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lenerdenator a day ago

I'm trying to think of the number of people I (an American) know who considered trade with Canada to be a real issue.

The answer I keep coming back to is I know zero people who considered that.

Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector? Yes. Can tariffs kind of help with that? Also yes. Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in business leaders, which is a far heavier lift, but this at least puts a number to it.

Does picking a tariff fight with Canada, our closest cultural ally, solve the above problem to the point where it justifies the costs? Hell no.

bryanlarsen a day ago | parent | next [-]

America's trade imbalance with Canada is basically crude oil. Which they get at a significant discount because it's much more expensive to export anywhere else.

America then refines it and exports it as finished product or uses it internally -- one of the reasons why America has relatively cheap gasoline prices.

This "trade imbalance" is a massive benefit to America.

kevin_nisbet a day ago | parent [-]

I've seen this point in a few different places and I don't know that it's understood as widely as it should be.

So just to expand on why that's the case. As a net producer of energy right now, the US produces more than it consumes. This is why it get's pointed out, that as a net producer, the trade deficit with Canada is also a surplus (or reduction in deficit) on the other side with other countries. Yes it may not be the same physical barrel that is exported vs consumed, but in a fungible way they're commodities. If you separate out that portion, we (Canada) then buy more goods from the US then we sell. And that's also just the goods trade, not including services which the US also sells more of to Canada than the other way around.

bryanlarsen a day ago | parent | next [-]

Another poster pointed out that Trump is complaining about the trade deficit at the same time he's trying to increase that trade deficit by building the Keystone XL pipeline....

jgilias a day ago | parent [-]

That’s not surprising. He’s, like, really dense.

a day ago | parent | prev [-]
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Terr_ a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Does the US have a trade imbalance that causes problems, particularly in our manufacturing sector?

I have a trade imbalance with the local grocery store: I buy lots of vegetables, but they don't buy mine.

My employer has a trade imbalance with me: They buy lots of my labor, but I never buy any of theirs.

The term has become unhelpfully pejorative, the "imbalance" is often desirable and beneficial.

voidfunc a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Its all a precursor to setting up a reason to invade Canada. If Canada moves on with a threat to do something with energy then buckle up.

b112 a day ago | parent [-]

That'd be the dumbest thing the US has ever done. The next 50 years would be as Vietnam, with people indistinguishable from Americans, sneaking across the border 8000km long, to explode, and kill, and destroy. A Vietnam that never ends, and is local.

Not to mention, Canada can make nukes if it wants to. It just doesn't. It gave them up, but still has the plans.

swat535 a day ago | parent [-]

I don't think it would be a military invasion, more like an economical one.

Canada relies on US and is isolated from the rest of the world, US can strangle it economically if need be until it folds.

They can also cause divisions inside the country and disrupt it.. we're seeing this already in Alberta.

Canada is vulnerable.

ncphillips a day ago | parent | next [-]

I don’t buy that Canada is isolated and reliant at all

b112 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Canada is already mostly through, setting up trade agreements with the entire rest of the world. It's amazing what can be accomplished, when it's clear that everybody wants to bypass a certain country.

The whole world is going to trade with each other, and just ignore the United States. It'll be a rough five to ten years of transition, but there's been lots of economic situations like that. The US is the past, it's relevance waning.

The US is also far more vulnerable. It's 90% of the way to a civil war already.

Alberta has been going on for decades.

ajmurmann a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Every side benefits from a trade. That's why the trade is made. The US is able to afford a trader imbalance because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Other countries are subsidizing our trade imbalance. It's a huge win for the US.

Tariffs will not bring back manufacturing. They increase prices of inputs, reduce incentive for competitiveness and invite retaliation. Look how well tariffs have worked for Brazil and Argentina or for the US under Smoot Hawley.

lenerdenator a day ago | parent [-]

> The US is able to afford a trader imbalance because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Other countries are subsidizing our trade imbalance. It's a huge win for the US.

The geopolitical calculations regarding China and the socioeconomic conditions of working class people in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States would beg to differ.

You need to have at least some control of your own manufacturing destiny for national security reasons, and you need somewhere for people with a high school diploma to work or they start dying deaths of despair.

ajmurmann a day ago | parent | next [-]

I agree on the security aspect. However, tariffs aren't gonna fix that but will make it worse. We need to remove red take and lean into projects like Port Alpha and California Forever. We also need to work with our allies who are already strong on manufacturing instead of alienating them at every step possible.

The job situation is unfortunate but these jobs will not come. China has lost more jobs to automation than the US has to China. If we want people to prosper we need to build housing where the economy is and encourage people to move there.

While we have lost tons of factory jobs, we have created lots of service jobs that require similar skills. There has been a boom around jobs like solar installation, HVAC and similar. They just aren't as visible because it's a little bit everywhere, rather than a company or industry town.

SmirkingRevenge a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Also FWIW - the US is the second largest manufacturer in the world, only behind China due to it's larger population. Our productivity per worker blows China away (though they are catching up) and is the best in the world. We manufacture plenty and do it well.

