| ▲ | No Raise, No Promotion: 1 in 4 White-Collar Workers Are Stalling Out(wsj.com) |
| 96 points by charliebwrites an hour ago | 65 comments |
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| ▲ | arsan87 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| At my workplace we were hyped up for a special announcement during a company meeting. this is after, literally, years of layoffs, offshoring, cut after cut to benefits, and restructurings. Morale is incredibly low. The big announcement is they are giving everyone one extra day off around a national holiday as a reward. We already have "unlimited" PTO but of course can't really use it. So their reward is letting us use a benefit we already supposedly had. |
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| ▲ | hylaride 17 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | "It's the least we can do, so it's the least we will do..." | |
| ▲ | dabidab 11 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yikes. Talk about a slap in the face. Who let them even propose that? Maybe next they’ll give you housing from the company property, and sell groceries from the company store, and see a company doctor. |
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| ▲ | figmert an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There's no reward for loyalty any more, and it's caused everyone to job hop (at least while that was possible), including me. At the time, employees complained about it, and in the same breath refused to give out any promotions and/or reward employees. Or they'd reward them with some shitty voucher. The world has literally become the people vs corporations. There is no soul in working any more. |
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| ▲ | deburo an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | When was it different? I never saw that in big corporations, only SMBs when the founders were still at the helm. | | |
| ▲ | arkh 19 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | My theory is: when it started being a bad thing to have any cash reserve. With some reserve on the side, a company can survive bad times and not fire people. This is the kind of behavior employee will appreciate and make some diehard loyal. But this available money is money not making more. So that's a bad thing these days and so the only easy variable available to survive is to remove excess workforce. It took some time for people to understand loyalty has been one-way only but now employers are reaping what they've sown. | |
| ▲ | smallmancontrov 35 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | There was famously an inflection point 40-50 years ago where wages decoupled from productivity to the downside. I'm sure it wasn't perfect before then, but things did change. | | |
| ▲ | altairprime 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The last time we hit this low point was in the Gilded Age, when the economic producers essentially revolted and forced governments to regulate against capitalistic greed. As you correctly identify, in the early 80s U.S. leadership figured out that if you issue debt more freely then you can get the economic growth of ‘household spend goes up’, ‘production and GDP goes up’, and ‘foreign currencies weaken versus the dollar’ without having to force* corporations to pay out profits as wage increases against their will. One bonus outcome is that you end up with lifelong debtors who are forced to accept work circumstances that they wouldn’t have to accept if they still had wage negotiating power. Too bad about the demonization of unions in tech, eh? * A tax on (gross revenue – wages – cogs) with rate (cpi + fedrate) ^ 0.9 would be an excellent start, with an exponential factor that halts ‘shift the tax to consumers through simple price increases’ — the more you earn, the more you have to raise prices, which raises inflation, which raises your future tax by more than your price increase; the more revenue you pay out as wages instead of shareholder dividends, the lower you can set prices, which lowers inflation, which lowers your future tax — and adding the FFER lever allows the Fed to perform their mission to control (price) inflation not only with banks but also with businesses. | |
| ▲ | TheRoque 17 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Are you talking about the end of the Bretton-Woods agreement? https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/ I mean, it's cherry picked, but still funny to see all those charts. | |
| ▲ | 9rx 18 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Obviously wages and productivity had to decouple. Wages measure human labor, while productivity measures all output, including that which comes from automation. ~50 years ago is when automation started to become more than a curiosity in industry. Human productivity to wages have kept pace with each other, though, so there is nothing to suggest anything has changed for the human. It is not like the robots are seeking promotions (yet). | | |
| ▲ | contagiousflow 9 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > ~50 years ago is when automation started to become more than a curiosity in industry Where did you get that idea from? |
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| ▲ | rustystump 21 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | If this is what i think it is, then yes. Life for humans has rarely been fair but that inflection point is startling. It tracks the wealth gap growing too irrc. |
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| ▲ | Rp8yXmdmr 30 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The thing that changed was perception. People no longer believe loyalty to employer is worthwhile, just as they no longer believe hard work is what gets people rich. | | |
| ▲ | voakbasda 24 minutes ago | parent [-] | | They no longer believe it is worthwhile, because the landscape changed: companies found they no longer needed to treat their employees was well as they had. (Driven largely by the shift around that time toward quarterly results over long term sustainability, as I understand it.) And thus began a race to the bottom. |
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| ▲ | unethical_ban 19 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | 30 years ago and prior for a generation or two. Employees had pensions instead of 401ks where tenure built up a guaranteed fixed income payment at retirement. Now we're all tied to the stock market. Oh, and back then a single income could support a working-class family to buy a decent house, two cars and maybe send a kid or two to college. | | |
| ▲ | hylaride 11 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Those pensions could also be tied to the market, or more often the profitability of the company that ran it. There are many, many cases of underfunded pensions by bankrupt companies causing issues. All being equal, I'll take the job hopping and my own retirement account. I agree it's more expensive than ever to afford to raise a family, though. There's also a malaise in the air that I don't think broader society has felt since the late 1970s, too. |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 30 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | 20-30 years ago in private sector. Still is in government. | | |
