> Will AI replace developers? The Stanford data shows a tilt toward seniority rather than mass displacement: entry for 22 to 25 year olds is suffering, older workers are growing. WEF expects a net gain of 78 million jobs by 2030.

As a 42 years old web developper, this situation gives me headaches. I feel both with new superpowers and dangerously threatened. I feel we will need much less developpers and yet I can imagine some years where a developper will be able to handle much larger projects.

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Maxion 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I'm pretty convinced that manual coding will be done by late 2027 for at least webdev. At that point the optimal workflow will be coders controlling agents.

Not too far after it will be coders controlling agents who control agents who do the work.

We're in for a very tumultuous few years

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codenesium 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's not done now? I haven't written code in months.

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orangedog 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The huge apps that my coworkers build out with minimal human input makes me scared to be a web dev in this environment. Just way too much can get automated.

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dakolli 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah completely unmaintainable code that cant handle more than 1k users before it collapses on itself. And quite probably so ugly its literally impossible to use.

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orangedog 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That only matters if you need to support 1k users. Tons of software doesn't and if you can spit out a web app in a few hours a lot of companies are going to do that.

I'm sure there is still a pot for really high quality stuff but it's a tradeoff a lot of companies don't care. But the interfaces - they aren't ugly, they're very usable and complete, which is the main reason I think web dev is in trouble. It'd take me 10x the time to do it myself.

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dakolli 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Simple web apps, the kind you're describing have never been difficult, they were never what kept SWEs employed.

I'm not even sure what you're talking about when you say "web apps", because the kind of "web apps" that have kept SWEs employed are created by large organizations that have large requirements. You sound like you don't know what you're talking about. Companies also aren't going to just stop growing, iterating and improving, which requires expertise. Im worth more than ever with AI, my value as a SWE has only been increasing.

You people seriously need to stop using LLMs because your brains are devolving like taxi cabs drivers who had parts of their brains responsible for navigation atrophy after the advent of GPS.

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orangedog 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I don't get why you're being so rude. What's the point?

For the record, I hardly use these models. I've simply seen that they can replace existing web apps. That hurts the market for web devs, most orgs aren't building out large apps they are building out smallish ones and generative models do that today.

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dakolli 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Sorry, Ive been hearing these exact same arguments for 3 years now and its always extermely divorced from reality. Its starting to get very tiring, its hard not to be rude at a certain point.

Don't go around telling people their careers are in peril when you clearly have no clue what you're talking about. What do you expect?

	▲	orangedog 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		You've identified a very specific type of web dev, one that works on perf critical apps in a corp environment and said corp cares about perf and quality. Tons of people simply don't work in those environments and unfortunately this threatens their career. I work in an environment where we can vibecode 4/5 of our web apps because they are either small enough or the perf doesn't matter. Or, I've looked under the hood and these are writing endpoints that would take me 3x the amount of time it would take it to use the same libraries. You say it's divorced from reality, I'm saying it's just what I've directly observed. I'm glad it doesn't affect you, but you don't have any kind of statistical measurement (nor do I) to know how much of the market this impacts. I do know for a lot of the web dev I did pereviously, I could do it viea these models today.
	▲	2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		[deleted]

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y-c-o-m-b 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah I've been at that stage since Opus 4.6 pretty much. There's still a lot of back and forth in the conversation on complex tasks, but I have not written any code. We are working on a MASSIVE project for our multi-billion dollar client and the whole team is completely using AI. Even the UX guys and our project managers are making the prototypes they want us to implement by vibe coding it first in a static app. I haven't seen Figma usage in months.

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aerodexis 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

yea - but did you read it?

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chinathrow 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> few years

I'd say decades, not years.

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lolakutty 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>We're in for a very tumultuous few years

How can I bet a shit load of money against this?

	▲	MattDamonSpace 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Go long the market

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dakolli 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You must have incredibly low standards for quality if you think manual coding will be finished any time soon, web dev or any.

secondly, using llms well still requires you to be a great programmer. Y'all are losing the plot.

Also, just because its easier to do doesnt mean everyone is suddenly going to want to do it. There's still always going to be only a small percentage of thr world that likes to build things.

Have you seen the code these things produce? Just because it compiles/ runs/ loads does not mean its durable. Its wild you people have these opinions, and it leads me to belive you have no idea what you're talking about.

There is mass dunning kruger due to llms, and people are speaking with way too much authority about things they do not understand. I hate this website.

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3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[deleted]

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vouaobrasil 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> I feel both with new superpowers and dangerously threatened.

In some ways, having a superpower is not all that great because then you are forced by the prisoner's dilemma to use it. And if you think about it, it comes at a cost: a higher mental strain over a long period of time.

To use a physical analogy: a workout machine at the gym is very likely to assist you in targeting specific muscles compared to just lifting stuff you need to lift, but it also allows you to push that specific muscle group harder and thus increase the chances of injury to that muscle group precisely because it's so targeted. I think AI is like that with the brain.

(I'll add that it's perfectly possible to work out safely at the gym with lots of equipment. But I've spent years at the gym and I've seen a ton of injuries because the temptation to push a specific muscle group hard is there. And, AI is much worse because with AI, there is an economic incentive to push harder, whereas at the gym it's in your best interest to dial back...only sometimes people like to show off to their gym buddies.)

	▲	stephen_cagle 3 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I wonder if LLM's might be closer to the weight belt in terms of lifting? It is a tool that lets you exceed your unassisted limits. If you kept doing the other things you would be no worse for using it, but if you only train with it I am not sure you would be a very well rounded lifter. The weight belt lets you do a few lifts better, at potentially the cost of being weaker than would be required if you did that left unassisted? Might be a bad metaphor honestly. Aside (shower thought): A little of a tangent, but I have always felt that the weight belt is kind of odd in that it has become completely accepted to use one for the deadlift and squat. Like, why did we decide that this one form of brace is acceptable but others enhancements are not "real" weightlifting? Why not an incline plane? Why not a pulley? I'm not at all arguing for or against the usage of the weight belt. I just find it odd that it has become so accepted; seems curious how we decided to draw the line here and not there.
	▲	Synthetic7346 an hour ago \| parent \| prev \| next [-]
		What's the AI equivalent of calisthenics, so you can train multiple muscle groups at once and reduce risk of injury?
	▲	ipsod 2 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I don't get that experience at all. LLM's both relieve burden and improve speed. The only trouble I have with AI is when I run out. That, and I miss coding... but... this new thing is its own puzzle, and I still do lots of pseudo-code and such, to talk to the AI, which kind of scratches the itch.