Remix.run Logo
AznHisoka 12 hours ago

As someone who belongs to “all of us”, i vote to not bail us out if shit hits the fan. No need to ask me when it happens, OK? No really, it’s nice of you but we really dont need to be bailed out. You are welcome :)

laughing_man 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The problem is if large banks fail they take everyone else with them. We should have dealt with this in 2009, but for some reason it didn't happen.

But money talks, I guess.

londons_explore 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Iceland let it's banks default, and is now doing rather well.

In fact, bank failure and then having the government only guarantee ~$50k of funds per person is a good way to hand wealth to the people and take it from corporations and the super wealthy.

embedding-shape 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> good way to hand wealth to the people and take it from corporations and the super wealthy

Hence the power that be try to prevent it best they can. In some cases, unsuccessfully (Iceland) and in others, a bit more successful (the US). But seemingly, they're only able to delay the inevitable, not completely prevent it.

bulbar 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Big corporate borrowed the money already, so it will stay with some (other) big corporate in this scenario. The bankers who did it will see that coming and move their money elsewhere and keep their money as well.

What you suggest will hit normal persons.

What we really need is people going to jail that let stuff like that happen. Let them bear actual responsibility for their 1,000k+ salary.

adjejmxbdjdn 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The U.S. also let a bank collapse and shit hit the fan across the world.

The global economy isn’t pivoting off Icelandic banks the way it is off US ones.

petesergeant 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> and is now doing rather well

I was going to write a shitty reply to this, but the more research I did, the more it seems actually this went pretty well for them. UK and NL governments that lost deposits in the Icelandic banks mostly got their cash back (eventually), there was recession and unemployment but not that much worse than other countries, and the country is in good standing again with the markets.

I would note that this is much much easier to do if your investors are foreign, rather than domestic pension funds, so it doesn’t bring down the government, though.

laughing_man 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Iceland's banks were full of money from people in the UK. It's a lot easier to default when there only a small political and economic price.

hparadiz 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Is everyone just glossing over the fact that the feds make a profit on bailing the banks out? Seems like a win win to take over ownership in the event of a bank failure.

pfannkuchen 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Was this definitely not accounting trickery? Like even the way money is created is intentionally convoluted and approximately 1% of the population even attempts to understand it. Can we really trust the accounting of bank bailouts which stood to be unpopular when the accounting produced a convenient outcome? Has anyone plausible analyzed this to a convincing level of detail?

hparadiz 6 hours ago | parent [-]

This was explained by Jon Stewart on The Daily Show ad neausum in 2008 and was common discourse for years after. No. It's not accounting trickery. Rather than allow the company aka the bank to go fully bankrupt the government simply forces a sale of the shares of the bank to the government. The original stock owners basically take a cap gains loss (potentially based on their cost basis). The bank then continues to operate as normal. This prevents a run on the bank and keeps it stable. Then 2-3 years later the stock recovers and the government sells its shares. Since they bought low this is highly profitable. Anyway yes and yes. The 2008 bailout ended up making a profit for tax payers. Thanks Obama.

londons_explore 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If there was a reliable profit to be made, a third party would do it.

I suspect the real profit is made by also being in a position to adjust laws and rules to make sure your investment survives, as well as turning low rated bonds effectively into government bonds. All those things are at the expense of others in the bigger picture.

hparadiz 8 hours ago | parent [-]

3rd parties don't have the capital to front the losses. That's the whole point for the government to do it. The feds get the advantage that they basically get to force the existing creditors to sell at a loss. Presumably that's what everyone here wants. The existing owners to pay a penalty on the failure and for everyone else to remain whole if possible. Well that's exactly how a bank "bail out" works. So what's the actual problem? The only one's "hurt" are the owners who miss managed the business.

actionfromafar 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The "feds" as we used to know them are going extinct. They are all being replaced by GOP apparatchiks, who care only to look good to the Leader.

short_sells_poo 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The issue is that major US banks are systematically important to the US and also everyone else. Practically nobody cares about Icelandic banks - not even their depositors if their deposits were protected by the state (which they were).

If a bank like JP Morgan were to fail, the event would be without exaggeration cataclysmic to everyone, even small local banks and credit unions. Even if ultimately the clients of JPM could be made whole, the weeks of uncertainty and frozen funds would single handedly obliterate the financial systems across the globe. It's the age old adage: "if you get margin called and get wiped out, it doesn't matter that you'd have recovered just 2 weeks later". The world as a whole is deeply leveraged. It's that leverage that affords us the ability to supercharge all the growth, from AI to drugs research, insurance, EV... everything. But that leverage comes at a cost, which is that systemically important institutions failing can have disastrous cascading de-leveraging effects.