| ▲ | barbazoo 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I'm having a hard time finding data on employee tenure that would support this. There seems to be a recent dip but it's only significant relatively, not in absolute numbers based on what I expected. Which was something like 25 years tenure not that long ago but that wasn't the case, more like 5. |
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| ▲ | MangoCoffee 17 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | two weeks notice when you leave but where's the two weeks notice when they fired you. | | |
| ▲ | stringfood 15 minutes ago | parent [-] | | this could be because the business have all the power in the relationship, especially in bad job markets like today. When they hold all the cards they can make us dance for them and they never dance for us | | |
| ▲ | qsxfthnkp2322 3 minutes ago | parent [-] | | These companies are making more money than they ever have. I’m tired of all the excuses for shit leadership. They all can go to h** when they die. |
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| ▲ | CooCooCaCha 23 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Capitalism is trending towards uncertainty. - Job security is getting lower. - Insurance is getting spotty, will this be covered? Maybe? - Companies are testing dynamic pricing. - The rise of prediction markets. Eventually the economy is going to be constantly gambling on our lives. Every ounce of certainty is a potential money making opportunity. |
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| ▲ | jandrewrogers 6 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Stalling out on promotion has always happened. It can be explained almost entirely by two factors: As you become more senior, the success metrics for your role change significantly. Mentoring only goes so far because there is a large element of self-awareness and a willingness to change. Some people never recognize this and many never successfully adapt to what seniority entails. It is the career equivalent of trying to raise a Series B with a Series Seed pitch deck. There are a much smaller number of senior roles than people who can be promoted into them. Above a certain level promotions are highly competitive. You are being stack-ranked against everyone else that can do the same job and tenure is only an input into that calculus to the extent it gives you unique domain expertise. A successful strategy for avoiding hyper-competitive promotions is to create a new promotion-like role that doesn't really exist. However, this requires a level of initiative and agency that most employees never exhibit, and these opportunities only exist at specific moments in time. Raises, on the other hand, are largely impacted by complex financial and economic considerations. Many companies could do much better at this but even then I think employees significantly underestimate the network of opportunity costs that must be considered. |
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| ▲ | jvanderbot 2 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If I can just hold at this role for 6 more years, I'm happy. I chased promotions for a decade and regretted all but the first two, which brought me to this level. There's a larger issue with that though: At some point, successful engineers _need_ to become examples or leaders if we are to continue exponential growth. If you are happy discontinuing exponential growth, then that's fine. |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 39 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > No Raise, No Promotion They forgot the “More work, Constant threat of Unemployment” part |
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| ▲ | bluefirebrand 29 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Exactly. The reason there are no raises and no promotions is because of this "just be thankful you have a job and income at all" mentality that exists in the current environment | | |
| ▲ | natpalmer1776 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | (Disclaimer: Tech sector specific) It’s wild how different things are at different levels over time. When I started about 8 years ago, any technical skills and experience on your resume / LinkedIn would have recruiters reaching out non-stop. That died out over the last 3 years and I didn’t have anyone reaching out for jobs. Recently I updated my profile to state I’m a staff engineer and suddenly I’m getting messages like nothing ever happened. Senior engineer? Maybe one recruiter every 3 months. | |
| ▲ | dfxm12 4 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | This works because so many benefits are tied to work requirements. It's a systemic issue. Our employers enjoy the backing of our policy makers. If your health insurance (let alone you + your kids') becomes too expensive, it means taking time off to do things like train for a better job, risk starting a new job, etc., are untenable. |
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| ▲ | Papazsazsa 7 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There is a handover premium that you pay when you churn which often exceeds whatever savings you think you might find. Inertia and institutional knowledge are two of the biggest drags, not to mention morale, hidden costs recruiting fees, ramp time, and customer relationships. It's fake bottom-line thinking that optimizes a few items while ignoring second and third-order effects. Innumeracy with a finance vocabulary. |
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| ▲ | tiffanyh 29 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Would it be wrong to flip the narrative and say "3 in 4 (75%), don't feel this way"? Not trolling, genuine question. |
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| ▲ | nemomarx 28 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Yeah if it's only 25 percent that's not as bad as I expected. I would have thought closer to half? | |
| ▲ | chomp 26 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Only if that 3 in 4 number is increasing (documenting a trend) But that doesn’t appear to be the case. | |
| ▲ | zeroonetwothree 27 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Clearly you aren’t a journalist |
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| ▲ | neversupervised 42 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Years of experience don’t correlate to output in all careers. Surgeons and engineers get better over time. This might not be true for all jobs. Meanwhile, management is naturally capped because every manager necessarily needs people to manage under them, so there’ll be 1/N^y managers at the yth level of the org. Unless loyalty ought to be reward for its own sake, it’s not clear why 100% of workers should get promoted indefinitely. |
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| ▲ | sjhatfield 38 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It's not that promotions should be given out indefinitely but I think a pay raise in line with inflation should be the minimum, unless you are under performing. It's funny when a company excitedly shares a pay raise with you are it's below inflation... | | |
