> the vibe here is far from doom and gloom.

To be fair, this is true of most of AFK world. Things start seeing a lot less doomy and gloomy when you're actually outside talking with other humans. Seems to mostly be online and various darker corners where they're dooming and glooming.

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Lio a day ago | parent | next [-]

I get why DHH would be really happy about getting rid of engineers. It's less clear how this isn't a little bit gloomy for the engineers.

Is the idea that they'll switch to doing "product owner" roles overseeing agents? I don't see that employing the same number of people or paying as well as engineering used to.

To be honest I expect that that role to suit different people to those that used to be engineers.

If this feels gloomy to some people, it's because it is.

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andrewmutz a day ago | parent [-]

Why are you saying he got rid of engineers? Did you watch the talk?

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Lio a day ago | parent [-]

Yes, I watched it. I'm not saying he got rid of engineers so much as just not hiring new ones.

If he's hiring new people they won't be engineers or the people that used to do engineering.

They'll be people that are better suited to writing English than code.

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andrewmutz a day ago | parent | next [-]

I don't think that hiring the engineers was ever an option. He said that he couldnt maintain six native apps before agentic coding. The business never even considered expanding headcount by 6X to do it, it was a complete nonstarter.

There is no fixed pie of work that AI is taking from us. In this circumstance, increased productivity caused the company to just make more stuff, not lay off people (or avoid planned hires).

It is a real world example of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

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Lio a day ago | parent | next [-]

To clarify, my point isn't that the market for software won't expand due to the greater productivity unlocked by AI.

It's that the benefits of that productivity won't go to the kinds of people that previously wanted to stay in engineering their whole career.

I'm not sure the Jevons Paradox applies because you're not just making engineering more efficient you're replacing it altogether with something much more commoditised.

People will gain from this but it won't be the same people.

	▲	conductr a day ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Likewise, consumers will eventually reduce the amount they’re willing to pay for software so it will balance out. It will be a blip in time we look back on. Like, remember when elevators used to employ an operator. Now we just push a button and happily do it without another person’s labor.
	▲	andrewmutz a day ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Well at least in this particular case, it was the same engineers on the team. He specifically said he tried getting UX people to vibe code things and the results didnt work

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confidantlake a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Jevon's paradox has to do with consuming resources, not employment. There are plenty of examples of fields getting more efficient and employment falling. Farming and manufacturing being 2 examples.

	▲	jan_m_savage 20 hours ago \| parent [-]
		You're conflating different categories of activities. Farming and manufacturing are amenable to automation precisely because not much real thinking and communication is required. SE is not like farming.

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themgt a day ago | parent | prev [-]

It is a real world example of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

It's an interesting example in that a switch from web/React -> native seems like Jevons paradox from the perspective a developer considering "amount of effort I'd need to put in"

But Jevon's paradox is about consumption of a resource increasing. The resource being "developer effort" but the new supply all running inside GPUs and dev machines. He actually says he decreased their server deployment by 90%.

So on net, did they basically deliver their users a much nicer but functionally equivalent app, which in total now consumes less resources / spends less $ into the economy? And then the $10T question is to what degree this is representative of AI's effect.

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kreskin a day ago | parent | prev [-]

37signals typically doesn't do hire a lot of software engineers but just last week they hired Rob Zolkos who is very clearly a software engineer.

https://x.com/jasonfried/status/2100668586851537195

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4ndrewl a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

the algorithm is programmed to deliver it. Better engagement metrics with misery and anger than joy and hopefulness. (yes I know that you will reply 'but I prefer the joy and hope', but that's not the case across the wider population)

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ryanSrich 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And I think the online reality is much closer to the truth than AFK reality. I can't think of a single founder I've talked to in the past two years that's building with rails. That doesn't mean rails dies overnight, but it does mean it's simply all downhill from here.