| ▲ | brink a day ago |
| Can't help but feel that AI is the killing of the golden goose. We thought it would kill jobs, but it may just end up killing entire industries. Intellectual property incentivized many and laid many golden eggs, but why would someone toil to create a new algorithm to solve a problem if someone else is just going to steal it in hours? But who knows, maybe imploding the software industry is a good thing. I may lose my house in the process, but I think we could all get back to touching a little more grass. |
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| ▲ | jcelerier 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > but why would someone toil to create a new algorithm to solve a problem if someone else is just going to steal it in hours? same reason I spent my entire career so far writing open-source code that anyone can copy ? (it's GPL, but imagine 100% companies actually caring about that). Ideas can't be owned. |
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| ▲ | skrtskrt 18 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Intellectual property is terrible for society on the whole. You could just as easily argue "why are 200 companies burning through people and natural resources to come up with the exact same thing and then marketing it as different" as you can say "why would anyone create anything without the ability to making oodles of money by restricting imitation". |
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| ▲ | lofaszvanitt 16 hours ago | parent [-] | | Just stop this nonsense. Intellectual property is good. Free open source is not good. Anything that is free while take a lot of effort is essentially killing potential jobs. Wake up. | | |
| ▲ | ashkankiani 16 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | In a society rich enough to be able to provide for everyone (which it is) and where food and housing are abundant (which they should be), then things being free isn't bad because you aren't worried about making money to live. You are the one who needs to wake up from the assumption that the only way to live is to hoard your intellectual products instead of imagining a society where you can stop having to compete on that level. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 15 hours ago | parent [-] | | Not only that, rent seeking destroys jobs as a result of artificial scarcity and hoarding. You pay $1000 to a monopolist instead of $100 to a small business and then having the other $900 to spend on whatever you want, like patronizing 9 other small businesses and actually getting something more for your money. The $900 in monopoly rent goes to Wall St instead of Main St and is used to e.g. bid up housing costs so people can't afford to buy a house. The incumbents lobby for restrictive zoning or professional licensing gatekeeping to keep those rents high, which means fewer jobs doing construction. It doesn't help you for huge corporations to get more of your money. | | |
| ▲ | creato 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | These numbers are made up. I don't see how IP clearly makes things worse or better. On one hand, yes, IP = monopoly = rents, as you say. But on the other hand, no IP means economy of scale is a lot more important, and that favors huge corporations. Which effect is bigger? I don't know. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > But on the other hand, no IP means economy of scale is a lot more important, and that favors huge corporations. "IP" is the thing that favors economies of scale. Suppose you're a manufacturing company and you want to make your own computers. You're great at making the chassis and screen and batteries and things like that, but to make a whole device you also need an operating system, a compiler, a web browser, a CPU, etc. If you're free to use existing ones then you have a chance. If you have to develop every one of those things in-house because every existing one is the property of an incumbent who is using it as a moat then you have to be a megacorp or you're sunk. Notice that this is what all of the smaller companies actually do. Every small consumer device OEM and some of the big ones are using some variant of Linux/Android or BSD rather than developing their own OS. NeXT, the scrappy company Apple bought and turned into Mac OS X when they were themselves the underdog, was based on BSD. RISC-V has shipped more than 30 billion cores and is taking a decent chunk of the embedded market from ARM, which is itself a company that licenses its designs to companies that compete with each other (and run Linux on their chips) rather than using exclusivity and mandatory vertical integration to try to monopolize the whole supply chain. Which is how the mobile market went to them rather than Intel and Microsoft. Who themselves took the desktop and server markets from even more vertically integrated mainframe companies. The availability of composition is what allows you to be a small company that does one thing well. Which is the thing you can't do when someone else has a monopoly on something you don't make but need, and correspondingly isn't willing to sell it to someone who is trying to compete with them in a different part of the supply chain. Moreover, the economies of scale you're talking about on the other side actually have diminishing returns. Suppose anybody who wants to make a product that typically sells for $100 has to buy a $10,000 machine in order to do it, but then can make an unlimited number of them. If you're so small that you only ship 100 units, the cost of that machine by itself is adding $100 to the cost of producing of each unit and you're pretty screwed. But if you're a medium sized company and you ship a million units, it's only adding one cent. The advantage of the medium company over the small one is dramatic. Whereas the megacorp that ships ten billion units shaves it down