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throw0101d 2 hours ago

Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform:

> […] Since 1926, the median ten-year return on individual U.S. stocks relative to the broad equity market is –7.9%, underperforming by 0.82% per year. For stocks that have been among the top 20% performers over the previous five years, the median ten-year market-adjusted return falls to –17.8%, underperforming by 1.94% per year. Since the end of World War II, the median ten-year market-adjusted return of recent winners has been negative for 93% of the time. The case for diversifying concentrated positions in individual stocks, particularly in recent market winners, is even stronger than most investors realize.

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4541122

M3L0NM4N 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I mean these stocks have been performers for decades. If you posted this 10 years ago you'd look really wrong.

Lerc 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, but when their run ends they tend to underperform.

Every time.

nvme0n1p1 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If a stock market observation has no predictive power, then it's worthless.

I look forward to your weather report too: "It's always sunny outside until one day it starts raining. Every time."

2 hours ago | parent | next [-]
[deleted]
tjwebbnorfolk 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

ye, the stock market isn't magic, it's just a collection of what people think. and people can be very wrong in a big way.

nradov 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Buddy I think you missed the joke.

andrewstuart2 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Off topic, but I love your username.

tjwebbnorfolk 2 hours ago | parent [-]

hey he hacked my computer his user has a home folder inside of /dev

eternal_braid 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Many people who replied to you seem to have missed your joke. I appreciated it.

Lerc an hour ago | parent [-]

It is my curse.

Years ago, My daughter's science teacher said that school should teach a love of learning.

I replied 'I thought the point of school was to make productive worker units in society'

And while he explained to me why I was wrong I was thinking to myself 'great, now he thinks I'm a terrible person'

It seems I deadpan too effectively.

c22 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sometimes people bring me things that are broken 'cause I like to fix stuff. They always say "it was just working!"

ertgbnm 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Once you lose, you have lost. Ok, but how does that help us predict when something will lose?

nradov 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yes, it is predictive. But only retroactively.

davedx an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tautologies 'R us

uejfiweun 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Seems somewhat tautological.

pkilgore an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

well I laughed

ohyes 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

“When the stocks don’t go up they don’t match the market which generally goes up”

dheera an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

> Historically stocks that had a good run then tended to underperform

This is more of a mathematical axiom than a financial effect, because you're defining "underperform/overperform" with respect to an average that contains them.