| ▲ | RandomLensman 3 hours ago |
| Germany cut off Russian gas? Gazprom suspended supply indefinitely via NS1 before it was destroyed. |
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| ▲ | goobatrooba an hour ago | parent | next [-] |
| Markets are now committed than a single pipeline. Germany was importing most gas through other channels - pipelines through Eastern and Southern Europe and shipping - as well as of course plenty of oil. While the NortStream cut had a significant short term impact it took much more effort to wean the country off all the other routes. |
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| ▲ | 1239176 20 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That is a half truth. A turbine was broken, repaired in Canada, which required a lot of bureaucracy. Then the turbine was shipped to Germany. Then the Russians started their own bureaucracy and came up with excuses why the turbine could not be installed. During that time Nord Stream was blown up. The point is moot, since Putin has offered multiple times to open the remaining intact pipe: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-... And the broken pipes can be repaired, as was determined in the LLoyds lawsuit recently. I'm not saying that reopening would be reliable, but it would be one diversification away from US and Qatar dependencies. The US just cut the EU off from Qatar gas. |
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| ▲ | freehorse 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo. |
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| ▲ | RandomLensman 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1? | | |
| ▲ | freehorse 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly. | | |
| ▲ | uecker 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | But it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman an hour ago | parent [-] | | What exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas? | | |
| ▲ | uecker 5 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Russia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. |
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| ▲ | bluGill 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?). Just because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Accepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there. Edit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion. | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | It doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.) Politics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Germany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.) | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option. There are consequences for it that though. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman an hour ago | parent [-] | | Sorry, but I think it is absurd to say there was a Russian reaction because Germany did not join their invasion of Ukraine, | | |
| ▲ | bluGill an hour ago | parent [-] | | The absurdity is intentional. However it is still correct. If Germany had joined Russia (and got away with it!), there is every reason to think the pipeline would still be flowing. | | |
| ▲ | emsign 3 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Ukraine would have blown up the pipeline anyway. And the land pipelines would have been cut off to Germany by the Eastern Europeans. So no, the gas would not still be flowing with a high probability. That's so absurd. |
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| ▲ | inigyou an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Probably not directly invading, but there was a strong possibility of Germany supporting the Russian invasion, just as they're doing with the invasion of Iran. | | |
| ▲ | emsign 4 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | That was never considered by anyone in German politics. It's the first time I'm hearing about this here in these posts. | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There was absolutely no possibility for Germany supporting the Russian invasion. | | |
| ▲ | inigyou 41 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Well I mean they already did support the invasion for a while by buying their gas. |
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| ▲ | igl 40 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | A strong possibility? Where do you get your news from? | | |
| ▲ | netsharc 24 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I think what grandparent is very very fucking poorly trying to say is, Germany/EU could've accepted the "annexation" of Ukraine like it did Crimea in 2014. "Bad Putin! But what can we do." |
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| ▲ | pydry 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Canada sanctioned the repaired gas turbines needed to operate NS1. They flip flopped on their decision some time later though. This was spun as a Russian decision, but western countries were clearly trying to force Germany's hand. |
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| ▲ | Paradigma11 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | If you take a look at ng prices you will see that the prices went up more than half a year before Russias invasion of Ukraine: https://www.macrotrends.net/3235/eu-natural-gas-prices The reason for this was because Gazprom stopped supplying the spot market and also bought storage capacity and kept it empty. All of that only made sense after the invasion to better blackmail Europe. It was their bad luck that China allowed them to attack only after the Olympics which took most of the force out of that blow. Anyway there was no sane way to continue this business relationship. | |
| ▲ | stefan_ 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | And then Russia refused to install the turbine, proving it was a ploy all along. Like the maintenance in the first place. Which is why they acquired gas storage in Germany, then ran it low timed with their illegal war of aggression. This is a theme of course; Russia invented another gas crisis every few years with Ukraine. It should have been a warning sign when they settled them by taking payment in the form of Soviet-era cruise missiles. The gas was never cheap, either; apart from the money spent now to restrain the military buildup and invasion it financed, even at the height of supplies it was much higher price than China is paying, a price sustained by Russia using military force and more to restrain other (Asian) countries from supplying to Europe. (This was obvious to everyone, right? A single majority supplier nation state charging a cheap price out of the kindness of their heart? No, of course not; neither cheap nor kind. It was a monopoly, built on blood.) | | |
| ▲ | pydry an hour ago | parent [-] | | They installed it and then they took the pipeline down for planned maintenance. it's a little rich to accuse them of playing games with gas after the stunt Canada pulled and most especially after a western partner subsequently blew up the pipeline and blamed it on Russia. Clearly certain western allies decided that Germany couldnt be trusted to make its own decisions about where Germany gets its energy. | | |
| ▲ | RandomLensman an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | They reopened the pipeline after the planned maintenance. Then they said there was another issue and suspended supply indefinitely, and then the pipeline got destroyed. | |
| ▲ | stefan_ an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Prices going up 1000%? Time for maintenance! If you want to see their approach to maintenance while prices and needs are high, watch them put oil refineries back in operation days after drone hits. | | |
| ▲ | pydry 27 minutes ago | parent [-] | | "Our allies pushed our gas prices up 1000% how dare you not cancel your pre-scheduled maintenance!" |
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| ▲ | RandomLensman 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I don't think the turbine that was serviced in Canada was causal there. The turbine thing was earlier, as far as I recall it. Gazprom announced its decision in early Sep 2022, btw. |
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