> The writing is on the wall.

This thing is going to sell out.

If prices go back to normal, v2 of this product will be great. This version, at these specs, at this point in time would only be a buy if it was good value (like $500). People will buy them all anyway.

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Npovview 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Dave2D covered it very well.

https://youtu.be/Huw11M9aaMk

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foo12bar 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Selling out doesn't equate to success. They've already said the initial launch will be heavily limited.

What matters is if they make a profit throughout the product's lifecycle. Not whether they sell out on initial release.

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bryanlarsen 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Steam Deck & Machine appear to be very low margin, so Valve will make very little profit on them whether they sell a lot or a little. So profit isn't the success measure they're aiming for.

They're all just tools to get people to buy more games, which is where the margin is. And the existence of the Steam Machine makes the ecosystem more attractive even if you don't actually buy the Machine.

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esseph 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> What matters is if they make a profit throughout the product's lifecycle.

That may not matter either.

In fact, the most likely outcome is that they sell out of inventory, and the next iteration of the device gets GTA6 level hype. The scarcity of the premium product.

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foo12bar 3 days ago | parent [-]

It all depends on how well they support the current iteration, though.

If it turns into a Google Glass or an Apple Vision Pro and is left nearly or actually abandoned, then I think people won't be so interested.

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esseph 3 days ago | parent [-]

This doesn't make any sense.

They use the OS in multiple products. Tons of people run it on their own hardware.

They could probably not update a single thing on there and it wouldn't matter, the games themselves are mostly running through an emulation layer anyway and will continue to work.

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foo12bar 3 days ago | parent [-]

So what are you saying? They can do this single limited release and then discontinue it and everyone is going to be happy about it? People will just flock to the next version when it comes out and not feel burned by what happened?

Not many people run games on linux, only about 5%, amd of those nearly all keep a windows OS around to handle edge cases and upgrading firmware, etc.

This is what the fight is about. If Steam can't get linux based devices into the hands of enough people continuing to support it will remain a money pit for them for as long as they try.

Releasing the Steam box at this price is not helping their cause. They have to recover from this now.

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esseph 3 days ago | parent [-]

You don't understand how Steam works, the culture around it, or why people are excited about this.

> So what are you saying? They can do this single limited release and then discontinue it and everyone is going to be happy about it?

They're selling a gaming console, of which in their case the hardware is the least important part and a means to an end. It is commodity hardware. No integrated memory. No special sauce.

These are hardware drivers that are a part of the Linux kernel.

What they are selling is a portal (grin) to their ecosystem, and an experience that is different from their competitors. One that unlike many of their competitors, doesn't require a monthly fee to be a part of (multiplayer). AND access to it is now scarce. A limited premium product.

> Not many people run games on linux, only about 5%

You're going to find a bunch of those on this website, myself included. No windows PC laying around though.

I game on Fedora 44 w/ Steam.

> Releasing the Steam box at this price is not helping their cause. They have to recover from this now.

You just don't get it.

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foo12bar 3 days ago | parent [-]

I think you're too cloae to take any criticism. Any result seems like it'd be a success to you.

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nisegami 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

I think most of the non-success outcomes involve an objectively bad experience, regardless of the price. Example of that would be a buggy system that feels more like a cut down PC than a console. From reviews, we see that this outcome doesn't seem to be the case.

The other potential failure outcomes involve selling the product at a loss, or tying up too much cash in it and having liquidity issues while stock moves. Valve's cash flow is likely excellent, we know they're not selling it at a loss and we know they aren't producing too many.

So overall, the possible outcomes all seem like different degrees of success.

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esseph 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Valve has been working toward this ecosystem for over a decade. This is a single product offering among a growing product line that provides access to their store.

To be clear, their competitors are pretty pathetic.

> I think you're too cloae to take any criticism

I'm not even their target market, nor would I buy one when I can roll my own on my own hardware - even using SteamOS if I wanted.

https://www.theverge.com/games/953411/valve-steamos-desktop-...

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foo12bar 2 days ago | parent [-]

Their competitors are xbox and playstation and the cost is way more than each of these. You admit you won't even buy it because I guess you are too technologically inclined. And yet it's not a flop to you. Why?

The fact they've worked on running games on linux for over a decade and still only have a 5% market cap does not bode well for them.

This was supposed to be their great moment, and they ruined it with an expensive box with subpar performance. They should have waited. Now after the hype dies down and it doesn't sell, they'll just have another black eye they have to recover from.

Look, I run linux and have for 30 years. I run games on linux and have steam on linux installed myself. But I'm not trying to fool myself and others that it's some great success story. It isn't.

	▲	esseph 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		I guess time will tell. ;)

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blitzar 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Selling out doesn't equate to success

If you have no revenue, you can say you’re pre-revenue... It’s not about how much you earn. It’s about what you’re worth. And who’s worth most? Companies that lose money.