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apt-get 3 hours ago

Not asserting this is definitely a Russian op (given the amount of simultaneous farmers' protests and all in NL today), but their modus operandi for foreign operations of this kind involves paying random thugs a few hundred to a couple thousand euros to carry out acts of sabotage using whatever items they have on hand. The items don't need to match, the people involved don't need to know each other.

edouard-harris 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Correct, this is their exact MO and has been for decades. "Random thug" recruitment notwithstanding, part of the point of such ops is to prove to themselves that they can, in fact, reach out and touch a target - i.e., exercising the entire operational chain from C&C down to the minutiae of execution. A kind of integration test for sabotage, if you will. (Not saying this specific incident is or isn't anything in particular, just commenting on the general MO.)

If one were in a charitable mood, one could think of this as a "just in case" measure of ongoing capability assurance in the event of a broader conflict. In a less charitable mood, one might imagine it as preparation for proactive action. In either case, if you don't do this kind of sub-threshold stuff at least occasionally, you often discover that when a real conflict erupts, the capabilities you thought you had are in fact literally or figuratively rusty. (See the Russian army's logistical debacle early in the Ukraine war for a recent example.)

Most top tier nation states do some version of this; each one has its own style. The Russians are somewhat unusual in that they care less than most who knows or suspects them of this kind of activity.

sandos 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Exactly this, and also they are trying to keep some deniability here, so variations are good.

hgomersall 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Why would you want to keep it deniable? What's the point in this sort of sabotage if nobody knows you did it?

DrScientist 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The ideal scenario is everyone suspects it's you but can't prove it.

You have both the desired threat, but no concrete biases for an official response.

Also an uncertainty limits action - it might be a random event, it could even be a false flag.

One of the problem's here is narratives are being spun by multiple actors and it depends on who you believe.

chmod775 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

You don't need a real basis for a response. There's nobody here enforcing any rules.

If you wanted you could claim you have evidence, without having any. Doesn't matter.

"This better stop or there will be sanctions, and if its not within your power to stop it, tough luck" is a valid response.

Whether that's wise is another question.

Here's a recent example where Germany so far claimed that it tied the attack to Russia, but whether that's actually true is anyone guess (since there's little publicly verifiable information released so far): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Leipzig_Airport_drone_att...

It wouldn't be terribly surprising if Russia was behind it, but on the other hand it wouldn't be the first false flag incident of this war either.

account42 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

Well yes technically countries can just attack others. In practice they need to justify those attacks to their allies and populace if they want to maintain the status quo with them. That's where "they started it, we're only defending ourselves" is very helpful.

chmod775 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

The response is typically sending diplomats home, cancelling agreements, and sanctions. Something proportional. Not immediate outright war.

hgomersall 41 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Right, but you absolutely need the suspicion. If it's too deniable, it rather loses efficacy. It seems in this situation it could be any number of actors, which rather dilutes any intended message.

spwa4 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> The ideal scenario is everyone suspects it's you but can't prove it.

Why? EU countries have shown time and time again they won't do anything. I mean for God's sake, Russia was caught sending THREE remote controlled flying bomb on a German airfield, with another one found by a passerby before it was launched.

They contained professionally made Russian explosives. There is no doubt who did it. This was not the first, or the 10th time they got caught. I mean Russia murdered someone in the UK with polonium, for God's sake.

The idea that the Kremlin is worried in the slightest that you can prove it's them is absurd. They leave their fingerprints knowing there will be no reaction.

brookst an hour ago | parent [-]

Because being too blatant will galvanize the public and create support for open war.

The goal is to ensure all reasonable people know, while keeping enough deniability that Russian-funded right-wing groups can sow doubt about attribution and response policy’s

They don’t care whether it can be proven in court or by people paying close attention. They care whether it can’t be denied even by their aligned agents in western countries.

vlovich123 27 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This isn’t a show of power. Sabotage works best when your target doesn’t even realize it was sabotage. Similarly it’s best if you misattribute blame because then you’re fighting the wrong party and looking for ghosts.

Russia throwing journalists out of windows or paining with Novachok - that’s a “it’s us, you can’t do anything about it, don’t fuck with us” power signal that benefits from “plausible” deniability - you can’t prove it was us.

hnlmorg 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Because otherwise it would be an act of war. At which point they might as well have just fired a rocket into the country.

vintermann 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If the main point is slowing/frustrating drone production?

It would honestly be kind of fair game to sabotage production of drones that would be used against you, even if they're made in a country you're not at war with --- if it wasn't for Russia having a lot of responsibility for that war in the first place (to put it mildly).

vincnetas 2 hours ago | parent [-]

what do you mean "fair game"? by the same logic russia attacking ukraine is also "fair game".

"hei cmon im just atacking my neighbor its fair game, what else should i do"

account42 14 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Let's say I pay someone to punch you int the face every day. Then one day when you punch me in the face do I have a right to complain?

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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vintermann 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I mean what I said: if you're being attacked by drones, then no one can fault you for trying to sabotage the production of those drones, even if they're made in a different country than the one which is sending them against you.

But, you can and should fault Russia for getting into that position in the first place, that their neighbor is attacking them back with drones.

vincnetas 2 hours ago | parent [-]

but why are you attacked by drones thats the million dollar question...

grim_io 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Russia is trying to avoid retaliation through stricter sanctions, for example.