to 1/10000th cent, but then the advantage of the megacorp over the medium one is still less than one cent. On top of that, it's often something like you need a $10,000 machine that can make a million units even if you only use it to make a hundred, and then the scale advantage of the medium company over the small one is all still there, but the advantage of the megacorp over the medium one doesn't even exist because then to make ten billion units they need ten thousand machines. Which is even before we get to diseconomies of scale: The larger an entity is, the more efficiency you lose to bureaucracy, coordination costs, principal-agent problems, internal politics, etc. There is a reason industries with low barriers to entry tend not to monopolize. Why is there no monopolist who grows all of the coffee or weaves all of the clothing? Shouldn't "economies of scale" allow a single huge company to out-compete all of these little ones in the absence of anyone having a way of excluding competitors? Conversely, find a consolidated industry and you'll generally find some kind of government-backed monopoly or regulatory capture. | | | |
| ▲ | imtringued 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You completely missed the point. AnthonyMouse gave you a overly lengthy rebuttal without getting to the point but the cost structure of IP is as follows: the marginal cost of making a copy is low enough to be negligible compared to the fixed cost of creating it. This means the theoretical marginal cost is equal to the development cost divided by the number of paying customers. Where the development cost can either be a one time expense or an ongoing expense. Companies make the fixed investment (or take someone else's fixed investment like an open source project) and they charge market rate pricing. The difference between the marginal cost (which is dropping with scale) and the market rate is economic rent or producer surplus. Competing companies pop up and work on their own product because they see the producer surplus and want a piece for themselves. This is how you get many companies wast the producer surplus on reinventing the same software over and over again. Now with open source software you have the opposite problem. The marginal cost is zero, but the fixed cost still has to be paid. This means that the customer gets something that they would otherwise have to pay market rate pricing for free, this is consumer surplus. The marginal cost that the consumer would have to pay to keep the project alive becomes irrelevant the more consumers there are, which makes open source a financial tragedy because it fixed the cost structure problem at the expense of self sacrifice. |
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| ▲ | squidmaster 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Your tears are delicious. | |
| ▲ | anthk 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Are you from 1995? FLOSS won long ago. Services give companies far more money than software. Closed software it's dead. Custom services and in-place programming (adding features, interop...) for small non-IT companies gives far more money for IT companies. |
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| ▲ | lrvick 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > but why would someone toil to create a new algorithm to solve a problem if someone else is just going to steal it in hours? The same reason I have open sourced every line of code I have written in the last several years, even new inventions. Because it is good for society, and good for my reputation to show what I am capable of which has been very good for my career. Better to be the one to open source it before someone else does. The only business model left is convenience tax. Save people time and they give you money. |
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| ▲ | baranul 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | This has been debated about for quite a while, where people give donations in support or the "pay what you can" model. Unfortunately, many have argued that it (donations or PWYC) doesn't work and people usually pay only when forced to. There is also the claimed psychological issue, where when something is made free or people can pay minimum amounts, that it is devalued or thought as near worthless. On the flip, various people and organizations have claimed that it's possible to use alternate models, depending on how it's done. | | |
| ▲ | lrvick a few seconds ago | parent [-] | | Hackers with time on their hands will never pay for anything on a computer they can do themselves, but those with more money than time will pay even if it is open source. |
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| ▲ | djeastm 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | >and good for my reputation Do you think this will still apply for future generations? It seems like many people now are grabbing code either directly from model training or using agents to blindly scrape the web, finding code and customizing it without ever considering the author. Do you think individual contributors of open source code will have the same reputational incentive? | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > The only business model left is convenience tax. Save people time and they give you money. Which is why LLMs are going to kill most of the software industry. Software products and services operate on this assumption - package some functionality into an opinionated UI that makes some kind of work marginally more convenient, slap a brand on top, and you now have a captive audience and the perfect upsale/ad delivery vector, i.e. the user interface. LLMs flip that around, because suddenly, your UI is an obstacle sitting between the user and the problem they want to solve. | |