| ▲ | nradov 15 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Merit raises are typically based on market rates as a baseline. The employees' costs in terms of consumer price inflation are not a factor. If every employer gives out raises in line with inflation that also creates a positive feedback loop which contributes to higher and higher inflation every year (I do understand that's not the only thing which drives inflation rates). If your wages are falling behind then look for opportunities in higher growth sectors. | |
| ▲ | bluGill 32 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | I always look at inflation when I get a raise. Or if they are skipping raises because of the economy - I compare to inflation. I accept that as a staff level engineer I've reached about the top of what I can make - but I still expect my income to match inflation, and I have left when it doesn't. |
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| ▲ | derekp7 29 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | There is a dual ladder setup. Where you can have Administrator, Systems Engineer, Sr. Systems Engineer, Lead, Architect, Sr Architect, etc. These will have parallel tracks to equiv. management positions for benefits and perks (bonus levels, etc). Now obviously you can't have every employee promoted to a Sr. Architect or Fellow, but that is ok be cause not everyone can (or want to) obtain that necessary skill set. A while back I recall seeing a grid with various levels, what management title that would typically mirror, and the skills that would be required for each level. |
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| ▲ | Havoc 22 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Not sure about stall but it sure feels like employers are capitalising on this sense that everyone is keen to hold on to their job |
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| ▲ | NoLinkToMe an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I was at my previous company for almost 10 years, I had annual promotions and I roughly 4x'd my annual income in this period, which averages to about 15% of year-on-year pay increases. Part inflation, part growth in skills. Virtually all of that happened in the first 8 years. In the last 2 years I also stalled and saw minor inflation corrections of 2% a year, so I quit. In my experience it had everything to do with me. In the first 8 I was very hungry, and always willing to take on something more or different. In the last 2 I was very much set on just coasting and doing what I was already doing, and it translated in them paying what they had always paid me, plus a little for inflation correction. I think the truth is usually that if others don't stall and you do, that the solution probably sits with you as well. That having been said, I think now with AI the value-add of an employee sees so much pressure, that I think stalling will be a major trend. |
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| ▲ | smallmancontrov 38 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | "Work hard and it will be recognized" is terrible, horrible, no good, very bad advice. "Tit for tat" is the most generous to the company anyone should ever be: try working hard, if it's recognized then continue, if it isn't see if you can politic until it is, and in the very likely circumstance that it continues to not be recognized either jump for a pay bump or work like you're paid. | | |
| ▲ | NoLinkToMe 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I didn't say work hard. But if you keep contributing what you already contributed previously and nothing changes, your salary likely also doesn't change. Changing that doesn't necessarily require working hard, I haven't made any such claim. In fact my salary inversely correlated with my effort. But I do recognize that when I stopped changing things (i.e. my role in the company became stagnant), my salary also remained stagnant. |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 22 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | If you had annual promotions for 10 years and you 4x your salary, you pretty much got what I got job hopping twice in 4 years, and it had nothing to do with hard work or my skills. Good market conditions, luck and leaving when you’re getting short changed is what got me that. |
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| ▲ | nradov 20 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Kind of a silly article. If you're working in education administration or local government then why would you even expect career progression? These are not growth industries. |
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| ▲ | OutOfHere 2 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It may be better for workers to stick to six month contracts at a good hourly rate. Note that there must necessarily exist a clause in the contract that requires an early termination of the contract by the employer to leading to 50% of the wages for the remainder of the contract being paid immediately to the worker. A worker may terminate the contract early only for a documented medical reason. All of this together is meant to everyone honest, transparent, and non-exploitative. |
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| ▲ | datadrivenangel an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| https://archive.is/UoLx0 |
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| ▲ | gaiagraphia 29 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Isn't it a natural pattern in empire? Everything grows, there's a huge administration class employed who manage to live in relative luxury from the profits, then as relative power and influence recedes, those jobs are the first to get cut. It's an international market and everybody's using the same skills and tools. It's insane to think that 6 digit salaries would forever be sustainable when the rest of the world is doing the same stuff. Developing tech to knock down barriers also paves over moats. I think the west is going to be in for some very trying times in the coming decades. The UK is a fascinating place to look at in this regard. |
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| ▲ | smallmancontrov 27 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > administration class Well it couldn't possibly have anything to do with the capital class, the "responsible" owners of the economy. Everyone knows that credit goes to capital and blame goes to workers! |
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| ▲ | nsxwolf 44 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I'm pushing 50 now and I hit the wall almost 10 years ago. No real raises, new opportunities pay less. Inflation has been ratcheting down on me constantly, and my family has to make continual changes to stay in the black. ALDI is great though! |
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| ▲ | Frieren 43 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Big tech owns a big chunk of the job market.
