I was a biophysicist and experimental biologist for decades, I designed viral vectors and cell therapies, etc. What protects us here isn't our ignorance vs an "ASI".

It's the fact that the complexity of molecular physics scales exponentially in particle number. No amount of thinking is going to punch through that. You've got to do experiments. The slow loop through reality is not optional, and in the case of "superviruses" would require a lot of iterative experimental development in humans.

(And please knock off the bio infohazard act - I routinely get asked about scenarios that AIxBio safety people cook up and they always involve some howler misunderstanding of basic facts in biology or medicine. Just talk about an idea if you have it.)

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andai 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>(And please knock off the bio infohazard act - I routinely get asked about scenarios that AIxBio safety people cook up and they always involve some howler misunderstanding of basic facts in biology or medicine. Just talk about an idea if you have it.)

Yeah, nice try ;)

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areoform 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Hey there, is there some way for me to get in touch with you? I'm writing a piece on the topic, "Have you ever tried making a bioweapon?"

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naasking 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

We're already doing those experiments. Tailor made mRNA vaccines targeted to one's own specific cancer mutations can be bought right now. The techniques are getting more sophisticated and more targeted every year. Our ability to predict what happens at these levels is improving by leaps and bounds too thanks to AI like AlphaFold. Anyone can be reasonably confident that no AI or teen can do this now or in the next few years, but are you really so confident what might be possible in 10 years?

	▲	alevskaya 10 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I worked in immuno-oncology: cancer vaccines work in melanoma where many things work because of the neoantigen abundance, they've generally been very mixed in efficacy. And even BionTech's BNT111 failed in melanoma! We have hope for these approaches but the reality of this stuff is way more nuanced than you think it is. Alphafold can't reliably predict thermal energy landscapes or make functional predictions - and how could it? It wasn't trained on anything that could capture structure - function relationships. Again, most people just have no idea how hard - fundamentally hard - molecular physics is to predict, and how necessary experiments are for any development of biological systems.
	▲	owebmaster 9 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		> but are you really so confident what might be possible in 10 years? Do you think we are finally 10 years away from curing baldness?