Attacking a NATO country would mean total war for Russia. Currently there are no signs that Russia is ready for total war, or willing to have one. Russia has been fighting a war of attrition in Ukraine for 4 years, without a moving frontline, exactly because it wants to win by slow attrition.

Total war (all money going to the war, millions of mobilized workers, etc.) would result in an economic collapse, which Russia is trying to avoid. Aside from "inconveniences" like Yandex AI not working after a data center hit, Russia's everyday life is largely unaffected by the war (at least compared to Ukraine's) - exactly because it is avoiding total war.

If Russia were desperate enough to finally go all in and have full mobilization (millions of conscripts, all industry working around the clock building nothing but drones and missiles, etc.), why would it start by attacking random EU countries instead of Ukraine itself? So I think it's very unlikely that anything is going to happen to Europe other than sabotage here and there. Remember that Putin is a KGB agent, and they're more about targeted tactical operations than strategic chess play.

The whole "special military operation" thing was itself just a way to quickly coerce Zelensky into signing an agreement by threatening force, without total war, but it fell apart, so they had to go this war-of-attrition route

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9dev 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Attacking a NATO country would mean total war for Russia.

Is that so? I wouldn't trust the USA to commit to its NATO responsibilities anymore. The rest of NATO, torn as it is, could just as well find all kinds of reasons why this particular attack isn't a "real" attack, just to avoid the confrontation.

I wouldn't bet on that scenario happening, but as Russia, I wouldn't dismiss it outright either.

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fierycatnet 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Finally a lucid comment.

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azan_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> why would it start by attacking random EU countries instead of Ukraine itself?

Because if russian troops appear in EU countries, EU might be more willing to accept Ukraine losing larger territories in peace deals. That's why EU has to - once attacked - hit russia so strongly, that they will retreat on our conditions.

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yakshaving_jgt 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> why would it start by attacking random EU countries instead of Ukraine itself?

Because it would force NATO to divert resources away from Ukraine.

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kgeist 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

How would a direct war with NATO on several fronts help Russia win in Ukraine? Russia isn't ready for it in the slightest. As I said, if they wanted to go all in (full mobilization instead of partial, martial law, converting all industry to military production, etc.), it would be more logical to focus first on that 1 country they want to defeat, rather than immediately triggering Article 5 and fighting 32 countries at once. It just doesn't make any sense, and judging by the Kremlin's decisions over the last 4 years, I don't think they're that stupid.

	▲	yakshaving_jgt 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		If you're interested in the logic behind this war, you might be interested in learning from Anders Puck Nielsen, author of The Logic of War. - https://youtu.be/z61ZuZ08jRA?si=_GChfuUptluluave&t=602 - https://youtu.be/NCEKsF9w8uQ?si=WkguFDu0vSdm1dbR&t=405 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opa3s2VuD0s - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQmxNTloGmw

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athrowaway3z 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

this goes both ways; they'd be gambling that NATO doesn't launch things into Russia. From the accounts I've seen they did strip down the rest of the border forts to supply Ukraine.

Also, most of NATO's existing resources are currently not doing much but standing around. You can question how useful NATO's 'pre-drone' material is, and how much hasn't already been sent to Ukraine, but it's not nothing.

	▲	kgeist 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		>they'd be gambling that NATO doesn't launch things into Russia The official discourse in Russia is that NATO is already helping Ukraine launch things into Russia. So there's no gamble; for them, it's already a fact. Except, currently, it's just a proxy war where Ukraine has to jump through hoops to get military aid and targets approved, and it can only fire from Ukraine's territory. With a direct confrontation, there's no doubt that far more would be launched into Russia.