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aaronbrethorst 2 hours ago

The buried lede:

What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin

I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set up and at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer

bcoughlan 44 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I don't mean to be divisive, but this meme-like stream of news articles and comments about Europeans being silly about air conditioning, from the drill-baby-drill nation that refused to even try to do anything about climate change, really grates on me.

jordanb 21 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

It's clearly an op by people who don't want the story to be about a historic heatwave ravaging Europe, so instead they make it about dum Europeans without air conditioning (which they didn't need before).

tshaddox 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I didn’t see anything meme-like in the comment you responded to. Or even anything related to environmentalism. To me, it just looked like good health advice.

otherme123 14 minutes ago | parent [-]

In case you don't know, there is a meme in the US that Europe don't know/don't have A/C. We do, but in some coutries there are laws banning A/C below 25°C (77°F) in public places, so (US) tourist don't get the cold air hit when entering a building like a musseum, leaving with the impression we don't know A/C.

No general A/C might be the case in regions that never needed it before (mild summers, cold winters), but their presence is increasing.

yostrovs 22 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

It would be one thing if Europe immediately stopped using coal, drastically reduced airline usage, quit building gasoline cars, but if anything it is only marginally better than the US. Europe mostly shifted their dirty work to Asia and North America, while restricting themselves from using air conditioning as some kind of virtue signaling. That's the problem as I see it.

sdeframond an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So we've been stupid "solar oven" buildings for 50 years while climate scientists were warning against extreme weather events and, now that said extreme event arrives, the best we find is to rush to aircon.

Seems pretty short-sighted to me.

3eb7988a1663 18 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

I live in SoCal and am continually shaking my head at the architecture. So my floor-to-ceiling glass buildings in a climate known for sunny weather. So much extra air-conditioning will be spent to cool those buildings compared to if they had been built more reflective.

euroderf a few seconds ago | parent [-]

I'd try hanging long sheets of aluminum foil in too-large windows. I imagine someone in academia has studied this.

bamboozled an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I feel every comment section related to weather and climate seems to have the same winging about buildings. Cold? Europe has amazing buildings, hot? Europe has been building ovens... it's interesting psychology.

Edit: We cannot blame people for buildings things that worked when we had a stable climate but are no long suitable for all these extremes. We needed to fix the emissions issue 30-50 year ago to avoid this. We knew it and we collectively ignored it. I get your point, we could've "planned ahead" but if you build something that wasn't suitable / cost effective for the time it was built, you'd be out of business.

50 years ago no one was going to pay extra for a building that might be important in 100 years because we didn't stop burning fossil fuels in time.

sdeframond 32 minutes ago | parent [-]

> you'd be out of business.

Correct. And we'd be "out of business" too as a country if we decided alone to fix emissions. Other economies would have passed ours because burning oil is so damn useful.

Thing is, I don't feel we are changing much in this respect. Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon...

queenkjuul 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Now the best idea we come up with is burning more fuel for aircon...

I mean really what else is there? We can't undo the warming, we can't rebuild every building in Europe (even if we could, would it work? Winter will still happen too). We can install solar panels and air conditioners, though.

tokai 25 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Don't worry it will even out when the Gulf Stream chokes out /s

cassepipe 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

...or not ? As el Nino would say: Porque no los dos ?

sdeframond 20 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I would absolutely be looking into how to get [...] at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer

Before you do that, do the cost effective thing: shadow and wind. Then you can add an aircon iff thats not enough.

For shadow, reftrofitting adjustable sunshade is pretty effective. Sunlight brings about 1kw per square meter of window. That like having your heater at full power when its already hot.

For wind: fans, preferably ceiling fans. Lowers perceived temperature by about 3.5 °C.

carlosjobim 5 minutes ago | parent [-]

Uncomfortable heat has nothing to do with temperature and everything to do with air humidity. Only an AC can lower the humidity, by conditioning the air.

delusional 32 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I live in Europe. We have in fact invented air conditioning here too, but I am not concerned with what we should be doing next year. That's a trivial matter. I'm concerned about what will happen if this trend continues another 5-10 years. How do we make sure that doesn't happen?

trentor 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

El Nino mostly affects temperature in winter. It can raise the baseline a little in summer but that's not the problem with the heat waves we have this year. There is no buried lede but there is a lot of misunderstanding about El Nino on your side.

throwaway_7274 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[flagged]

sailingparrot 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> hello

Wow, clearly Gemini

usrnm 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> if not a heat pump

Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems fitted to use the existing piping in old homes and is used only for heating. Such installations can, in theory, be used for cooling, but very inefficiently.

aaronbrethorst an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Seems like a good thing for them to reconsider between now and next summer!

KaiserPro an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Most heat pump installations in Europe are air-to-water systems

I'm not sure thats true.

