This might be one of the most consequential S-1s in the next decade. There's a part of me that's terrified, like we're on the precipice of financial or societal collapse. I suppose that could be a sign of the times.

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AJRF 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

why do you think that?

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afavour 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Their financials are an utter mess. But they’re also hyped enough that a lot of money will get invested in them. Should they crash a lot of money will be lost.

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runako 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Say more about that? The economics look better than I was expecting.

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AJRF 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, part of me wonders how much of it is shared delusion and how much is just cut throat racing for the exits.

Even if the tech + business fundamentals don't match reality, there's just so momentum in favor of a "win" here.

What we have today is interesting tech, with many, many applications - but the path to the kinds of things mentioned in this prospectus have no clear path, it seems like scaling laws are plateauing, but those invested speak as if it's a foregone conclusion we get AI we see in science fiction movies.

There is a good documentary called "All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace" which documents how computing started, the touted benefits (it would fix society, all illnesses, liberate humanity from work) - and the slow decline in optimism towards what we have today. I feel like AI will play out the same way.

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happa 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Money is not lost, it merely changes hands.

	▲	peterdsharpe 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		This would have been true until ~50-200 years ago, and the advent of modern capital markets. Now, credit is center stage and cash is the sideshow.
	▲	flyinglizard 5 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		It does get lost. Market cap can appear and vanish out of thin air. It's not a zero sum game, not remotely.

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saberience 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How are they a mess? They look amazing honestly, and I work in an office surrounded by experts in analyzing statements like this.

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sapphire4 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Bonds time.

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clarkdale 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We already had the most consequential IPO with SpaceX.

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origini 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Space-X is as weird as Tesla. Cult following makes that very irrasional.

Teslas evaluation was always "Tesla is not a car company, it does everything". Then Space-X came along "So Tesla and Space-x are not a car or rocket company, they do everything but now 2 times the evaluation".

Space-X would only work if they incresae the payload to space SIGNIFICANTLY. Starlink was the real reason for the last real relevant increase in payload but Space-X HAS to send Starship un there very very often but for what?

Yeah for Datacenters in Space.

In parallel you have Anthropic: Something which might be added to every single worker on the planet (by having tokens to help that one person to be better one way or the other) or it replaces humans with tokens globally.

And if you come with Grok: Its not Frontier and he even prefered to rent out his DC compute instead of leveraging it for more revenue because he can't. Not a good sign.

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ashkankiani 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I love reading through the comment history of people like you

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typeofhuman 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not sure why this is getting downvoted - other than for Musk-hate. Was largest IPO and made lots of regular people millionaires over night.

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origini 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Your evaluation of an IPO is if it made random people rich over night?

1. no thats called gambling

2. if it made random people rich over night, it made random people also poorer. Either the retirement funds, a 401k investment, real humans etc. Money is not created out of thin air.

The largest IPO though for sure correct, but yes, Tesla and Space-X live quite a lot from Musk so its hard to determine what the IPO of Space-x really is.

Btw. its not just random Musk hate, you simpllify that. Not only doesn't he care that his DOGE actions killed humans and kids, he also disrupts democracy and might poisen our atmosphere with Space-X. The rationallity of people around Musk is very very weird.

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bix6 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Which regular people?

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cosmic_quanta 6 hours ago | parent [-]

I imagine employees

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bix6 6 hours ago | parent [-]

So the janitors are millionaires? Or just all the college educated people?

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wippler 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Close enough - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-spcx-stock-ipo-welder-em...

	▲	bix6 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I think you’re discounting welders a bit but nice to see them getting stock.

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6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[deleted]

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colonelpopcorn 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why not both?