This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration. While that makes sense, my prediction is that in the short-term it won't amount to much. In the long-term, history books will write about these years as redefining the world order that's existed largely since 1945.

As for Canada, nobody really knows what associate membership means. Given that EU freedoms are reciprocal I just don't see this going anywhere. Plus there's been a free trade deal with the EU on the table for a decade that hasn't been ratified.

As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy.

And of course the big winner in all of this is China who have had to do absolutely nothing.

Empires don't die overnight and they die violently. This is going to be bad but I honestly see no way the US can restore its position as the global hegemon. It's influence has peaked. And I don't believe anything will reverse that.

So I don't know what this means for Australia. It has operated essentially as an American colonial outpost since the Cold War. The geography was once much more important to cover the sky for receiving satellite communications.

Selling raw resources is ultimately untenable for an economy (IMHO) but Australia has gone down the path of turning the entire economy into a massive Ponzi scheme of housing, like almost every other developed nation. When housing is the only logical investment, it dominates capital and lending and productive output falls off a cliff, which is exactly what happened.

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YZF a day ago | parent | next [-]

We shall see. But Russia's invasion of Ukraine way predates the recent wars in the middle east. It's more like the inability to restrain Russia's aspirations in Ukraine have led to instability in the rest of the world. More generally the failure to sustain a more free and democratic Russia or China is perhaps the source of all the other instabilities which all involve political, military and financial support from the China/Russia axis.

I wouldn't write off the US quite yet but it's definitely more of a multi-polar world with the US and China the major powers vs. the brief single polar world that followed the fall of the USSR. Arguably the quietest and most prosperous period ever, the largest number of people worldwide rising up from poverty etc. We're gonna miss it.

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jmyeet a day ago | parent [-]

By the summer of 2023 when Ukraine's big counteroffensive had failed my own view was that the situation was stalemated and Russia will wait until the West gets bored or the situation changes and Russia's geopolitical position improves. Russia has that option available to it in a way the West doesn't.

Sanctions in general don't work. They don't work against enemies. Arguably they only work against allies (eg apartheid South Africa). Sanctions were never going to work against Russia and Russia has more manpower to throw at the meat grinder than Ukraine does.

And that changing situation has come to Putin with the Iran War. The US has lost. It has been strategically and militarily defeated by a lesser regional power. It's just a matter of time before it accepts this loss.

Because of attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia has changed from a net diesel exporter to banning diesel exports and arguably being a diesel importer. That's a big problem that we're all about to learn. China too has banned the export of refined petroleum products (including diesel) for months now. Diesel prices are about to go way up and the US is now considering a ban on diesel exports. All this "energy nationalism" is going to torch Europe, Asian economies and South America. Just you wait.

By foolishly attacking Iran, Trump has made Russia's position much stronger. So yes, the Ukraine war predates the Iran war but the Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia. That's the point.

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YZF a day ago | parent | next [-]

Or maybe the lesson to Russia is that if the US can't win against Iran how is it going to win against Ukraine? Another angle to look at it is through who does China support (Russia and Iran?).

I think your perspective is interesting and not wrong. The weakness of the US (and the west) is emboldening Putin. I do still think the order of events starts with Russia, China and Iran's challenge the post USSR collapse status quo. In a parallel universe if Russia was able to embrace democracy and become a free country, and if China kept opening up and didn't reverse course, then we wouldn't have the Iran war at all (likely the regime in Iran would have long fallen). The world seemed to be on a course to more freedom, democracy, and prosperity, and less wars, when the Berlin wall fell. And then at some point we went backwards.

As to Putin and Russia it doesn't seem like he has a path to anything that looks like a win. How long he's going to persist is a good question. What is Iran's path forward here is also far from clear. I wouldn't want their sort of "win" myself. It's like Afghanistan's win against Russia maybe. None of these wars have a conclusive win so hopefully a lesson there (to China?) is to think twice before going to another war. Though those lessons seem to be forgotten too quickly.

	▲	yurish 18 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I am puzzled why do you think the level of democracy in Russia has anything to do with the war in Ukraine. The US being democracy has not stopped them from kidnapping the foreign leader, plundering the country by stripping it of its oil resources and to unleash the war in the Middle East.
	▲	jmyeet 21 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Russia had a clear theory of victory for the Ukraine war. It's tiered. The ideal outcome was to install a puppet regime in Ukraine (like there used to be and is in Belarus). They have failed in this. Failing that, secure a land bridge to Crimea. If the war ends today, Russia has succeeded in this goal. My estimation is that Putin is waiting for this to happen. It's hard to get good information on the state of the Ukraine war because there is too much bad information out there. NATO Atlanticists and US imperialists push the narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of winning. Likewise, there's Russian propaganda that Ukraine is about to collapse. Consider this: we've heard that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse for over 4 years now. IT's funny that you mention Russia not embracing democracy because the West is responsible for that. When the former Soviet states sought guidance from the West, Western banks and governments simply enabled the looting of the former USSR creating the oligarchs we have today. State industries were sold to friends for a pittance (eg [1]). Russia's theory of victory is easy: just hold onto eastern Ukraine. The US has no theory of victory in Iran. None. Iran just has to survive. [1]: https://cepr.net/publications/the-looting-of-russia/

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MentalM a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia

I think that from a geopolitical perspective it is far more advantageous to let Ukraine lose the war, than to allow a situation in which, in 20 years, Muslims will destroy the world with nuclear weapon.

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marcus_holmes a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Putin has the same choices Trump had: face the music or start a new song.

Trump was under pressure about the Epstein files, so he started a war. So far, so normal. It's what politicians do. He thought it would be a simple war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Cuba.

Putin was under pressure, so started the Ukraine war. Again, he though it would be a simple quick war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Poland.

