| ▲ | kibwen 6 hours ago | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Predictions markets are terrible mechanisms for this, because they require imposing an arbitrary time limit at which point the prediction will pay out. IOW, even if you religiously believed P=NP, but you think it would take at least two years to prove it, you would vote against the prediction if the deadline were one year. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | internetter 6 hours ago | parent [-] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Why must prediction markets have a predefined end date? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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