Programming with AIs requires new architectural structures designed around the all-too-small context windows of the AIs themselves. Highly modular, highly semantic, highly traceable, good at deleting and refactoring/removing things they no longer need, good at identifying the core truths/principles/designs they need to uphold, good at recognizing what is mere interface from architecture from data.

This is the great orchestrator game. It might be the last game. I dont think it lands precisely in our previous "best practices" though, and I don't think it's trivial to solve for. I also don't think it's going to be a human-centric design. I think we're generally better off rethinking fundamentals and designing from the ground up on this one. I think it's also a lot of fun to start thinking in these new ways.

There will always be programming, just like there will always be oil painters and historians. But this is about to get industrialized into stable emerging factory forms, and there's a lot of ways to design those right now. And after that us artisans will either need to find new unfinished aspects of programming-like design or retire. At least take solace that the rest of the world will basically simultaneously be doing so too.

Great take, two things come to mind:

First, the "all too small context window" reminds me of GetRight, mp3pro and a lot of other artifacts we invented in the 80s and 90s to deal with the limited internet bandwidth of then. We created artifacts to "achieve things" with the limited technology at hand. In 2026, ive got a 500 mbps simetric home connection. The same way, RAGs and all related stuff are artifacts to help us deal with today's tech limitations. In 10 years, it will be a non issue.

Second, I agree on the architectural patterns. Building (commercial) software will become a real Engineering career. Engineers will define the blueprints of the functionality of software, as well as the "materials" (technology, practices to use, measurement limits, ranges, etc) of tge software to be built, the same way Architects and Civil Engineers do when designing a Skyscraper or a bridge to be built.

As you very well put it, there will still be the "artisan" programmer, who builds whatever code by hand. But that will be as a hobby or some personal project.