ChrisMarshallNY 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They seem to be very good at "mob tactics."

No one can prove anything, for example, but anyone knows that people that piss Putin off, need to stay away from windows in high places.

vlovich123 26 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

That’s because the distinction between the Russian mob and the government is nonexistent

nico_h 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The windows are entirely blameless. If a window gets near you, it’s already too late, you’re now just a message “pour encourager les autres”.

the_mitsuhiko 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Doubt is always good.

nahgF an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

To achieve what exactly? All the Russians would get from this is BBC warmongering articles and increased resolve of EU politicians.

The latter is desired by Ukraine and by the US, which wants more proxies against Russia.

The only known operation was the Nord Stream sabotage done by Ukraine. I have enough of this. If the US is so desperate to weaken Russia, please attack through the Bering Strait and leave the EU alone.

kakacik 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There was recently this german lady reporter who posed as actively pro-Putin for few months and it didn't take long for fsb/gru to come to her online.

It started small, just check this or that, little favor there but soon escalated to proper spycraft. Some other folks reported having death threats against family. Its for peanuts, few hundred euros mostly. They just need to find the dumbest and most desperate folks to commit acts of treason.

somenameforme an hour ago | parent [-]

The chances of this being real are basically zero, or Russia would be getting double agented, and reverse intelling themselves, out the arse. Instead all we get are attempts to connect random events, of which there are endless viable suspects, to Russia.

It's fair to say that if one jumps in the middle of a fight, they should expect to get punched, but it's also fair to say that for now Russia has been avoiding throwing much in the way of punches.

wbeckler a minute ago | parent [-]

Here's the article in Germany about the incident: https://www.rtl.de/news/russische-spionage-rtl-reporter-unde...

tyrabound 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's odd that you would jump to "Russian op" and hedging by _not_ asserting that it is "definitely" one; but it very well could also be and arguably even is far more likely an act by someone who would benefit form scaring the public and manipulating the affected governments. I'm not going to assert at all, one way or another who it may be because it could be several actors with interests in producing outcomes of fear among the public and animating and manipulating the respective governments and the clowns in the EU to take actions without thinking.

It is really a rather common playbook of stoking fear and even instigating war not for direct outcomes that has been used innumerable times over history. Only it seems that the majority of people are incapable of seeing, accepting, or maybe just internalizing when they are being played, lied to, and manipulated for the benefit of others at their own expense.

One thing that logic would dictate though is that Russia would be extremely low on the list of suspects since they gain nothing by some minor event like this, are negatively affected in every manner possible by being in any way behind such actions, and they could simply just send barrages of missiles to hit actually meaningful targets if they ever become sick and tired of all the CIA/MI6 clowns thinking they can salami slice their way into conquering Russia and once the Germans and Poles have been whipped up to be the battering ram of minced meat again.

It's why we have so many catastrophic and calamitous events in our history because people never ask themselves who may be benefitting from the act that is immediately used to manipulate people through fear. In spite of having been told and explained a long time ago and many times since, you should always ask you who benefits, cui bono. Russia does not benefit from scaring the populace into supporting the murderous and war mongering governments and the maniacal ruling parasites that control them in order to profit from war as they send your children in to the meat grinder.

apt-get 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> One thing that logic would dictate though is that Russia would be extremely low on the list of suspects since they gain nothing and are negatively affected in every manner possible by being in any way behind such actions.

Or one could choose not to take this in isolation from all the acts of brazen and identified sabotage Russia does, slashing deep-sea cables in international waters with their shadow fleets, organizing psyop campaigns throughout the entire continent that can be traced back right to their government units, and so on :-)

Den_VR 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As they say, if you want peace then prepare for war.

willy_k 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Might wanna update your facts on that pipeline.

apt-get 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm referring to telecom cables in nordic and baltic waters, not nordstream.

willy_k an hour ago | parent [-]

I can’t read apparently, apologies

ailef 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Just like North Stream 2? /s

Muromec 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

\One thing that logic would dictate though is that Russia would be extremely low on the list of suspects since they gain nothing and are negatively affected in every manner possible by being in any way behind such actions.

They are known for actions that negatively affect them and everyone around. That's kinda their whole thing.

smallstepforman 2 hours ago | parent [-]

[Quote] They are known for actions that negatively affect them and everyone around. That's kinda their whole thing. [/quote]

You honestly cannot be that gullible?

lioeters an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

The ruling class in Europe needs this war for economic reasons. They're orchestrating and selling it to the public by constant fear mongering and provoking conflict.

Even in a relatively intelligent crowd like this forum, people are gullible and easily guided to hate the Other: red ("communists", Russia, China); brown (immigrants, Muslims, Iran); or green ("far left", environmental and civil rights activists). They hate us for our freedoms!

Be afraid, people, and keep funnelling billions of your tax money into the pockets of the rich who profit from literal conspiracy and mass murder. No wonder we have endless conflict and fascism on the rise around the world. There's so much money to be made from war and hate, defrauding the public for generations.

How can we not see it, it's the same playbook again and again. One day we will have to face the true evil, the traitors of humanity, the enemy within.

aldous 40 minutes ago | parent [-]

The last thing ‘the ruling class in Europe needs’ is a pan European war! Stability and the system that stability enables is what has put them into positions of power and prosperity in the first place. They actively don’t want outright war and Russia knows this, which is why Russia continually provokes and gets away with acts of sabotage.