|
| ▲ | metrix 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Completely agree, but I don't see how much _value_ these new users will get out of it.. Businesses are extracting value now - for the average user I see it as a convenience that they will pick the cheapest provider for.. It's a race to the bottom for most as there's not a major differentiator. |
| |
| ▲ | origini 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes its hard to predict for sure. Especially as the dust will only settle properly when Frontierlabs reach some kind of slowdown or ceilling, which I do not see right now. |
|
|
| ▲ | jazzypants 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I don't know a single person who hasn't used AI. |
| |
| ▲ | codingdave 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I know 2. That is out of the 3 people that I live with. Sure, this household is probably an outlier, but I think people inside the tech bubble do not realize the depth of the anti-AI sentiment from outside the bubble. | | |
| ▲ | jazzypants 44 minutes ago | parent [-] | | They have never read a Google search summary or anything like that? Avoiding AI is different from not having used it at all. |
| |
| ▲ | origini 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Thats called a bubble. Besides the question is not only if someone used AI but also for what and how much. But look at this map: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-ai-adoption-by-count... | | |
| ▲ | jazzypants 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Okay, so if we make the dubious assumption that revenue would increase proportionally in accordance with usage up to 100% of the population, that would still only account for a 6x increase in revenue-- not the 10x increase that they need to fulfill their contracts. Their product is increasingly replaceable, their revenue is super concentrated in just a few customers [0], and they're cracking down on distillation which was almost certainly a decent percentage of their revenue as well [1]. I'm not convinced. [0] https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/two-custome... [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/anthropic-ai-copycats-distil... | | |
| ▲ | orangecat 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | that would still only account for a 6x increase in revenue-- not the 10x increase that they need to fulfill their contracts Assuming you're talking about the $600 billion or so over the next decade, they don't need a 6x increase to cover that, they're already pretty close based on the $65B run rate as of last quarter. their revenue is super concentrated in just a few customers 20% for the top two customers is not actually that concentrated. If both of them go to zero, at their current growth rate (45% from Q2 to Q3) it would take about 6 weeks to replace that revenue. | |
| ▲ | origini 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Thats a different discussion though. But I do assume its not just adoption in the future its replacement and re-investment: Right now a company can't invest in anything else than humans. A team has 5-10 members, the 5-20% of them are below avg or just avg. you were happy to have them for whatever reason like smaller tasks, easier tasks more repetitive tasks. Now you can just replace them with AI Tokens. The second driver of this, or why this will/is happening not just for something like a developer through coding agents: the agentic layer is coming. Which will eat tokens for breakfast, but will also replace humans. Your HR system? Will have an Agentic layer by default. Your HR system will either respond automatically to you or with A2A to the ticket system. The ticket system will have an agentic layer. Your SEO tool? you will us the agentic layer to create camapaigns automatically. You migth give feedback but you will need less people and less skilled people if even. And this will happen on every layer of your stack. |
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | xyzsparetimexyz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Unless anthropic becomes an entertainment platform like netflix or something, I really can't see how they gain significantly more _paid_ users. The vast majority of people will use the free tiers of openai and claude. |
| |
| ▲ | origini 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Currently every business is building the Agentic Layer. A layer between the user and the product. With tx to an LLM, this layer will close the gap to full or borderline full automatisation. Your Ticketsystem will have agent support out of the box. Your incident system too. Your UI for SEO, SEO optimization, article creation etc. every single on of them wijll be there and consume tokens. Future invesment from 10 people in your l1 support might be 5 + token budget. Your SEO optimizer collegues? 1 Person + token budget instead of a team. | | |
| ▲ | xyzsparetimexyz 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | That seems like a really bad idea in many cases. Outside of maybe customer support and a few other things, I want to be working with deterministic software unless I explicitly decide otherwise | | |
| ▲ | origini 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I agree partially but that discussion or decision will not happen with / by me or you. Business doesn't think that deterministic to begin with. If customer support is faster and KPIs are fine, they will not care if customers get non deterministic customer support. And lets be fair: just because you hired someone doing SEO, doesn't give ou ANY understanding how good of a job they do. You will need to prove in the future that you can do it better than the agent. You will win at the beginning and fail later. The KPIs will show it and that person will get replaced. |
|
|
|
|
| ▲ | ieeje 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [dead] |
|
| ▲ | sekai 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > But lets be clear: the growth of Anthropics revenue is very fast and way too many people stll don't even use AI Anthropic is selling $3 for $1, of course the growth is fast. |
| |
| ▲ | origini 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | My last information was, that the inference itself is cheap but its subbsidy comes from ignoring the training. | |
| ▲ | dymk 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Really? The rumors are that their margins on tokens is quite healthy. That doesn't seem like loss-leading to me. |
|
