Product idea: a LLM trained separately from mainline LLMs that anticipate market trends by analyzing how mainline LLMs will invest. As retail investors will probably use mainline AI for decisions going forward , one could get an edge.

"The AI-driven Market Hypothesis"

Please let me know where I should pick up my Nobel prize.

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graypegg an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Then the next person needs an LLM trained to predict the LLM trained to predict the mainline LLM.

It's derivatives all the way down

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in_absentia 14 minutes ago | parent [-]

"No one could have anticipated the market crash of 2028."

	▲	9 minutes ago \| parent [-]
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zippyman55 11 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Be sure to sound excited when they call you at 3AM for your award. It helps to say : DYNAMITE! As a term of excitement.

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codebastard an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Would you not then also copy the investments? Or are you trying to inverse the trades by an unpredictable time factor reasoning that thanks to AI the underlying stock is over- or underpriced?

	▲	in_absentia 6 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		A lot of algorithmic trading is short-term, essentially trying to guess what other parties may be selling or buying so that you can front-run them and then collect a fee. Kinda like ticket scalping, except we accept it and have a retro-justification for why it's good ("improving liquidity"). Or, in the best case, you're trying to mine signals few days before earnings or some other big story and bet on the directional outcome of that. Fully-algorithmic long-term trading is of dubious benefit simply because that's driven to a much greater extent by geopolitics and macroeconomic trends, unforeseen scandals, successful product launches, and so on. As an example, you can believe that AR / VR is the future; I don't disagree. And in 2013, you might have inferred that Google is working on a revolutionary miniature AR headset. But you would not have made money if you bet on that turning out to be a hit. So even if you had a way to automate this bet, it would not have been a good bet.

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ddp26 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I think your idea could actually work, but not in financial markets. (The "keynesian beauty contest" of trying to predict what others think been played out to death there.)

You could train a model to anticipating scientific trends. Or policy trends. Others will definitely use mainline LLMs to make decisions there, so they may be more predictable now!