I keep repeating this too.

The history of the self driving car is apt to repeat as well. I remember thinking "2015, 2018 maybe at the latest." But as 2015 (and 2018) came and went, expectations were tempered.

We will see shortened development cycles, and maybe even orders of magnitude shorter development cycles.

But hard problems remain hard (there are only so many chips, materials research and biology are difficult problems). Manufacturing remains a choke point.

I'm more concerned that the absolute worst persons on the planet are in charge of many of these technologies. If those that are in charge are more concerned about allocating resources and power in their favor, the more dismal the future of all humanity will be (including for those in charge, but they can't see that due to self-interest bias)