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jrflo 7 hours ago

Home prices are sticky on the way down, 25 basis points won't change much

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iamnothere 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Supply is way up and sales are way down, on average: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/sales-of-existing-single-f...

This could be the catalyst to lower prices if sellers get spooked, especially if gas prices keep going up.

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jrflo 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Your graph shows that home sales have been at a constant rate for the last 3 years. They are way down from 2020-2021, when covid plus low interest rates caused a home buying frenzy, but this is not new. We've been in this regime for the last 4ish years, 25 basis points is not going to change anything. In fact, interest rates are lower now than they were a year ago.

That's not to say that rising rates aren't a sign of bad things, the definitely are, it's just not going to make much of an impact with this magnitude of change.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds

	▲	iamnothere 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Sales have remained low (at GFC levels) while inventory has continued to climb. In other words supply is up and demand is flat. Doesn’t look good to me, but I’m not a professional market analyst. It all depends on how long buyers (in aggregate) are willing to hold out, or if they are simply unable to buy at these prices. And nobody really knows that.