I'm sure we'd more or less all survive and the world would recover, but it would likely be a 2008 GFC style scenario most likely.

dofm 8 hours ago | parent [-]

The collapse of Landsbanki was absolutely not a nothingburger. Risked triggering a 21st Century Cod Wars: the UK government was forced to use organised crime laws to freeze its UK assets to protect UK savers in Icesave, to whom the Icelandic government did not clearly intend to extend protection.

fancyfredbot 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Things have changed since 2009. It would be private credit which fails this time, not the banks.

Private credit is not supposed to be systemically important and it's not supposed to need bailing out. Maybe we'll find out how true that is in practice.

darth_avocado 34 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Private credit is just some guy skimming 3% while risking your pensions.

spwa4 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why would you think that? You think pension funds and governments didn't invest this time? Because that's the problem, governments either investing everyone's money directly (to fund their own loans and expenditures, or should I say fund their own expenses using pension money without admitting that's what they're doing to pensioners) or indirectly force investments (you'll find pension funds worldwide are legally only allowed to invest in loans to the government and specific things the government allows (like politicians' charities). "For safety", of course, no other motivations there)

We can check if governments went back to their own tricks or not after 2008. What were the interest rates after 2008? Quick check ... yep, they went back to the old tricks.

When "shit hits the fan". Either governments really cut spending, leave pensioners without income and see their new loan interest spike to 10%+ (if they're lucky) ...

OR they do a massive cash injection saving the banks, and increase spending.

Which would you chose? It doesn't even matter. If you were the government and chose the first option, you would quickly find suddenly everyone across the political spectrum uniting to depose you. A decent chunk of people would literally not have any other choice but to do that.

(of course, as per usual governments aren't behaving "correctly" according to economic theory. If you take the old "government as spender of last resort" governments should have radically cut spending in the last 10 years, because there was no need for extra spending. If you take the new "government invests pensions", then of course government spending needs to be investment. In other words, governments only allowed to spend like a normal investor, expecting and demanding a return. Ie. no social spending increases. In practice governments increased spending at any cost, and so we're in trouble again)

Oh and should I mention that for any other entity investing pension money in loans to yourself is a very unique thing in law. It is THE ONLY financial crime where corporate structures do not protect management. You're the worldwide president of ExxonMobil? Doesn't matter. You do with employee pension money what government does with it? (ie. loan it to yourself, in this case ExxonMobil). You go to jail. Directly and long-term. In America. In Spain. In Japan. In fucking Vatican city.

spaceman_2020 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Replace you with AI, and when the AI math falls apart, use your tax money to bail out AI

And they’ll get away with it too

stymaar 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This the proof that guillotine is useful, if not to be used, to make the elite behave in way that avoid suffering it.

spaceman_2020 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They think they’re immune. Even after Luigi, they still think they’re immune

UberFly 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

As far-fetched as it sounds, I'd prefer elected officials and the justice system hold people accountable rather than psychotic murderers.

ben_w 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Likewise.

I think it's a real pity that of the "four boxes of liberty", Musk has interfered with the first three: soap, Twitter; ballot, the lawsuits about million dollar rewards for voting; jury, selecting his jurisdiction, dismantling enforcement institutions via DOGE.

On the plus side, it's only "interfered with" rather than "completely eliminated".

Still, glad I have an ocean between me and the USA.

dofm 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

So would those guys in the boats in the Caribbean and the girls in that Iranian school, but the purpose of a system is what it does.

thin_carapace 9 hours ago | parent [-]

based

YeahThisIsMe 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Obviously that's preferable. What if they don't?

cryptonym 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Well... AGI by next month sounds more likely than what you are hoping for.

dns_snek 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Who wouldn't? In the real world, the top elected officials and the justice system are covering up sex trafficking of children among the US elites, and that's only the tip of the iceberg. The system is psychotic and what's strange is there haven't been more people like Luigi.

surgical_fire 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Speaking hypothetically, that is preferable, yes.

And the importance of the justice system working properly is that when it fails constantly and deliberately, many will come to the conclusion that the only option left is murder.

senordevnyc 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Luigi is a lone nutcase who will spend the rest of his life behind bars, and what he did is just a meaningless tragedy, not the start to your pitiful little tantrum of a “revolution”.

kishkash 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

[dead]

ManuelKiessling 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Well, I really wish that anyone, no matter their income level or job description, is immune against murder; or are we just throwing out civilization now?

edoceo 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's of topic but, what if our current civilization is failing them? Like, of the system is broken and an individual acts to protect themselves or their family, the individual is still blamed.

That's how revolution starts.

And there are many revolutions that we (in USA) claim are good! Our own, from Britain, the French one. Of course others are bad (depending on where your vantage)

It's just that, sometimes the murder is (retrospectively) justified. Like in a war, they're killing us so we kill them.

But class war isn't fought with uniformed combatants.

