Yeah, that's not going to happen. They are more likely to lose a lot of customers, unless Anthropic does the same thing.

But $200 is likely the ceiling of what people will pay for a subscription with usage based on vibes.

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latentsea 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

For consumers they may as well buy GPUs and run local models. The cost is same over a year or two but infinite token usage, they get to keep the hardware, and local models continue to improve over that time too. I can't justify $200 on SOTA models for a personal subscription after Qwen3.8-27B. And it's only getting better from here.

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glub 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, either US AI corps reduce the cost of their top tier personal subscriptions down to what people are already paying for other expensive personal apps (e.g. Adobe), so ~$50-100, or open weights are going to eat their lunch very quickly. We're not there yet, as current hardware doesn't allow you to do things like multiple parallel agents, but we'll get there soon enough.

$500 for the old $200 is definitely a fumble.

	▲	latentsea 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I have multiple GPUs now as a way to solve that.

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seizethecheese 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

People said the same about $200 a month. I think the ceiling is probably much higher. Companies regularly spend 10% or more of employee cost on offices, SaaS, equipment. I could see these costs going to 10% of white collar income.

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glub 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> People said the same about $200 a month

This is missing an important context. And I actually remember this well, because I was saying that too. And the reason I was saying is that $200 plan didn't come with API usage, it was a chat plan.

It made no sense up until they started including API usage. Just as $500 makes no sense now.

> costs going to 10% of white collar income.

There's a permanent and ever lowering ceiling maintained by open weight models. It makes no sense to justify paying 10% of income permanently for something that will get you unlimited local inference for a 6 month subscription cost.

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seizethecheese 3 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m not quite sure I understand the API usage point as it relates to regular customers.

	▲	glub 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You could only use it on chatgpt.com Now you can use it in coding harnesses that call the API.