might opine that they've realized how easy it is to grab headlines and attention by putting out research that feeds people who are hungry for negative stories about AI.

This is kind of gross. Make the claim or not, don't do this pseudo-sealioning thing. Moreover, engage with the actual content (or you could just not engage at all!), not this shallowest possible dismissal.

▲daveguy 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A cynic might opine that an AI shill is not a great source of unbiased review of an article. The article is about a biweekly survey of companies and the trend was clearly dropping. This isn't about token use by tokenmaxxers increasing. And it isn't about the opinions of the folks you hang out with when you're flown to conferences to gush about AI. It's a survey of businesses. And aside from programming and math, AI sucks. Even in programming and math it's a tool with a lot of downsides.

▲thisismyanon2 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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