| ▲ | tdeck 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Because it is good for society, and good for my reputation to show what I am capable of which has been very good for my career. I feel that LLMs are destroying the reputation building benefits as well. It used to be that most people's published code was a result of their personal effort and thought process. This is no longer the case. Not only are many new contributions written by machine, but the very process of understanding and reasoning about code has been devalued. |
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| ▲ | squidbeak an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Your question presupposes new algorithms must come from someone toiling. But AI will be just as capable at developing new algorithms as ripping off the existing ones, surely? |
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| ▲ | tetraodonpuffer a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| it will also help with the environment by stopping a lot of forced obsolescence for no reason (apple rolls out a new OS every year, then magically wacom stops supporting perfectly working tablets in their new driver versions) |
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| ▲ | speff 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | Somewhat related, but I sicced an LLM at my wacom's BT and USB packets to connect it to an unsupported system and the dang thing got everything decoded in 15 minutes. Can't wait to resurrect some old hardware I've got laying around. |
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| ▲ | dns_snek a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > why would someone toil to create a new algorithm to solve a problem if someone else is just going to steal it in hours When that happens it shouldn't be forgotten that people (broadly speaking) chose this. AI proponents lit intellectual property on fire out of self-interest. |
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| ▲ | kube-system a day ago | parent [-] | | The technology is powerful enough that it was bound to happen regardless. If it didn't happen here in the US, it would have happened somewhere that IP laws aren't respected. | | |
| ▲ | dns_snek 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's an age-old rationalization for everything. | | |
| ▲ | kelnos 14 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I don't think that's the rebuttal you think it is. GP's argument is usually used in the sense of "if I hadn't done it, someone else would, so I might as well do it and the end result will be the same, except then I'll reap the rewards". It's a crap justification for doing something unethical. But in many cases, even the unethical ones, it's also true, and I think in this case it is too. If the US had magically shut down every AI lab on day one, and banned all AI research, that wouldn't have stopped this train. Probably would have slowed it down, but not enough to really matter. | |
| ▲ | kube-system 17 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I never said it was justified, just observed that it would happen and is happening, regardless of what "AI proponents" want to happen. IP law, like many laws regarding business practices, have and always had varying regulatory environments around the world when countries find it advantageous for their economies to have those environments. Regardless of whether or not we agree with it, adherence to our idea of IP law is not something the whole world agrees upon, even before LLMs. | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > That's an age-old rationalization for everything. Sometimes they're actually true. Repeatedly tell people climate change is a serious problem for over half a century -> hand wringing. Make solar panels cheap -> renewables become 99.2% of net new electricity generation in the US. You need something that looks like the second one. | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | In this case, this is what people want - they're fed up with all the IP bullshit, but never before had the tools to trivially bypass it. Now we have. Also that age-old rationalization has generally always been true. |
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| ▲ | eblanshey a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > but why would someone toil to create a new algorithm to solve a problem if someone else is just going to steal it in hours? I think it goes deeper than that, in that the AI era will eventually force us to rethink how we value each other. It used to be economic scarcity: I provide a service that very few people can provide, therefore I make a lot of money (supply and demand.) Now we're moving to a place where most anybody can do anything, so our value system needs to evolve, as well. Instead of valuing scarcity, perhaps we should value personal creativity and self-expression. Kind of like paying money for a concert, or for someone's personal painting, even though you can listen online, or you can just have AI generate the same painting. It comes more from wanting to support people than to supply scarcity-based demand. I think this idea makes many peoples' eyes roll, but IMO that's a testament to where we are today as a society. Most interactions get reduced to just business transactions without the humanity in it, and that's where our problems come from. |
