By the summer of 2023 when Ukraine's big counteroffensive had failed my own view was that the situation was stalemated and Russia will wait until the West gets bored or the situation changes and Russia's geopolitical position improves. Russia has that option available to it in a way the West doesn't.

Sanctions in general don't work. They don't work against enemies. Arguably they only work against allies (eg apartheid South Africa). Sanctions were never going to work against Russia and Russia has more manpower to throw at the meat grinder than Ukraine does.

And that changing situation has come to Putin with the Iran War. The US has lost. It has been strategically and militarily defeated by a lesser regional power. It's just a matter of time before it accepts this loss.

Because of attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia has changed from a net diesel exporter to banning diesel exports and arguably being a diesel importer. That's a big problem that we're all about to learn. China too has banned the export of refined petroleum products (including diesel) for months now. Diesel prices are about to go way up and the US is now considering a ban on diesel exports. All this "energy nationalism" is going to torch Europe, Asian economies and South America. Just you wait.

By foolishly attacking Iran, Trump has made Russia's position much stronger. So yes, the Ukraine war predates the Iran war but the Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia. That's the point.

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YZF a day ago | parent | next [-]

Or maybe the lesson to Russia is that if the US can't win against Iran how is it going to win against Ukraine? Another angle to look at it is through who does China support (Russia and Iran?).

I think your perspective is interesting and not wrong. The weakness of the US (and the west) is emboldening Putin. I do still think the order of events starts with Russia, China and Iran's challenge the post USSR collapse status quo. In a parallel universe if Russia was able to embrace democracy and become a free country, and if China kept opening up and didn't reverse course, then we wouldn't have the Iran war at all (likely the regime in Iran would have long fallen). The world seemed to be on a course to more freedom, democracy, and prosperity, and less wars, when the Berlin wall fell. And then at some point we went backwards.

As to Putin and Russia it doesn't seem like he has a path to anything that looks like a win. How long he's going to persist is a good question. What is Iran's path forward here is also far from clear. I wouldn't want their sort of "win" myself. It's like Afghanistan's win against Russia maybe. None of these wars have a conclusive win so hopefully a lesson there (to China?) is to think twice before going to another war. Though those lessons seem to be forgotten too quickly.

	▲	yurish 18 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I am puzzled why do you think the level of democracy in Russia has anything to do with the war in Ukraine. The US being democracy has not stopped them from kidnapping the foreign leader, plundering the country by stripping it of its oil resources and to unleash the war in the Middle East.
	▲	jmyeet 21 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Russia had a clear theory of victory for the Ukraine war. It's tiered. The ideal outcome was to install a puppet regime in Ukraine (like there used to be and is in Belarus). They have failed in this. Failing that, secure a land bridge to Crimea. If the war ends today, Russia has succeeded in this goal. My estimation is that Putin is waiting for this to happen. It's hard to get good information on the state of the Ukraine war because there is too much bad information out there. NATO Atlanticists and US imperialists push the narrative that Ukraine is on the verge of winning. Likewise, there's Russian propaganda that Ukraine is about to collapse. Consider this: we've heard that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse for over 4 years now. IT's funny that you mention Russia not embracing democracy because the West is responsible for that. When the former Soviet states sought guidance from the West, Western banks and governments simply enabled the looting of the former USSR creating the oligarchs we have today. State industries were sold to friends for a pittance (eg [1]). Russia's theory of victory is easy: just hold onto eastern Ukraine. The US has no theory of victory in Iran. None. Iran just has to survive. [1]: https://cepr.net/publications/the-looting-of-russia/

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MentalM a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Iran war has made the Ukraine war much better for Russia

I think that from a geopolitical perspective it is far more advantageous to let Ukraine lose the war, than to allow a situation in which, in 20 years, Muslims will destroy the world with nuclear weapon.

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marcus_holmes a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Putin has the same choices Trump had: face the music or start a new song.

Trump was under pressure about the Epstein files, so he started a war. So far, so normal. It's what politicians do. He thought it would be a simple war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Cuba.

Putin was under pressure, so started the Ukraine war. Again, he though it would be a simple quick war, but that turned out not to be true. He's now under pressure from that war, so he's eyeing up Poland.

I'm coming to agree with the folks who think Europe has to actually do more than fight the proxy war in Ukraine. It has to actually hurt Russia for this to resolve. Putin cannot recognise his loss any more than Trump can, so he's just going to continue hurting people.