| ▲ | dyslexit 2 hours ago |
| To be more specific: - 161.2B w/ Broadcom: 2026-2031 - 120.5B w/ SpaceX: 2026-2029 - 114.5B w/ Google: 2026-2033 - 110.0B w/ Amazon: 2026-2036 - 44.9B w/ Microsoft: 2026-2033 - 44.6B w/ Nscale: 2026-2033 - 41.3B w/ Lambda: 2026-2034 which is around $63.7 billion / year if spread over 10 years, but with most of it due earlier than that. |
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| ▲ | smallmancontrov 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Isn't the SpaceX contract cancelable with 90 day notice? How many of the others are too? |
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| ▲ | dyslexit an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | You're right, SpaceX cancelable within 90 days after a non-cancelable period ending in March 2027. SpaceX was the only one mentioned as cancelable. These are listed under "Infrastructure Service Arrangements" on page 170. | |
| ▲ | solyin 28 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The question is, how're those datacenters build outs coming along? two reasons for Anthropic to cancel those contracts. A) They don't need the capacity because they have capacity elsewhere, or b) they don't need the capacity because no one is using Claude. (I guess c) they don't need the capacity because theyre running Claude more efficiently is also technically possible.) For B to happen, they've got the demand in the form of contracts, and models don't really seem like they're shrinking, though there's a lot of non-public info, Astra > insize than sol, and Opus > insize than a Sonnet. So then we're looking at situation A), and the think to look at is SpaceX has the vertical integration to be able to plonk down datacenters and get them powered with literal jet/rocket engines/turbines that they make from scratch because they're a space rocket company when no on else can. So, personally, I don't think it's that big a risk to SpaceX's revenue. Or rather, is cancelable in 90 days, but smart money is going to see those cancelations coming from a lot longer away, if you're tracking datacenter construction. (Disclaimer, I picked up some SPCX; not financial advice, etc) | |
| ▲ | ethagknight an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | all Anthropic contracts are cancelable if the intent is to stick public shareholders with a bag | | |
| ▲ | lumost an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | I'd imagine all of the vendors have an incentive to keep their main customer a float, while there might be penalties etc. for missed targets - it doesn't make sense for any of these vendors to ride the contract into chapter 11. | | |
| ▲ | runako 39 minutes ago | parent [-] | | This is so important in analyzing these commitments. Anthropic's commitments will make them a Top 10 customer at many of their vendors. (Even at Google/Amazon, how many other customers do they have with $100B+ committed?) Those vendors would very much like to retain as much of that business as possible. If the space goes sideways, I would very much expect some kind of renegotiation/work out. |
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| ▲ | Mistletoe an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | This is always the intent for all recent IPOs I can remember. | |
| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | egeozcan 13 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| https://tinylittleoffice.com/write/#/v1/write/yZVWxTsMwEN39F... |
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| ▲ | Espressosaurus an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If we assume none of it is front-loaded (which seems, uhhhh unlikely) we're looking at ~$100 billion a year for the first 4 years of commitment. That's significant. |
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| ▲ | cavisne 17 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It’s been rumored but this is a pretty huge TPU dependency. Assuming Broadcom + Google is TPU spend. |
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| ▲ | nostrademons 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| On a side note, these are pretty hefty portions of the total revenue of these companies. 161B with Broadcom over 5 years is about 32B/year; that's fully half of their 2025 revenue. 120B with SpaceX over 3y is 40B a year, more than double their 2025 revenue and almost triple 2024. 114B with Google over 7 years is about 3% of their total revenue and about 1/4 of all Cloud revenue. 110B with Amazon is about 9% of their AWS revenue. If Anthropic's revenue story doesn't materialize and the AI bubble bursts, these companies are in a world of hurt. It's probably not fatal for Google or Amazon but would be a major drag on the stock price (perhaps why Google has dropped from 400 to 315 over the last couple months as the AI story soured), and it could be company-ending for Broadcom or SpaceX if they end up building out infrastructure to service these commitments. I remember before I left Google, one of the TGIF questions (which are now AI syntheses of many peoples' individual opinions) was "What happens if AI is a bubble and it bursts?" His response was "If that happens, the whole industry is in trouble." I see now what he meant. |
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| ▲ | monegator an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | one can truly dream | | | |
| ▲ | demibabs an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | wait what, how is Broadcom worth so much with so little revenue? | | |
| ▲ | nostrademons an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Their current stock price is pricing in these contracts, which have already been announced but have not been fulfilled (or booked as revenue) yet. So Broadcom's 2025 revenue was 63B; note that this is already up almost double from its 2023 revenue of 35B, largely on AI contracts. If Anthropic spends another $32B in 2026, that's in addition to their declared revenue; investors expect they'll be making $100B+ in 2026. Broadcom's operating margins are pretty good, so a lot of this flows through to the shareholders as earnings, and so investors are valuing it on the assumption that these contracts result in tangible cash flow. If the AI companies go tits-up, that introduces counterparty risk, the revenue doesn't materialize as cash, and suddenly their earnings take a nose-dive. If they've staffed up significantly to design and sell these AI accelerators and suddenly there's no market, they could be in a lot of hurt. | |
| ▲ | herodoturtle an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm sure there are others here that are experts on this topic, but my 2 cents on this is that Broadcom specialise in custom / specialised AI chips, and their collaboration with Google to manufacture the TPUs is a pretty solid revenue moat over the next several years. | |
| ▲ | AlphaSite 19 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Forward P/E. |
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