So, the job market is not a market but a centralized system were big-tech has all the power to shape it. Unionizing is just part of the fighting back. Only splitting the big monopolies can bring back competition and healthy salaries and promotions. Monopolies are bad for consumers, but they are also bad for employees when that monopolies control most of the jobs of the industry. |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 37 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > Big tech owns a big chunk of the job market Big tech employs less than 1% of the people in the country. | | |
| ▲ | 9rx 28 minutes ago | parent [-] | | To be fair to the parent, jobs require capital, and big tech owns a big chunk of the capital, and thus do own a big chunk of the job market even if they aren't putting it to work. Which is part of the underlying problem. Those with capital don't really need workers and the areas of the economy who could put workers to work in a bigger way don't have the capital to do so. |
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| ▲ | supertroop 21 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I’ve been in the industry for 40 years. This has always been a complaint. Always. It is not new. UNIONIZE |
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| ▲ | 9rx 9 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I've been in the industry for 30 years. "UNIONIZE" has always been the suggested answer. Always. But nobody ever steps up and actually does it, even despite the people being already socially united through platforms like HN, making formalization about as easy as can be possible. |
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| ▲ | dominotw an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| not getting laidoff is like a promotion now |
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| ▲ | nsxwolf an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/no-raise... |
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| ▲ | recursivedoubts an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This has been the case for most of Gen X's career: there was very little mentoring, very little succession planning and career shaping. Instead Boomers (who came into an economy where these things, along with pensions, etc. still existed) took over early and have stayed in leadership roles longer than previous generations. A look at congress provides a template. |
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| ▲ | mystraline an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This has been true for at least since 2008. The only times Ive gotten promotions was to get hired elsewhere. Better title, more money. Its well known that retention budgets are laughable or nonexistant, and new hire budgets are well stocked. That means that if you want to grow from what youre doing, you gotta leave. |
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| ▲ | bluGill an hour ago | parent [-] | | Every few years companies give a large raise to everyone when they notice they can't hire people and the ones they have are leaving. So if you don't manage to find a new job it isn't hopeless, so long as enough people are leaving. Of course if you don't leave they may lay you off at any time. However assuming that doesn't happen they will eventually give you a large raise. | | |
| ▲ | Lord_Zero 42 minutes ago | parent [-] | | There is no guarantee that will happen. "Just hold out until they are desperate enough that they HAVE to give you a large raise!" is laughable. Every single day you don't quit and get paid what you are worth, is a day you are leaving money on the table. Imagine waiting years for that big raise when you could have left and made tens to hundreds of thousands more in that time. | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 35 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I did not say don't look for a new job though. I said that if you can't find one. Sometimes you can't find a better job - better is more than just pay, there are other factors that may apply to you personally (ethics of the job, working hours, where they need you to work, how much travel...) Holding out isn't ideal, but it might be the best for you. |
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| ▲ | everdrive 43 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Interestingly, I've heard that job hopping no longer pays better than staying in place. I can't say if this is true (and no matter what's true, I'm sure that people have anecdotal exceptions!) but it would be quite discouraging if so. |
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| ▲ | bluGill 29 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | There are too many "it depends" to make any statement. The economy isn't running hot now, and that means those who are forced to job hop (laid off) provide enough potential hires that companies don't need to try to pay someone more to leave. The real question is will this change? Will companies start valuing long term employees thus making it not worthwhile to leave? Only time will tell (I wouldn't bet on it though). | |
| ▲ | trgn 31 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Anecdotally it's true imho. accrual of benefits, sbc and wage-indexing, ... job hopping puts you at the ground floor of each, and salary jumps have narrowed. |
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