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| ▲ | dns_snek 20 hours ago | parent [-] | | That's a nice vision but if AI and robots end up replacing most jobs then we're first going to suffer a total collapse in living standards across the world, until we replace capitalism at least. When the economy no longer relies on labour people won't have anything to trade in exchange for basic necessities. | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 15 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > if AI and robots end up replacing most jobs The only way AI and robots end up replacing most jobs is if they can do them for less money than people can. Which in turn means that those things become less expensive, since that's the thing causing suppliers to do it. So there are really three possibilities here. First, we get robots that can e.g. build houses and housing scarcity goes down, so now you don't need to make much money to afford rent. Second, robots still can't build housing, so then you get a job building housing and have a job. Or third, robots still can't build housing but we have a bunch of rent-seeking incumbents that won't allow you to get a job doing that either, because they're trying to keep rents high or artificially limit the supply of trade labor. It's the third one that really screws you and is the one that we need to prevent. | | |
| ▲ | dns_snek 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > so then you get a job building housing and have a job Let's say 50% of all jobs are lost. What would that kind of oversupply do to pay rates and working conditions in the remaining sectors? | |
| ▲ | deadbabe 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don’t want a house built by people who are just trying to get a paycheck because they got laid off from their cushy office jobs. | | |
| ▲ | diomedes 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | as opposed to the current people building houses who are doing it because they just love building houses so much | | |
| ▲ | AnthonyMouse 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | No it's fine, we don't have to require anyone to buy a house built by people who are "just trying to get a paycheck". As long as nobody is stopping them from building houses for the people who do want them. |
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| ▲ | baranul 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Oh, think it will/can be worse than that. The collapse of the present system can mean all out genocidal wars, either by eugenic and deranged humans doing it to themselves or true AGI and its robots removing human interference with its goals and Earth's resources. As for the AGI and robot part, various oligarchs are talking about manufacturing millions to even billions of robots. Combine that with billions of AI agents in massive data centers all over the world. Bringing forth a new self-sustaining artificial life form that can do what humans do (if not vastly better) and at comparable numbers or mass. | |
| ▲ | spwa4 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You only have to look at the current situation in China to see that the problem is not capitalism, or communism, at least not by itself: https://www.wsj.com/world/china-economy-gen-z-f9058941 https://www.economist.com/china/2019/11/14/homelessness-has-... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Si2zT-wCs3c We all know that "real" communist societies like North Korea are worse, much, much worse. In fact within China how bad this is varies enormously. If you're in a "rope village" somewhere deep inland, having the finest house in the entire city is arguably worse than homelessness in Beijing, but the party won't let you leave except as homeless, because you're allocated a "Household" (Hukou) and you aren't allowed to leave. And, of course, half the problem is the very structure of the communist party itself: local officials hide the problem, because if they don't, they'll be purged or at the very least won't see promotions, ever. Which means that the police will be using violence to hide the problem rather than fix it. AI can provide incredible wealth, or immeasurable misery, in both capitalist and communist societies. That is not what makes the difference, that is just how political parties like to frame themselves and so the argument why you should choose "left" or "right". Capitalism and private home ownership can certainly provide housing, but if you go too far or not far enough in private ownership and "protecting capital" they won't. And communism can certainly fix homelessness (the Soviets did, for example), except nowadays they just won't. AI will provide more tools for people with capital, which primarily will be the government. Whether that solves, say, homelessness is a choice, in either system. | | |
| ▲ | dns_snek 18 hours ago | parent [-] | | You missed the point and went on a tangent about random countries today. I don't claim to have a solution for what comes after but it is certain that capitalism will collapse if we ever see significant job loss due to AI and robotics. | | |
| ▲ | WalterBright 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > it is certain that capitalism will collapse if we ever see significant job loss due to AI and robotics. The Luddites said the same thing. | | |
| ▲ | TeMPOraL 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | FWIW, they were right. Society may have ended up better off in the end, but the Luddites - the actual individuals affected by the transition, and their families and their children - were absolutely screwed for life. | |
| ▲ | dns_snek 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | You may want to read past the headline when it comes to luddites. That's exactly what I'm talking about. | |
| ▲ | imtringued 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Luddites = Angry unemployed people who got proven wrong by being brutally murdered. |
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| ▲ | spwa4 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Nope. 1) Capitalism has historically been proven to work with 90% unemployment, unlike communism. Of course that would represent an enormous loss compared to today but it would not be enough to collapse it. 2) The same would happen to communism. Talk to someone from China and ask what their government will do when they can run the economy on 90% less people. The answer I've gotten is that they already know: after all the division between CCP/state jobs (which includes all state companies) and "normal" jobs already works like that. Then it was mentioned that there's a reason that people have committed murders for CCP jobs ... I don't understand what you're complaining about. Yes, the US and Europe are capitalist, BUT there is more than enough room in the law for communist communities. Some of those existed for decades, and some still exist. If you truly believe communism is better, why not just join one of those instead of dragging everyone along with you? | | |
