>If you have AI systems that can simply build out POCs in days, backtest on real data, show reliable results and numbers, you get a suite of product options you were never able to get before. If you have coding agents that can speed up implementation, you can build more stuff and choose the things that stick.

I'll also add this: within a large organization, you often need to interact with many different codebases owned by many different teams. Agents have made it much easier to wrangle by having the ability to deploy one to scope out your web of dependencies to learn about what would be needed for feature X, and how that integration can happen.

We've been doing far more away team work simply because it makes things move faster. It's easier to convince a team to sign off/review something than it is to get them to commit to the planning and eventual work.

It genuinely is helping things move faster inside large organizations. Or at least, it is for us, particularly since we're getting organizational prioritization to actually build the scaffolding to make those agents more effective at search.

Pieces of concept and other prototypes have always been cheap (see hackatons). The main issue is that as soon as you’re touching customer data or modifying process they’ve paid you for, you have to be really careful. No one wants to be responsible for an outage that cost the company its biggest customer.

What I think is happening is that the scale of thing you can hope to build at a below-corporate scale should radically grow. Corporate environments should suffer for this, being that inefficient.

> YCombinator was founded on that premise - small teams of founders and early employees could be orders of magnitudes more productive than the 1000s of corporate employees at their competitors.

I think this is still true, but the theory is:

1. You don't need YC-type funding to do YC-type business any more; 2. You don't need to scale the business past those small teams any more, you just buy more tokens.

For clarity YC still obviously has a place as an incubator, mentoring, and networking function. I just think that what was previously the inevitable conclusion that you have to hire all the people the second you hit PMF to keep up with scaling the business as you scale sales is no longer inevitable. If you didn't want to go that way before AI, you were a "lifestyle business" and not worth investing in. As more and more knowledge functions get capably implemented by AI, it's the preferred position: humans are vastly more expensive than tokens, so you want them doing the stuff the AI still can't do.

I don't think this necessarily translates to mass unemployment. I think it translates to masses of smaller businesses that are radically more efficient because the handoffs between business functions are tool calls, not emails to someone who doesn't want to help.

> The Internet was revolutionary because it let millions of people bring products to market without asking permission.

Think about it this way: if I am a small business owner but I think it makes sense to do something that previously only a team in a corporate environment could do but is now within the reach of AI, not only can I do it now, but I also don't have to ask anyone for permission! Who wins between the corporation and the small business in that scenario?

> AI doesn't really have that property - if anything, it makes things more centralized, with more gatekeepers, and so seems more likely to destroy economic value than add to it.

I think this will turn out to be backwards. I can see a version of this where the number of things you can do without needing to turn to a gatekeeper for help increases to the extent that the balance completely inverts.

The vast majority of businesses are small, and AI can give them tools which previously required corporate scale to make sense, without the inefficient hand-offs between busy, political humans. Which is also something that the internet did! Getting an advert in front of a national market pre-internet was Hard but sometimes you had to do it because your target market was "all Canadians who buy toothpaste" or whatever and that meant saturation-bombing the physical environment with physical billboard ads, posters, flyers, and so on. So you only did it if you were P&G-scale. Now you, personally, can do it, trivially, for better or worse.

I am not sure this feels right. I agree that the US currently has leading minds in terms of tech, but I am not sure it is too big of difference with the EU knowledge workers. EU is still a lot cheaper then US in terms of wages you would need to pay.

Outsourcing of knowledge workers is still ramping up. The issue in the past was the skills were few and far between internationally. Facilities were also not built. That has changed now in a lot of fields. New campuses have been built in places like Bangalore and Hyderabad, even Singapore. The skills are there now, the training is decent, and you can see that the hiring is going on for very skilled titles in these cities. It is a different animal than just 10 years ago in this.

That's certainly part of it. But the other part that I've heard time and time again is that in order for outsourcing to be successful you basically needed an american engineer in the mix hand holding everything, clarifying requirements, and vetoing bad code.

That part of dev work, the requirements gathering, attention to details, clarifying requirements, is something AI also struggles with. A lot of companies basically waste time and money on outsourced devs because without a clear path forward they effectively will sit and do nothing, waiting for a prompt.

Yes, but I do worry about junior knowledge worker job loss. These models are very good (and getting better) at the vast dark matter of "donkey work" that happens in knowledge-based industries -- work typically done by junior devs / analysts / lawyers / consultants, paralegals, admin assistants, customer success / support, etc. -- and those roles comprise the bulk of the workforce.

And worse, these are the tasks that help the junior people eventually grow into the skilled knowledge workers required to operate models, so there's a pipeline problem too.

We'll get around to training job specific models or the equivalent. Thats just lower on the value chain for now.

Sure. I was challenging the parent on how the “game” they are positing would play out.

Back then people were mostly farmers, but we already automated that job away.

Not completely, but compared to the middle ages we 50x'd their output. Which is a great illustration what it means to make a job 50 times more productive. We went from 80-90% of the population being required to barely make enough food for everyone to survive, to 4% of the population producing such an abundance that consuming too much food has become a systemic health issue

There definitely were what could be considered knowledge workers in the (high) middle ages, it just wasn't the majority of work like today. The knowledge workers then were just a tiny, elite faction, mostly employed by the church or directly by nobility. Kindgoms were still big bureaucracies and needed scribes, theologians, academics, lawyers.

Relatively few anyway. Monks (who wrote and edited books and managed libraries, and also taught), artists and musicians, bookkeepers/treasury/exchequer, scribes/chancery (who were the administrators of the kingdoms), and bankers all existed in European "middle ages". But a significantly smaller part of economy/society compared to "western world" now, yes.

There wasn’t 20x value to pay for in the middle ages either.

Are you sure? Any functional organization requires keepers to oil the machine. First the government. The best examples were the chinese empire, the catholic church, and the various kingdoms. Or do you think that everyone was either fighting or farming? Stewardship is knowledge work. Bookkeeping is another.

SVB didn't get bailed out, their investors and creditors were wiped out. You could argue depositors were bailed out -- as they took the undue risk of keeping more than $250k in a single bank (though as part of a requirement for getting a loan from SVB, you had to have your operating accounts with them. So lots of companies had no choice, as SVB was one of the few banks that would lend to them).

Arguably, the main impact of securing SVB depositors above the $250k limit is that it prevented thousands of people from being laid off that week, as their employers wouldn't have had the money to make payroll the following Wednesday.

> UBI only exists for companies

What's the U stand for in UBI?