On a side note, these are pretty hefty portions of the total revenue of these companies. 161B with Broadcom over 5 years is about 32B/year; that's fully half of their 2025 revenue. 120B with SpaceX over 3y is 40B a year, more than double their 2025 revenue and almost triple 2024. 114B with Google over 7 years is about 3% of their total revenue and about 1/4 of all Cloud revenue. 110B with Amazon is about 9% of their AWS revenue.

If Anthropic's revenue story doesn't materialize and the AI bubble bursts, these companies are in a world of hurt. It's probably not fatal for Google or Amazon but would be a major drag on the stock price (perhaps why Google has dropped from 400 to 315 over the last couple months as the AI story soured), and it could be company-ending for Broadcom or SpaceX if they end up building out infrastructure to service these commitments.

I remember before I left Google, one of the TGIF questions (which are now AI syntheses of many peoples' individual opinions) was "What happens if AI is a bubble and it bursts?" His response was "If that happens, the whole industry is in trouble." I see now what he meant.

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monegator an hour ago | parent | next [-]

one can truly dream

	▲	19 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		[deleted]

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demibabs an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

wait what, how is Broadcom worth so much with so little revenue?

	▲	nostrademons an hour ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Their current stock price is pricing in these contracts, which have already been announced but have not been fulfilled (or booked as revenue) yet. So Broadcom's 2025 revenue was 63B; note that this is already up almost double from its 2023 revenue of 35B, largely on AI contracts. If Anthropic spends another $32B in 2026, that's in addition to their declared revenue; investors expect they'll be making $100B+ in 2026. Broadcom's operating margins are pretty good, so a lot of this flows through to the shareholders as earnings, and so investors are valuing it on the assumption that these contracts result in tangible cash flow. If the AI companies go tits-up, that introduces counterparty risk, the revenue doesn't materialize as cash, and suddenly their earnings take a nose-dive. If they've staffed up significantly to design and sell these AI accelerators and suddenly there's no market, they could be in a lot of hurt.
	▲	herodoturtle an hour ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		I'm sure there are others here that are experts on this topic, but my 2 cents on this is that Broadcom specialise in custom / specialised AI chips, and their collaboration with Google to manufacture the TPUs is a pretty solid revenue moat over the next several years.
	▲	AlphaSite 19 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Forward P/E.