| ▲ | dns_snek 21 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Capitalism has historically been proven to work with 90% unemployment What an extraordinary claim. Elaborate. > Of course that would represent an enormous loss compared to today but it would not be enough to collapse it. Betting against a revolution in such a scenario is bold. > Talk to someone from China China is capitalist, not communist. > If you truly believe communism is better, why not just join one of those instead of dragging everyone along with you Where did I say that? That's a nonsense argument for various reasons but it's not the point of this discussion so I'll skip it. The Great depression saw 25% unemployment and that was just a temporary upset, try 50% and rising over time. How long are you willing to go hungry supporting capitalism in that environment, and why? The food is right there, fully automated, the only reason you're not getting it is because you refuse to work in the mines 14 hours a day to get it. Capitalism will survive for a while but people will eventually revolt. | | |
| ▲ | spwa4 12 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > China is capitalist, not communist. Oh right I'm so sorry. There is no true communism anywhere on the planet, nor has there ever been and therefore your precious ideal cannot be judged. Of course, if any of it were to actually be implemented, it would rapidly evolve into "real" communism (as in existing in the real world as opposed to in theory), and it would resume destroying lives like every other real communism has always done ... But your precious ideal really is perfect (as in I don't want to argue about the ideal communism, a figment of people's imagination, because it's about as relevant as the very intricate arguing online on the politics of "magic for all ponies", the political slogan of the famous show) But of course you want to argue the ideal since it's really about just using the power of the state to get you a free playstation and a big apartment in the center of a perfect city. Reality is that if such a thing were attempted, playstations would rapidly cease to exist, big apartments would be reserved for party "business" (and mistresses), and the city would be about as perfect as moscow was in the 1970s. |
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| ▲ | burdock 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Intellectual property has rarely ever been "the golden goose", despite the anecdotes of the few Henry Fords that exist. Throughout history, the golden goose has typically been owning capital, and having market reach (see: advertising, the silk road). No matter how amazing your IP is, if you can't produce it at economically viable scales, and if you can't put it in front of people who will buy it, then you have nothing. So venture capital comes along, buys you out, and takes all your future profits in exchange for the "risk". On the other side of the coin, there's open source software developers, PhD's publishing papers for free, and your local musicians that like to play at events just for funsies. I mean, imagine the kind of world we'd live in if medicine were focused strictly on profitable moats instead of open research, and... oh. Right. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insulin |
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| ▲ | flir 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > but it may just end up killing entire industries. as did the internet before it > but it may just end up killing entire industries. how many record companies have been put out of business by piracy? |
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| ▲ | steve1977 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Or you do as OpenAI & Co. do and just rent out a service |
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| ▲ | m3kw9 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| people keep talking about AI killing this or that, but I feel they will create new industries. 50 years ago new tech can shift industries over decade or so, but AI will shift it in 1/5 or in a year, 2 even 1/10 of the time. |
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| ▲ | dw_arthur 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This was a huge problem before AI due to Amazon and global internet marketplaces. Why spend R&D dollars developing an amazing product when Chinese knockoffs will show up 6 months later? I wonder how many great consumer products don't exist because there's no way to recoup your R&D costs and develop a healthy market. Imagine if there were no intellectual protections for pharmaceuticals. The government would have to take over R&D. |
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| ▲ | lofaszvanitt 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Patents will become the norm with AI. Of course the average joe will not be able to afford it. |
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| ▲ | rfgplk 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Patents are essentially unenforceable. Plus to enforce them in court it takes.. years? International cases can take even longer. |
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| ▲ | oortoo 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| IDK about the grass, bro, I've mostly just seen a lot of pavement since I lost my SWE job |