I'm coming to agree with the folks who think Europe has to actually do more than fight the proxy war in Ukraine. It has to actually hurt Russia for this to resolve. Putin cannot recognise his loss any more than Trump can, so he's just going to continue hurting people.

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swat535 16 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> This and Canada are just kneejerk reactions against the chaos of the Trump administration.

As a Canadian, I can promise you that this not a "knee jerk reaction".

Replacing TRUMP with a democrat isn't going to solve it. Canadians have realized that relying on United States is a national security risk, hence the government been building larger trader alliances with both EU and China.

Any American thinking that this is just a TRUMP thing is missing the forest for the trees.

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bawolff a day ago | parent | prev [-]

This hardly seems knee-jerk. Relations with USA has been deteriorating for a while now. At this point, i think most people no longer view this as a trump related fluke but the bew status quo, which is why canada is scrambling for alternatives.

> As for redefining the world order, that's what this war of choice in Iran will amount to. In the short-to-medium term it's going to redefine the Gulf security architecture. The refusal to restrain Israel probably means Russia will swallow the eastern chunk of Ukraine they occupy.

I couldn't disagree more. The cornerstone of American foreign policy in the middle east has been based around Israel for decades now. Despite how much they all hate each other, if the gulf monarchies see USA withdrawing from Israel, they are likely to worry they might be next.

That's not to say i think USA is being smart about the war - they clearly went in half-cocked without a plan or objectives. However totally ignoring the situation would have likely drawn the region into China's hands too.

I'm not sure how you are connecting the war in iran to the middle east. Increased oil prices? The link seems tenous.

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jmyeet a day ago | parent [-]

Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe.

Australia can sell raw materials anywhere but the Red Sea being closed makes it take longer and be more expensive and who is really going to demand raw materials in Europe when the energy crunch hits? And we're bouldering towards that energy crunch (both natural gas and diesel). One of Australia's biggest competitive advantages in selling raw materials to China has always been relative proximity. Lower shipping times and costs.

Yes, the US has used Israel as a weapon in the Middle East (since ~1967) but what kept Gulf powers in line was the supply of weapons (to prop up unpopular regimes) and the free flow of trade. This war has shown that the US cannot defend its own bases in the Gulf let alone any of its client states (sorry, "allies").

I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been.

The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now.

So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era). The quagmire of Afghanistan was a huge factor in the collapse and breakup of the USSR. This isn't like Vietnam, which we could simply walk away from. Iran won and the Israeli state in its current form is doomed.

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bawolff a day ago | parent | next [-]

> Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe.

Its going to be painful no doubt, but you can do lots of painful things when you don't have a choice. I think its ultimately up to the US if they force the issue.

> I believe there's a nonzero chance the Israeli state collapses within the next decade. That's how much things are shifting and what a blunder this has been.

Its the middle east, so anything is possible, but i think that is unlikely. Its on friendlier terms now with the gulf monarchies than at any other point in its history. Its big external threats (hezbollah, hamas, iran) took their swing - they did draw blood but they aren't really in a position to do it again. Its not all roses. Israel burned through massive amounts of soft power and is suffering a brain drain due to war, but their geopolitical position seems pretty good on the whole.

That is not to mention long term dynamics with increasing renewable deployments. What does oil market look like in 10-20 years? That alone could potentially reshape the middle east.

I suspect if Israel collapses it will be due to internal conflict. It seems like their political culture is becoming more and more factionalized.

> The GCC countries are going to have the redefine a new regional security architecture that includes Iran. That's inevitable at this point. If the US had been smart they simply would've admitted defeat ~5 months ago but they can't. Because of Israel. For now.

I dont think we are at the point where that is inevitable. Obviously this isn't going amazing for USA, but still at the end of the day, USA can keep this up for a long time. Its not clear that Iran can.

>So Iran is America's Afghanistan (USSR era)

Hardly. USA is not spending anywhere near as much money and lives as USSR was in Afghanistan. The biggest impact of this conflict is price at the pump and its not even that high. Without that, would the american public even notice?

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rsynnott a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> Canada is too intertwined with the US to truly divorce the US or even shift significant trade to Europe.

So in 1960, 70% of Ireland's exports went to the UK. By 2000, it was about 25%. It's now about 8%. It's _possible_ to break over dependency on the big neighbour.

Today, 75% of Canada's exports go to the US.

My view would be that this is a very unhealthy situation, and even in the absence of Trump should be something that Canada should be trying to address.

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jmyeet 21 hours ago | parent [-]

So in 40-66 years Ireland decoupled its economy from the UK? That's a pretty long timeframe.

Also, the two countries have a very different mix of exports. Canada's primary export is probably energy (it's at least top 3). A small part of that is, say, exporting electricity to northern states (eg from Quebec). You can't really send that anywhere else. The rest of that sector is really crude oil. A relatively small amount is exported by port from Vancouver. The rest goes to US refineries via pipelines.

You're talking a decades-long project to send that elsewhere. And for what? Oil is a global commodity. You'd be selling it to someone else and the US would be buying from somewhere else. What have you really achieved?

Canada also produces raw materials and, in particular, lumber. Now this is important for the US construction sector, particularly building houses. So who are you going to sell that to? US and Canada use lumber because it's cheap. In a lot of other places they don't because it's not readily available or there are other factors that disfavor lumber construction.

Another sector is auto parts that go to Big Three auto makers in Michigan. Where's that going to? Particularly with China eating that sector alive. 99% of cars would be Chinese if it wasn't for trade barriers.

	▲	rsynnott 20 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Well, I mean, realistically in 50 years oil exports presumably won’t really be a thing anyway. Canada is likely going to need to at least somewhat reorient away from resources. Obviously decoupling from the US would take time. But the best time to start is now.