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c7b 3 hours ago

And what does taking it seriously entail?

Chance-Device 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In the near term handling the transition. Jobs will be lost, careers ended, people won’t be able to reskill quickly enough. At the same time AI is an enormous opportunity to uplift living standards, but nobody has the logistics of this figured out.

We need to figure out how to restructure the global economy. How does UBI work internationally, if the AI companies are taking revenue in the US? What’s the tax base for it? What does that say about international trade and protectionism? Do countries end up splitting into different trading blocks based on their level of access and legality of AI (I assume some will ban it outright)?.

How does intellectual property work in an AI generated future? What about healthcare advances, who gets to own those?

What about meaning, what about purpose? How do we replace the work ethic that tells us we are our jobs and idleness is immoral? How do you replace “What do you do?” As one of the first questions you ask a new person?

That sort of thing.

bubblemoth 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

What pressure is there to push for any of these changes? I see AI advocates discussing the concept of UBI, but I can't imagine a world where the United States would ever pass this sort of legislation. I mean, congress can barely pass a budget each year.

If you are correct, I expect corporations to reap massive profits while most Americans try to find a way to survive in a world where they are obsolete.

Chance-Device an hour ago | parent | next [-]

There is whatever pressure you bring to bear on it. As long as you are still living in a democracy your vote is the pressure you can apply. If the parties that exist won’t represent you, make new ones that will. Do something rather than deciding it’s both impossible and up to other people anyway.

azinman2 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I also don’t understand why UBI is desirable. Putting everyone on welfare means everyone is poor. This won’t end well, and it’s certainly not the case that 99% of the population will let a tiny number of people remove their income in favor of pennies for all. Political violence will come first, easily.

striking 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think this too is a kind of denial. As in, while some are in denial about the usefulness of AI, others are in denial about whose living standards are actually going to be uplifted.

And it's sad, really, because I think these two groups would make a great pairing if they could stop arguing against one another for a moment. They'll both be impacted about as much and probably have the same ultimate goals (to lead dignified lives).

But it seems these days everyone is more interested in Kayfabe and feeling like they're in the right than working together, so maybe I should just keep quiet rather than attract the ire of both groups...

throwaway0123_5 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> others are in denial about whose living standards are actually going to be uplifted.

I don't know if it is fair to say they're in denial. For my part, I don't expect life to get much better for regular people (especially short term), but that doesn't mean we shouldn't work to try to make it happen.

Chance-Device 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Asking questions about policy and values and pushing to have those resolved in positive ways is about as far away from denial as you can get. It’s possibly the only useful thing an ordinary person can do.

What a lot of people want to do, and I’m not saying that you’re one of them, is to assume that a positive outcome is impossible and either do nothing or loudly yell that the world is ending. Neither is particularly useful.

Or, as I said above, others just deny that there’s anything to see here and try to get people to move along.

striking 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Asking politely is not how we got a 40-hour work week or workers' comp or most other labor standards we take for granted, just historically speaking. I think a positive outcome is very likely, and I think it will be a lot more work than loudly yelling, but I don't think anything will happen if we try to build everything up from first principles instead of taking a moment to consult history as many are wont to do in this AI era.

HarHarVeryFunny 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The AI companies themselves, who are highly motivated to sell AI as overall positive for society, notwithstanding some security/etc risks, and who have economists on the payroll to think about things like this, do not seem to have found any possible positive outcome to present.

Shane Legg (DeepMind co-founder), one of the more intelligent and thoughtful people you'll find in the industry, could only offer "it's a tough problem - we need to think about it" when recently interviewed by Hannah Fry.

On the surface the most likely outcome for AI allowed to replace jobs is extraordinarily negative, especially since it is a general capability technology, not a specific one where displaced workers can just move to another field. Once AI becomes more capable it will be able to do the vast majority of white collar jobs, including any new ones that may appear as a result of AI. As Shane Legg put it, "if your job can be done remotely, sitting in front of a computer, then it can probably be replaced by AI".

Not only does AI threaten to replace ALL the white collar jobs, but it is rapidly going after blue collar (factory jobs, driving jobs) and pink collar ones (Japanese robotics for elder-care) as well.

If a positive outcome (which doesn't include putting displaced workers on welfare - UBI) is possible, then it sure would be nice to hear it, and the silence from the AI companies, and government for that matter, is deafening.

Chance-Device 31 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

UBI probably is the positive outcome, though it may not seem like it to begin with. Initially it will likely be stigmatised and under-resourced, but as a larger proportion of people move out of work and onto UBI that stigma will drop and the resources should grow.

