Expectations are a funny thing, a year ago I thought all software industry will cut at least 30% in a year. It's very far from happening. A big change is obviously coming but now I think I'm good enough to last at least the next 5 years, which suddenly feels like a long time if you see it coming.

The truth is despite these very impressive improvements, most impressive work done by agents require many iterations running in a loop, with tens of thousands of dollars in API pricing. And it's still far from being always reliable. Somewhere along the way hardware will get better, energy will be cheaper, the market will be flooded by chips. There a physical world issues that limit all of these for now, thank god. I think 5 years is a good number.

The real damage is that enterprise work became unbearable. Slop code with slop code review, and overly verbose emails with repetitive presentations. And on the other hand, I now enjoy "coding" for myself like I'm 16 again. All I want to do is sit at home and build apps for myself and family. I barely go to work

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philipwhiuk 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Expectations are a funny thing, a year ago I thought all software industry will cut at least 30% in a year.

People overestimate the change in the short term and underestimate the long term. Timelines are hard.

Also predicting the first victims is harder - I don't know many that thought pure mathematics would be high on the list.

	▲	altcognito 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I keep repeating this too. The history of the self driving car is apt to repeat as well. I remember thinking "2015, 2018 maybe at the latest." But as 2015 (and 2018) came and went, expectations were tempered. We will see shortened development cycles, and maybe even orders of magnitude shorter development cycles. But hard problems remain hard (there are only so many chips, materials research and biology are difficult problems). Manufacturing remains a choke point. I'm more concerned that the absolute worst persons on the planet are in charge of many of these technologies. If those that are in charge are more concerned about allocating resources and power in their favor, the more dismal the future of all humanity will be (including for those in charge, but they can't see that due to self-interest bias)

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mattmaroon a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I think the change might be orders of magnitude more software being written rather than an order of magnitude fewer developers. There is a HUGE induced demand coming when software is so cheap to write.

I've never been a professional, but I've been coding for nearly 30 years as an amateur, and I've "written" more code in the last year than the previous 29, and it was all tooling for my very non-tech small business. It's cut HOURS out of my week, and it's all software I could not have afforded to pay developers for. But with Lovable, just describe it and iterate.

What IS going to die is software as a service. I've cancelled hundreds of dollars a month of subs and rolled my own better tooling.

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whackernews a day ago | parent [-]

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	▲	mattmaroon 17 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Yeah I’ve been commenting on here for 20 yrs just to promote some stuff later.