Scott Aaronson comments on his blog "Given this news, I’ll up my personal probability of P=NP from 3% to 5%." (https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=10239#comment-2042428)

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zeroonetwothree 8 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m not as smart as Scott but for me it’s more like 10% -> 20%. Do we have a prediction market for this?

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jibalt 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It seems highly irrational to bet that your evaluation is more likely than Aaronson's.

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kibwen 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Predictions markets are terrible mechanisms for this, because they require imposing an arbitrary time limit at which point the prediction will pay out. IOW, even if you religiously believed P=NP, but you think it would take at least two years to prove it, you would vote against the prediction if the deadline were one year.

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internetter 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Why must prediction markets have a predefined end date?

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jibalt 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Without it, capital would be trapped indefinitely.

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howunfortunate 4 hours ago | parent [-]

This is not necessarily true, you could have contracts rather than money down

	▲	jibalt 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		[flagged]

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Tadpole9181 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How would it work otherwise...?

	▲	internetter 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Anybody can exit their contract by selling their contract to an interested party

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7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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