Great take, two things come to mind:

First, the "all too small context window" reminds me of GetRight, mp3pro and a lot of other artifacts we invented in the 80s and 90s to deal with the limited internet bandwidth of then. We created artifacts to "achieve things" with the limited technology at hand. In 2026, ive got a 500 mbps simetric home connection. The same way, RAGs and all related stuff are artifacts to help us deal with today's tech limitations. In 10 years, it will be a non issue.

Second, I agree on the architectural patterns. Building (commercial) software will become a real Engineering career. Engineers will define the blueprints of the functionality of software, as well as the "materials" (technology, practices to use, measurement limits, ranges, etc) of tge software to be built, the same way Architects and Civil Engineers do when designing a Skyscraper or a bridge to be built.

As you very well put it, there will still be the "artisan" programmer, who builds whatever code by hand. But that will be as a hobby or some personal project.