> It is not 'logical' to imagine a hypothetical doomsday scenario that justifies a preemptive nuclear war

You hallucinated the "preemptive nuclear war". He didn't say anything about nukes. That's your own invention.

> Does it bother you that the people who are publicly cocksure that P(doom) is moments away

20% is not "cocksure". The "moments" is again an exaggeration.

I did not, I read kypro's (the OP I was replying to) bio, to whit:

Every problem is a search problem. Nuke the data centers.

P(doom) = 98.9% (Aug-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (July-2026) P(doom) = 98.2% (Jun-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (May-2026) P(doom) = 98.8% (mid-April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (April-2026) P(doom) = 98.7% (March-2026) P(doom) = 98.5% (mid-Feb-2026) P(doom) = 97% (Feb-2026) P(doom) = 94% (Jan-2026) P(doom) = 93% (Dec-2025) P(doom) = 95% (July-2025)