Seems pretty reasonable to me. Timescales are hard for anyone to predict. He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance. Surprisingly, he underbought compute and now has to scramble to secure it from xAI or wherever he can. So he was overly conservative...

▲

hansmayer an hour ago | parent [-]

> Timescales are hard for anyone to predict

Indeed. That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD

> He is forced to do these predictions to know how much compute to buy in advance

Ah well, that explains it. For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.

▲

aspenmartin an hour ago | parent [-]

> That's why serious people are very careful, even if they are not running a company supposedly worth 1T USD

10x revenue growth per year, even more this year...his predictions about when agents will claim SWE e2e work are his speculations, relevant because people care about what he thinks as he is closer than anyone to the leading edge of the technology. It's also important for him to be as accurate as he can about this because he has to put his money where his mouth is. He has to sign the right amount of compute otherwise he screws himself. He got it wrong in the opposite direction that you're implying, so at this point it sounds like you are more interested in your axe to grind than the truth on the ground.

You think enterprises are adopting CC because they think "oh this will replace my SWEs I can fire them"? That's not happening at major companies. They buy CC because it's useful and the writing is so clearly on the wall in so many data points that to suggest otherwise is a bit silly at this point.

> For my companies next quarter, I'll just pull some random numbers out of my ass so we can make plans with material impact to company business based on that.

You, as a leader of a company, don't have to make predictions? Don't have to make bets about what the best thing for you to do next year? That must be incredibly nice.

Amodei and everyone else need to plan compute and plan their products and roadmap. You want him to....not do that?

▲

hansmayer 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

> 10x revenue growth per year

To the stunning tune of 5B in the lifetime .

> You think enterprises are adopting CC because they think "oh this will replace my SWEs I can fire them"?

Yeah, that's actually Darios main talking point

> They buy CC because it's useful and the writing is so clearly on the wall in so many data points that to suggest otherwise is a bit silly at this point

Right, really sound arguments - writing is "clearly on the wall" and there are "so many data points". I'd be keen to use those immediately, but I am kind of missing the key of the "many data points" - namely, what did you build with it and how much ARR is it generating?

> You, as a leader of a company, don't have to make predictions

I have to make predictions, but not confabulations, lies and idiocies.

> Amodei and everyone else need to plan compute

FOR WHAT? Again, what was built with their shitty product in various companies and how much ARR did it generate? Uber seems to get no value out of it.

	▲	aspenmartin 4 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Anthropic has generated far more than 5B in revenue, I don’t know what sort of computer you have but it evidently does have the Internet, I would recommend using that unless the Internet CEOs are also in trouble for hyping that one up. > Right, really sound arguments - writing is "clearly on the wall" and there are "so many data points". Thank you for recognizing this. Don’t read Ed and think you understand anything about AI is all I’ll say. Read epoch capability index paper and look at the dashboard chart or the METR time horizon chart and methodology and then return with what I imagine from historical comments will be another ferocious and impressive act of mental gymnastics. > I have to make predictions, but not confabulations, lies and idiocies. Idk you’ve been misquoting and aggressively against addressing any facts you are presented with and yet bring no facts of your own (hint: if you know what you’re talking about typically you can calmly discuss with actual facts). That feels pretty similar to confabulations, I won’t say idiocy I’m sure you are not an idiot but you seem to have a lot in common with your caricatures of tech CEOs. > FOR WHAT? Their product.