> This is not an argument that prediction is hard, as if a sharper architect escapes it.

I disagree with this. The argument _only works_ if prediction is hard.

> Even a correct guess leaves you worse off than not committing.

Similarly, this is also confusing. If I scaffold a highly-likely feature and everything lines up, I ship the feature faster. My team isn't guaranteed to grow or even maintain our headcount, so scrambling to account for YAGNI close to the deadline feels worse than congratulating ourselves on our restraint.