Most aircon in "warm" europe is standard split aircon

The "heatpump" shit that the UK is sorta looking at is as you describe. However its half the price to install "aircon" over heatpumps (because grants, amongst other things)

Like most recently refurbished offices will use normal aircon (certainly all the one I have worked in)

dom96 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The annoying thing is that UK at least has a bigger grant for air-to-water systems.

I've been doing some research into this, because I would ideally like to get this system so I can make use of the existing radiators in my old house, but I do also want to have the option of cooling my home. It does seem like Fan Coil Units (FCUs) are an option for this. Anyone have experience with these? Are they really inefficient compared to standard air-to-air units?

thyristan an hour ago | parent [-]

The problem is, if you feed cold water into your normal heating pipes, all the piping and radiators will get wet from condensation. So you would have to have a regulator that measures air moisture and temperature in all your rooms and only feeds water with a temperature above the dew point. This is possible, but inefficient and (especially on hot+wet days) doesn't cool very well.

The possible real fixes are either to section off your water circuits in summer, and only run the properly cold water through FCUs, wall or ceiling loops.

Or to get a multisplit heat pump, use a normal refrigerant-air indoor unit to cool and a refrigerant-water indoor unit to heat the water loops.

dom96 an hour ago | parent [-]

Yeah, I wasn't planning to run the cold loops through the existing radiator piping. I just want the ability to cool at least 1 room by reusing the air-to-water system, even if that means the FPU requires its own piping from the outside.

In that scenario, are FPUs a good option? Are there other drawbacks?

spockz 19 minutes ago | parent [-]

Most Francoils I know don’t have a way to get rid of any condensation that happens in the unit like internal air conditioning units do. So even if you run the piping outside of the house you have condensation in the unit and the floors, not to mention the walls.

Even then, there is a fair limit in cooling and efficiency you can get from them because of the lack of phase changes occurring.

If you have a balanced mechanical ventilation (both inlet and outlet) that would be one of the best options to condition the whole house without putting air conditioning units everywhere. Having said that, we turn on the air conditioning in the attic during hot days which removes the biggest heat and moisture from the house. Next up is installing more sun blinds to prevent the heat from entering in the first place.

inigyou 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And by a sizable margin they mean maybe 4 degrees Celsius.

Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario and we're currently about 1.1 degrees.

All that warming that we caused but didn't actually happen? Turns out the ocean saves it up.

cogman10 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario

No, it's not end of the world. 3C is where things start getting bad. 1.5C is the target for the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try and avoid hitting 2C.

We are looking at more severe droughts, flash floods, and rising oceans where we are at, but not the worst of it like mass 40C wet bulb heat domes which wipe out all life underneath them.

jakebol 13 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

This is an incorrect way to frame the impacts of temperature increases. 1.5, 2, 3C makes extreme events like the one you stated significantly more likely in a probabilistic sense. The ability of adapt is in part driven by frequency of extreme events as much as it is adaptability to specific thresholds. We are already experiencing deadly heat bulb events at current warming levels, the impacted areas and frequency of these events will strictly increase.

tjwebbnorfolk 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

tpurves an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Well that's a relief, glad I am a turtle then and so are most of my friends, and that our whole world economy and food system runs on turtles. So we should be fine.

cogman10 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You are right, it is an exaggeration.

I should have said "land life" as the ocean temperature doesn't shift that much with the above ocean temps.

And I'm sure there's some random bacteria and fungus that can survive and thrive at 40C web bulb.

What doesn't tend to do so well is the likes of humans, birds, cattle, horses, mice, rats, insects, many crops, native animal life that didn't evolve to handle high heat temperatures.

The last time earth will have been as hot as the 3C temperature was prehistorically.

whynotmaybe an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes for temperature but what about CO2 ppm?

egman_ekki an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

…and from here, it’s turtles all the way down.

MrGilbert an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I wonder if "but the turtles survived and I was right!" is the best way to look at it if humanity is close to extinction in the next century or so.

ahofmann an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

So ... It's turtles all the way down?

mort96 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The 1.5C target (which, as others pointed out, is not an end-of-the-world scenario) is about average temperature above pre-industrial baseline across 20 years. The temperature anomaly of a single year has nothing to do with that; 2028 will likely be colder again.

Average temperature moves in cycles. By confusing single-year temperatures with the 1.5C target, you're just going to make people think "crisis averted" once 2028 turns out to be cold.

fredski42 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Does anyone knows how much more the oceans can absorb heat?

inigyou 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Well they seem to have switched to releasing stored heat. Isn't that basically the El Nino / La Nina cycle?

Metaphorically relevant: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limnic_eruption

delichon an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

To vaporize 10^21 kg of seawater from ~4 °C to 100 °C would require ~10^27 joules, around 16 trillion Hiroshimas or ~2.5 seconds of the sun's output.

metalman 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

the oceans can adsorb a great deal more heat, but all the ice will melt, while the deap ocean water expands, from it's rather odd temperature ,that keeps it at the highest density possible, about .5% more than if it were just a bit warmer, so more warming will cause very significsnt sea level rise through several different mechanisms related to heat.