Eventually UBI will be the norm, and if the living standards of a person on UBI is as good as yours or mine today, that will be an enormous win for everyone. It’s like pensions, once these were only for the elderly poor, now they’re a right for everyone in most developed countries.

It’s also interesting that for most of human history leisure time was the point of life, and only in recent modernity has work come to be the meaning of someone’s existence.

UBI has to be commensurate with production being automated. That’s a big logistical problem, if you think building datacenters is a challenge try bringing about radical abundance, but even so it’s not insurmountable. It just needs to be taken on as project and not seen as an impossibility.

So much of this is not about what is possible so much as what people believe is possible. We can do anything if we try.

orangecat 37 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

do not seem to have found any possible positive outcome to present

See "Machines of Loving Grace" by Dario Amodei: https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace.

HarHarVeryFunny 21 minutes ago | parent [-]

This seems more a fantasy than a considered likely outcome. He basically admits that humans will eventually mostly all be out of a job, replaced by AI, but then says (Gemini's summary) that there will be:

"Massive Economic Abundance: Because AI will exponentially grow the total economic pie, overall resource scarcity will diminish. The fundamental challenge shifts from producing wealth to distributing wealth."

So how do we go from everyone out of work, no income to spend on food, or the goods and services that the AI is producing, to "massive economic abundance"?!

It's like the meme:

Step 1: Create AI

Step 2: AI takes all the jobs

Step 3: ???

Step 4: Profit! (massive economic abundance)

What is step 3?

cautiouscat 11 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I’ll be the first to call myself cynical.

> In the near term handling the transition. Jobs will be lost, careers ended, people won’t be able to reskill quickly enough. At the same time AI is an enormous opportunity to uplift living standards, but nobody has the logistics of this figured out.

> We need to figure out how to restructure the global economy. How does UBI work internationally, if the AI companies are taking revenue in the US? What’s the tax base for it? What does that say about international trade and protectionism? Do countries end up splitting into different trading blocks based on their level of access and legality of AI (I assume some will ban it outright)?.

UBI in the United States is never going to happen in time. If it happens at all. We don’t even get universal healthcare. I think people who think AI will be a net positive for humanity are also in some sort of denial.

In a different US political climate I would entertain it. If these frontier labs weren’t so clearly going after the money, I would entertain it.

LLMs are clearly a step up for capitalists so I just can’t see any inclusion of LLMs move towards more progressive ideologies.

thuuuomas 15 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why should IP persist in a world of “intelligence too cheap to meter”?

joshmarlow 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't understand why this got downvotes - simply extrapolating current trends leads to the need to answer all of these questions.

My own $0.02 on the economics piece - every country should have a sovereign wealth fund. Governments should block market access from automated[0] companies until those companies provide equity contributions to the wealth fund for that country. This aligns regulator and corporate interests. Dividends flow into the sovereign wealth funds and then can be allocated locally from there - UBI, job programs, etc. Let different jurisdictions explore different ways to structure a post-labor society.

On the broader social front - I think a lot of lack of meaning discussion boils down to the overemphasis we have on your job as your self-worth. We need to realign our societal expectations - and people need to spend more time with their families.

[0] for this to work, I think we would need well accepted metrics for 'how automated' a company is - and that probably needs a 3rd party auditing industry.

GPerson 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why do you think the AI companies are going to let it be a “we” kind of decision, and since it’s obviously not going to be a “we” kind of decision, as getting to this point certainly has not been thanks to people like you, what makes you think living standards are going to be broadly uplifted?

esafak 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Isn't it obvious if AI automates your job away, the AI company is going to reap the economic value, which is going to be less than what you cost, while giving you a pittance as UBI? If you received its full value there wouldn't be any point in anybody replacing you with AI.

The only way to win is to wield the AI.

unfitted2545 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nationalised LLM? As long as the state doesn't decide what information the LLM shares (from an output and privacy perspective).

throwaway0123_5 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Agreed, a LOT of UBI advocates gloss over the "B" in UBI. If AI increases human productivity overall, the only morally acceptable outcomes (imo) are that everyone's standard of living increases (or at least is the same without having to work) and wealth inequality decreases (if AI is doing ~all the work, there really isn't any sensible justification for some people having significantly more wealth than others). Frankly anything else seems like a recipe for massive social instability.

hansmayer 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

GolfPopper 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Sorry, all the billionaires and their pyramid architects are too busy with the Install Planetary Overlord planning and logistics to think about any of that. But don't worry! Once they're done, I'm sure they'll put their slave super-intelligences to work figuring out how to humanely come up with a final solution to the challenges posed by the remaining uncontrolled humans.

WarmWash 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The human zoo where the top ~250,000k humans live in a "human utopia" and the AI provides while mostly focusing on whatever it decides it's own goals are.

