I would argue we still have not even really gotten started.

What do we have in the decade ahead? Robotics in every household, models 10x+ faster and more intelligent than today.

Really no significant impact in life sciences, R&D, and 'offline' world / robotics today as of yet, which is where most of the value will live.

Even if we agree with this take (and I do think it's a likely take that you're right on the long term), it doesn't change that it seems likely we're in a bubble, and it probably will pop.

We see a similar paradigm with lots of revolutionary technology. The initial promise is high, people get very excited, lots of money pours in, and.... 15-30 years go by before we start seeing real impact across the economy at large.

It's just a real slog to actually implement and roll out new tech.

So take robots: I can promise you that you won't see robotics in every household in the next decade (especially so if we exclude the current market of robot vacuums). Even if a company makes an incredibly capable robot "today" (and to be clear - they are not) it won't have time to scale out production, reduce costs, generate a used market that's accessible to less wealthy consumers, deal with regulatory hurdles and quality problems that only pop up in real-world usage, etc...

It's just slower than you're implying.

The change very well will happen (I'm inclined to agree that things are going to shift). That doesn't mean that the current investment is sane and will pay off.

So many historical examples of this, just two here real quick:

- Ford built his first automobile in 1896, founded a company in 1901, went out of business, got sued by ALAM, didn't build more than 10k Model T's until 1910, then only finally hit real scale (of low hundred of thousands of units) in 1913: More than a decade to "basic scale". Household ownership didn't hit 60% until 1929... 30+ years later.

- The initial web enthusiasm, followed by the dot-com crash in early 2000s...

Robotics in the household has been the realm of science fiction for decades and it still hasn't happened. We get dedicated, compact machines like dishwashers and washing machine/dryers, that's it. Most recent innovation has been the automatic vacuum.

If you want someone else to do household chores, hire someone. You can pay someone to do your house chores for years for the cost that these things will have initially.

The absolutely massive scale and influence of the Web happened after the dot com burst.

> I would argue we still have not even really gotten started.

I agree, but that doesn't mean there isn't a bubble.

It is possible we'll have all those changes and they generate a lot of revenue for very few players but, still, a lot of the remaining players fail.

In particular, I worry about robotics. It is clearly becoming a China-only game. The west just doesn't have the industrial manufacturing critical mass to play it.

Yep, that is what the bet is. The build out will continue, even if it looks different.

The Internet was a 'bubble' at one point, and after it crashed in 2000, it didn't go away, it continued to build out. We're still using the Internet after the Internet bubble popped.