SpaceX already has 10,000 satellites on orbit that are basically preview versions of space data centers. They've already paid 5 years of that 5-10 year timeline you outlined.

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adgjlsfhk1 13 hours ago | parent [-]

the math doesn't work. a starlink satellite has ~10kw power consumption. A single ai optimized server rack (GB300) is 140kw. Starlink works because you get a massive benefit from putting networking in space for rural users. no one has made a convincing case as to why putting a data center in space is a benefit that can come anywhere near the drawbacks (inability to service, launch cost, cooling etc)

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JumpCrisscross 12 hours ago | parent [-]

> no one has made a convincing case as to why putting a data center in space is a benefit that can come anywhere near the drawbacks

Permitting. And the main drawback is cooling. If you want to sell a company to SpaceX, build a better radiator.

I’m not saying the math maths. But it isn’t fundamentally fucked in the way a lot of armchair commentary has been making it out to be.

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adgjlsfhk1 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Even permitting isn't a clear win. You are changing from land permitting (where you can pick the location to be wherever you want) to launch permitting (where you have to coordinate with the federal government for airspace and water closures). Not to mention that with the current regulatory status, a rocket explosion can easily lead to a multi-month mandatory safety review that blocks all new launches.

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JumpCrisscross 10 hours ago | parent [-]

> changing from land permitting (where you can pick the location to be wherever you want) to launch permitting (where you have to coordinate with the federal government for airspace and water closures)

One of these is orders of magnitudes longer and more complicated than the other. Land permitting always involves multiple layers of government. And most of them are causing months- to yearslong delays. (Power hook-up is another source of delay.) Launch permits are predictably issued by, essentially, a single regulator.

> a rocket explosion can easily lead to a multi-month mandatory safety review that blocks all new launches

Which is equivalent to a regular permiting delay.

The tradeoff is between the cost to launch radiator mass and the delays local and state governments cause in permiting. The first is mediated through launch costs. The latter through interest rates. And right now, the former is going down and the latter going up.

	▲	notahacker 8 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Plenty of world to jurisdiction shop beyond the US, most of which also has cheap land and plenty of sun, and for better and worse much of that world is less regulated than launch (and FCC spectrum licensing if you want your data back) and easier to skip the queue with comparatively small amounts of money. Hell, if you like your unit economics to be dependent on solving physics problems most of the earth's surface doesn't need permits at all...