Artificial intelligence now beats some of the best human forecasters

bagels 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Aren't forecasters already using 'artificial intelligence' for decades in the form of non-llm machine learning models?

glimshe 23 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Product idea: a LLM trained separately from mainline LLMs that anticipate market trends by analyzing how mainline LLMs will invest. As retail investors will probably use mainline AI for decisions going forward , one could get an edge.

"The AI-driven Market Hypothesis"

Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

	▲	graypegg 21 minutes ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Then the next person needs an LLM trained to predict the LLM trained to predict the mainline LLM. It's derivatives all the way down
	▲	codebastard 20 minutes ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		Would you not then also copy the investments? Or are you trying to inverse the trades by an unpredictable time factor reasoning that thanks to AI the underlying stock is over- or underpriced?
	▲	ddp26 15 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I think your idea could actually work, but not in financial markets. (The "keynesian beauty contest" of trying to predict what others think been played out to death there.) You could train a model to anticipating scientific trends. Or policy trends. Others will definitely use mainline LLMs to make decisions there, so they may be more predictable now!

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tolugenius 2 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Archive Link: http://archive.today/IVreS

	▲	gabrielsroka a few seconds ago \| parent [-]
		Doesn't show the content

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296012 24 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That is too bad for The Economist. Exor N.V and Agnelli might replace some pundits at The Economist.

	▲	ddp26 14 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		The Economist has actually published other human forecasts many times, e.g. Metaculus or Good Judgment forecasts. They do year-end forecasts too. Whether they draw on AI or other humans seems immaterial to the quality of their reporting.

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croes 20 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Given the training data isn’t that more a win for the wisdom of the crowd?

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xgulfie 26 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Hasn't this been true for like 40 years

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anon48293 16 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Paywall

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qsbuilder 6 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

The test is when reflexivity kicks in and the prediction itself changes market behavior. LLMs usually melt there