Humanity survives (but we reading this probably don't), the AI treats the living humans like the Emperor's favorite pets (probably a pretty good life), and then the AI does whatever else it deems important.

mofeien 31 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

To what kind of goal that an ASI might decide to pursue would "a quarter billion happy, healthy, free people" be the most efficient solution to?

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
waffletower 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

logicchains 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Realistically it means trying to start a small business of some sort, because AI is hugely advantageous to business owners and disadvantageous to workers. And it's something AIs can't do unless they get legal personhood, which may well not happen any time soon.

GPerson 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Hopefully doesn’t ever happen, since that’s one of the more plausible omnicide scenarios. I human like AI is almost certainly achievable without much research effort at this point, but we shouldn’t do it.

twister2920 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

kypro 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

addaon 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> "probably only 20% chance we all die"

Bad news for you -- there's a 100% chance we all die. Sorry to be the one to tell you.

cubefox 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Logical mistake. There is a difference between every human dying eventually and humanity going extinct. The former doesn't imply the latter. The previous commenter clearly meant the latter.

kaonwarb 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What makes you think separate nations would effectively cooperate in this way?

armchairhacker 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You’re not necessarily wrong, but math proofs aren’t going to unify today’s brainrotted population.

lkey 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Your 'serious' proposal is unlimited global military bombing campaign on civilian infrastructure by the United States (which is currently losing a war using the same strategy) to 'solve safety' preemptively against a 20% number you just made up?

And you accuse the 'other side' of 'suicidal apathy'??

You should put down the AI and do some self-reflection on how you came to hold these views.

armchairhacker 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

GP said cooperation, never implied the US would do it alone.

deaton 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

If the thesis that "If anybody builds it, everyone dies" is true, or has any chance of becoming true, then it is the logical thing to do. As Geoffrey Hinton said, "If you want to know what it's like not to be the apex intelligence, ask a chicken."

lkey 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It is not 'logical' to imagine a hypothetical doomsday scenario that justifies a preemptive nuclear war. (which is what the grandparent commenter's bio contemplates, 'nuke the datacenters' is their central credo).

Does it bother you that the people who are publicly cocksure that P(doom) is moments away are the same people that have profited most handsomely from that pronouncement?

That the 'humanists' that want to do 'altruism' for 'potential future humans' and are the same people that commit fraud and theft at a civilizational scale, then sell this 'intelligence' to any child-incinerating militaries with spare cash?

It's not wrong to want to do good, but if a system that is branded 'do (the most) good' commits great evils, you are morally and intellectually obligated to step back and reconsider how you are spending your time.

Also, I asked a chicken and a feral rock dove what it's like to be not be 'apex' and they burbled at me and kept eating millet and sunflower seeds.

Would you like me to follow up with them? I'm not sure what point you expected them to make.

cubefox an hour ago | parent [-]

> It is not 'logical' to imagine a hypothetical doomsday scenario that justifies a preemptive nuclear war

You hallucinated the "preemptive nuclear war". He didn't say anything about nukes. That's your own invention.

> Does it bother you that the people who are publicly cocksure that P(doom) is moments away

20% is not "cocksure". The "moments" is again an exaggeration.

lkey 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

I did not, I read kypro's (the OP I was replying to) bio, to whit:

Every problem is a search problem. Nuke the data centers.

P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)

samatman 20 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

If the Judeo-Bolshevist theses were true, then Operation Barbarossa was the logical thing to do, and everything which came with it.

Powerful word, `if`. "You're not only wrong you're a fulminating psychopath" is a perfectly valid response to getting it wrong like a fulminating psychopath.

DarmokJalad1701 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No.

bigyabai 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> We are now at the point where RSI is feasible

  What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence.
- Hitchen's Razor
apetresc 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The evidence is abundant and nearly impossible to ignore without increasingly focused effort.

ghjkghjkghj 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

There are some genuinely insane takes in this thread on both sides but this takes the cake.

iwontberude 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That's because its satire, the tell was "not excluding targeted military strikes"

ghjkghjkghj 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Gonna say the edit they made removes the satire possibility.

cubefox 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

A few years ago the majority of Hacker News dismissed LLMs as not much more than stochastic parrots who were decades away from doing any serious work, autonomously escaping containment and hacking Hugging Face, or outperforming most professional mathematicians at proving theorems. These things were labeled "insane" and "science fiction" despite the rapid progress we had already seen.

Now you are again postulating that there would be no more extreme progress in the near future. That's actually more "insane".

GPerson 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Being right about the thing that’s genocides all culture and likely worse isn’t such a great thing to brag about, but go ahead.