And, in USA at least, many of our politicians are bought quite blatantly. If they aren't serving the citizens perhaps they have thrown out civilization and the social contracts first?

It's all quite complicated.

In general though, murder bad and government should serve the poorest citizens forst, corporations last.

LtWorf 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Being denied medical care is murder as well.

viccis 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

China's doing it

Lerc 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The guillotine requires being in control of the situation. It can only be used by those with the power to act with impunity.

It's not fighting against tyrants, it's a declaration of an intention to be the next tyrants.

thin_carapace 9 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm gonna recognise half your comment being an AI tell (negative parallelism) but not focus on that fact. based on your pro ai stance yesterday (in tandem with this non revolutionary take today), I'm then gonna ask point blank - how exactly do you personally benefit from the current direction that things are going?

Lerc 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I wrote that comment entirely by myself, on my phone while waiting for a souvlaki. Perhaps the things that you consider AI tells are simply a use of language from someone in country with a different education system.

I can't really judge how I might personally benefit from the current direction because I am uncertain what that direction is, and indeed if it will be sustained.

If you are trying to allege that I have some personal affiliation to an organisation where I might benefit more than any average member of the public, then I must disappoint you. I work on my own projects, I sometimes make money from games that I make.

I do not wish for a hypercapitalist dystopia where a company could train a model on work for hire content and then forever churn out content that they assert ownership of. I don't want the suppression of ideas caused by others asserting that because they had an idea, they own it and can dictate who gets to use it.

I also do not wish for another reign of terror.

I don't think violence will make the world better, and I don't think disaffected chique will either. I advocate identifying problems, suggesting solutions to the problems and working with people to reach consensus to apply those solutions. I assume that humans are fundamentally good and in the absence of religion can generally be reasoned with. Even those who do things you disagree with probably are doing what they think is best.

I may be wrong about the goodness of humanity, but it does not matter, If it exists it's worth working with. If it does not exist, it is not worth saving. I choose to assume that it exists on the chance that it might.

thin_carapace 7 hours ago | parent [-]

believing in the inherent good of humanity does somewhat justify your perspective, may life allow you to continue believing this way and may your pursuits be productive. I would recommend not to marginalize yourself, this action is tantamount to painting targets on your back for bad actors to aim at. corporations and governments are currently acting violently against the populace, a correspondingly heavy handed response is required if the populace does not wish to become soylent green. note that I have not explicitly advocated violent behaviour - rather I suggest that if our intelligence is not used against this tide, it may as well be part of the wave. thanks for your thoughtful response

weregiraffe 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Lol, now every pattern of speech is AI? How about we jusr stop talking then?

thin_carapace 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I have noted the employment of a language technique that as per the wikipedia article "signs of AI writing" is commonly used by AI, you can attack facts all you like and that will indeed stop me from talking!

Lerc 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think the distinction is that when an AI generates the phrase it chooses to use the negation and then fills in the terms. If it only has one thing to communicate at that point then it is essentially placing a redundant rephrasing on onr side of the negation.

My use of it took the form of

A statement on how a guillotine kills people when they are powerless.

The negation then, in the first part compares that to the connotation of the previous post of an underdog battling those in power, and rejects it as inconsistent and the negation provides an alternative framing that is consistent with the action of killing a person who can no longer harm you.

Both sides of the negation make a point.

This is obviously much more common in a dialogue than a monologue, because the first part is used to reference words of the other party. In a monologue, that other party is the past self of the speaker, it suggests a change in position. I think models end up using as a short hand for realisation.

Are there any good collections of negation usage in AI with the surrounding paragraphs? I'd be interested to see what percentage of them are an expression of self realisation.

thin_carapace 3 hours ago | parent [-]

language models are trained to maximise engagement and maximally convey meaning. binary contrast happens to achieve these goals by optimally translating the manifold. if I come across further research it would be interesting to continue our language related discussion.

Lerc 2 hours ago | parent [-]

>language models are trained to maximise engagement

I have seen no research to that effect.

>and maximally convey meaning

Nobody knows how to measure that

They are trained to complete sequences, then they are trained to engage in conversations, produce what people prefer (with a fairly crude measure of preference, hence the sycophancy). Reasoning models are trained to produce what an observer model think will give you the right answer, the observer model simultaneously learns the likelihood of producing the right answer.

All these things train to improve a property that can be measured at training time. You could build a model to estimate engagement, but I have not seen any evidence that shipping LLMs have used a measure like this.

I can't even imagine how you could tell if a measure of meaning was accurate or not, let alone how you could produce such a measure. You could try to measure information density, but that would also include noise.

microtonal 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It is the overuse of such tells. Please, let's not ban uses of not X, but Y completely. It's a rhetoric technique that is completely fine, with moderation. But real human will use them with moderation.

Also, there is the issue of human language taking some 'tells' because they are exposed to LLM output a lot.

I'm still grumpy that LLMs made it nearly impossible to use the words 'delve' or em-dashes without getting called out as an LLM.

senordevnyc 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What a revealing question. Only a child with zero exposure to the horrors of war would think that they’ll be better off in a world where we’re murdering the elites in droves. It’s laughably ignorant and hubristic.

Fortunately, you keyboard warriors lack the skill, connections, and charisma to actually enact any of your bloodthirsty fantasies.

thin_carapace 7 hours ago | parent [-]

are you looking for a fight? I love fighting but I never said any of that. so I can't really defend the position, it isn't mine.

senordevnyc 7 hours ago | parent [-]

lol, yeah you did, unless you think your sad little attempt at the socratic method conceals your views?

thin_carapace 6 hours ago | parent [-]

I don't know how to respond to your comment with decorum so I'm going to say goodbye, and pray that you mentor your juniors better than the way you treated me today mr senor dev

senordevnyc 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I’m not the one here agitating for mass violence.

laughing_man 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How are they going to use my tax money if I stop working and don't pay taxes?

zkmon 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Because AI is "too big to fail".

spaceman_2020 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Wild that we all lived exactly the same way before AI

Really changed so little in my life. I just use chatgpt instead of Google search now

It's being marketed as some ground breaking revolutionary change when all it is is a better widget

Remove it and the worst that will happen is that I'll go back to writing my emails and my code by hand - something I've done for the last 20 years anyway

xtiansimon 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> “As someone who belongs to “all of us”, i vote to not bail us out if shit hits the fan.”

You have alighted onto an interesting topic: “bail out”. I believe a closely related word on the semiotic chain is “retreat”.

I don’t feel that our culture would wish to “retreat” from AI. I know quite a few managers and programmers who absolutely delight in the fruits of the industry.

No doubt the titans of the AI industry, who stand to lose their shirts, would also like a bailout. As would the workers under their leadership. Finally, if the governments of the world are taking “AI” technologies as seriously as I think they are, then I should expect a bailout in the event of bubble go boom is inevitable.

In which case, Buy Low; Sell High.

DrScientist 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Money isn't lost per se, it's transferred.

ie for every loser there is a winner.

Obvious ones are those who can extract value from this companies now ( high salaries/bonus etc ), swapping worthless paper for real assets, Nvidia and their share holders etc. Investors who hold short positions etc.

mlrtime 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You are trying to define zero sum without saying it. The market is not zero sum, a loan isn't zero sum.

There isn't a winner and loser.

DrScientist 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Why not? What am I missing.

If you loan me 10 pounds and I simply keep it or spend it but refuse to pay you back - aren't I the winner and you the loser?

Claiming that the market is a positive sum system, because I use that 10 pounds to invent something that changes world productivity is missing the fact that there is a constant stream of huge energy inputs from the sun - that's ultimately what allows the local entropy to decrease - not that you lent me 10 pounds.

orwin 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I borrow you 10 money i use to buy my chair-making tools. I make the chair, sell it 20 money, then pay you 12 money back for the service rendered. Basically money is supposed to be a tool that help us creating capital by exchanging goods.

DrScientist 4 hours ago | parent [-]

But aren't you confusing the means of exchange with the creation of value.

The creation of value is me taking energy from the sun and converting that into a chair.

You lending me money is you extracting value from artificially being a middleman.

It would have been more efficient to write an IOU to the tool maker, make the chair and pay back the tool maker directly.

Now sure that IOU isn't that fungible - however that highlights one of the absurdities ( if I understand it correctly ) of the current banking system where private banks are able to in effect issue IOU's on their own basis but put mine and your name on it as a guarantor - resulting in the public having to bail out banks when they over extend.

actionfromafar 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

True but the opportunity cost is truly lost. Entropy comes for everyone. If we spend a lot of money digging holes in the ground then filling them again, maybe no money was lost.

DrScientist 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Sure - but that's a meta question of whether the current economic/political systems are delivering good allocation of resources for whatever target function you favour.

And that's complex - even in your simple example you can argue that people have likely improved their capability to dig and fill holes - and the latter skill is particularly valuable in the UK right now.

ie Entropy includes information component :-)

dev_l1x_be 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Is there a party that supports no bail?

joe_the_user 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Unfortunately, the votes for a regime of permanent bailouts were already in when Ben Barnacke made his famous speech proposing helicopters over cities if deflation reached a crisis level (though the Internet says Milton Friedman thought of this first). Some later observed "the helicopters only seem to go to Wall Street", which isn't surprising.

superze 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Always remember kids. Socialism is bad, it's only good if we bail out banks with billions. While you lose your house, and your job, they get bonuses.

11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
[deleted]