> The only thing that matters is if LLMs with sufficient scaling can become frontier AI researchers kicking off the exponential

I agree with your sentiment (about the noise), however I think this over simplifies it a bit. We may get AI that is super-human at frontier research and dramatically accelerates the pace, and still have to wait decades before it disrupts the job market (or maybe never displaces all work).

For one, the answer may depend on material science and chip manufacturing that can take a very long to build out a supply chain for even with super AI help.

And we may just find that the human mind is way more capable than we thought and even with accelerating research it's just a harder problem than anyone expected, even algorithmically.

I expect it to be a bit of both, and from ~2015 - 2025 I was in the "AI is coming for all our jobs" camp. My perspective changed last year after doing a deep dive into latest science on the human brain. (I've kept a very close eye on AI dev progress for 12+ years.

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openquery an hour ago | parent [-]

> I agree with your sentiment (about the noise), however I think this over simplifies it a bit. We may get AI that is super-human at frontier research and dramatically accelerates the pace, and still have to wait decades before it disrupts the job market (or maybe never displaces all work).

I don't see why that's the case when you have super-human researchers on tap. There are indeed physical (supply chain-y) issues to deal with but isn't the whole point that: 1. Super-human at AI research + scaling to millions of instances will probably result in super-intelligence in everything which is not AI research. (a subset of which is white-collar work) 2. Use that super-intelligence to solve any supply-chain issues you might be facing.

> And we may just find that the human mind is way more capable than we thought and even with accelerating research it's just a harder problem than anyone expected, even algorithmically.

I hope so but whenever I do, I feel like I'm coping hard and not dealing with the facts.

I'm not saying we're there yet - I'm saying the trend lines are clear.

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BobbyJo 32 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> Use that super-intelligence to solve any supply-chain issues you might be facing.

I think this is where a lot of people's thinking goes awry. Unlimited intelligence doesn't mean unlimited resources or instantaneous implementation.

	▲	openquery 23 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		> Unlimited intelligence doesn't mean unlimited resources or instantaneous implementation. Of course you're right. At the end of the day you need to deal with the bedrock which is the laws of physics. I could be wrong but I struggle to believe we are close to the edge of what is possible in getting the most out of our limited resources or time. Without atomic physics, uranium would just be another shiny rock in the ground. Sand is just what covers beaches. With enough time and intelligence we've made the shiny rock power cities and persuaded the sand to solve long-standing mathematical conjectures.

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grttw1 22 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

“I don't see why that's the case when you have super-human researchers on tap. ”

Hahahaa this is what AI psychosis looks like