This idea that we have lost manufacturing and we need some push to onshore it all again is... well... another manufactured problem that isn't.

Terr_ a day ago | parent [-]

Or any rate it's mischaracterizing and confusing (A) "we miss having lots of good paying manufacturing jobs" with (B) "America needs to manufacture and export more widgets."

It doesn't matter what the trade policy is: Those amounts/types of jobs are gone and won't come back with demand--not unless something else happens too, like outlawing robots and making unions mandatory.

HDThoreaun 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in business leaders

Goods are imported because business is a competition and consumers prefer cheap imported goods. Its not like american executives flatly want to offshore, if a competitor does and they dont their customers will leave. The only solution business leaders can have here is collusion, which is illegal. If we want goods to be manufactured domestically it is on us as consumers to buy domestic products over cheap imported ones.

SmirkingRevenge a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mostly agree, except that trade imbalances are not problems and don't really cause problems.

Buying and selling don't need to be equal between buyers and sellers, and it's really just an incoherent idea.

convolvatron a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

at this point one can't really assume it was about picking a tariff fight with Canada any more than the Gaza peace plan was about bringing peace to Gaza. guy is just a shit-thrower. that's his one move, throw some shit and see what he can get out of it. walk into a restaurant and claim that he's been treated so badly they're going to have to sign the whole thing over to him, and settle for 10 free meals and a pack of steaks from the walk-in.

apercu a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

But does America have a trade imbalance with Canada?

Canada has things that our economy needs desperately (e.g. potash).

cperciva a day ago | parent | next [-]

But does America have a trade imbalance with Canada?

Yes, because Canada has a lot of cheap oil which America wants. If you deduct oil, the trade deficit runs the other way.

fraserphysics a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes! US agriculture (Mostly a red state industry) needs potash. Google AI says that most potash comes from (in order) Canada ("is the primary global exporter and supplies nearly 80% of U.S. imports"), Russia, Belarus, China, and "smaller volumes are supplied by countries [...]".

If I were king of Canada, I would restrict supplies of such materials needed by red states.

lenerdenator a day ago | parent | prev [-]

I'd say that the cultural links are so strong that any actual accounting for trade imbalance is just not worth thinking about.

Some things are bigger than money.

... which, come to think of it, is something that the current administration doesn't understand, at least from a "personal net worth" standpoint, and explains why this is happening to begin with.

Mezzie a day ago | parent [-]

That's one thing that I find so confusing about this. Even if we assume that the administration genuinely doesn't care and does want to annex/culturally subjugate Canada, it's really not easy to separate the two cultures and escalating this to a certain degree is going to prompt domestic backlash.

I was born in America. About half of my ancestors lived in Canada on both sides of my family, I know my Canadian cousins, I spent time in Canada growing up/was taught Canadian history as well as American history, I have a Canadian education and half of my professional network is Canadian, etc. I'm eligible for dual citizenship and am pursuing it now, as are other members of my family, whereas we never bothered before because the separation never seemed to matter. With the recent change in Canadian citizenship laws, I'd estimate at least 25% of the Great Lakes population is eligible for dual citizenship at this point.

One of my parents and some of my siblings are Ojibwe/Anishinaabe. My paternal cousins are all French Catholic. (My dad's parents were Protestant but my aunt married into an old French Catholic family and converted.)

I don't even really know how I would separate out the two nations' influence, and that's true of a lot of people, especially those of us whose families have lived here since before America and Canada existed.

carefulfungi a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As an American, I don't see see how you can separate this trade talk from the constant, explicit threats to Canadian sovereignty by Trump - threats he's carried out in reality against Iran, Venezuela, and Cuba. And now economically against Canada.

It isn't just "which Americans consider trade with Canada to be a real issue," it is "which Americans think Canada should become a territory of the United States."

It's just plainly absurd. It is inexplicable to me that Congress doesn't act. And infuriating to me that my representatives in Congress don't do more (even though they are in the opposition.)

senderista a day ago | parent [-]

I don't believe that annexing Canada is really a MAGA issue, even though they may claim to support it. I think it's just an inexplicable Trumpian obsession like Greenland.

enaaem a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It became an issue when Canada did not bow down to Trump's 51st state demand. With Trump's vindictive nature and narcissistic disorder, you get this situation. It is actually completely unsurprising if you think about it.

mschuster91 a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> Really, you need to instill some sort of sense of duty to country in business leaders, which is a far heavier lift, but this at least puts a number to it.

The bigger problem is, when consumers have the choice between cheap crap from Aliexpress et al and (vastly) more expensive made-in-<own country>, usually only the affluent who want to show off will be able to choose the latter.

And that is a socially explosive thing in the long term... the masses, especially the rural ones, really do not like it if they feel that they can only afford subpar crap while the "rich urban librul elite" gets access to the good stuff.

That is the stuff that in the best case fuels populist movements, in the worst case revolutions.

(And on top of that, often enough "made-in-<own country>" is bordering the legally required limit on domestic production or is outright just slapping a label and repackaging the Thing)