Supply is way up and sales are way down, on average: https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/10/sales-of-existing-single-f...

This could be the catalyst to lower prices if sellers get spooked, especially if gas prices keep going up.

Your graph shows that home sales have been at a constant rate for the last 3 years. They are way down from 2020-2021, when covid plus low interest rates caused a home buying frenzy, but this is not new. We've been in this regime for the last 4ish years, 25 basis points is not going to change anything. In fact, interest rates are lower now than they were a year ago.

That's not to say that rising rates aren't a sign of bad things, the definitely are, it's just not going to make much of an impact with this magnitude of change.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds