There will be frontier models that are non-commoditized, but they'll be kept guarded and hidden away, and you'll only get the final result, so that they can't be distilled and their harness can't be reverse engineered. They'll be billed like employees, rather than like a tool.

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hedora 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The non-commodity network services of the early 1990’s and the non-commodity 3d graphics hardware of the mid-1990s made the same argument.

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yandie 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I doubt that. What stops the Chinese labs from figuring it out? It’s not like these models are fundamentally different from each other

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CuriouslyC 4 hours ago | parent [-]

If all you have is the starting point and the finishing point, the lack of the path taken from one point to another limits your ability to train models that can efficiently recreate the work, and increases its cost enough that it's possible the US labs can progress capabilities faster than Chinese labs can distill that behavior.

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sealeck 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> lack of the path taken from one point to another limits your ability to train models that can efficiently recreate the work

Isn’t this the problem inference (training) a model is designed to solve :)))

	▲	jmalicki an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It is! And it's a hard problem. What's an easier form of training is being able to see the intermediate results and train to imitate them.

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wahnfrieden 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

That’s already the case. Chinese ingenuity allowed them to achieve what they did without access to reasoning outputs

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mingqiz 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Isn't that what they are doing already? The model is already guarded and hidden and i only get to send it what i want. Talk with it to clarify my requirements. And i can switch to a different provider for cheaper/better results.

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lacy_tinpot 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They tried to do that with operating systems and the browser.

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naravara 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think this will be isolated to highly specialized fields where training data will need to be selectively curated.

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greenavocado 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Everything can be distilled, it will just become more painful