> AI models have gone from barely being able to write a coherent line of code to writing most of the code at major AI companies.

Gasoline has gone from barely being able to power stationary farm machines to now being the fuel that underpins our entire economy. So, great news all around, right?

> which predict an exponential increase

And was that actually delivered?

Real question: If a model goes from 80% accurate to 85% accurate is that an exponential increase in "cognitive capabilities?" Are we considering training costs and effort?

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interestpiqued 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah I’m lost by the constant use of “exponential”. What is the x and y axis when the talking heads say this?

	▲	TobyTheCamel 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I think people are typically referring to the task-completion time horizon at a fixed success rate [1]. That has had pretty robust exponential scaling for many years now. [1] https://metr.org/time-horizons/