"Distinguishing hype from reality is not easy. But recent developments mean that ambitious promises could be fulfilled. "

Just like AI is changing the world before our eyes, this may be just such a technology. Maybe I will come to resent them when they are omnipresent, but a person-transporting drone (EVTOL) flying on a solid state battery would be transformative in connecting people, and I cannot wait to see it happen. The EU has committed 500bn in inter-european railway investment by 2050. Maybe it will be entirely disrupted? Who knows.

Batteries are quite good already. You can wait for the next big thing, or get something that works and scales right now.

Battery production is now measured in multiple twh of capacity per year. That goes into vehicles of all types with any number and size of wheels, grid storage solutions, and domestic storage. People use them all over the world now. Including some developing economies.

There are many quality attributes you can look with batteries at: cost per kwh, weight per kwh, volume per kwh, charge/discharge rates, longevity in charge cycles, operating temperatures, robustness, chance of flammability (near zero with some cell types), etc. Better is a meaningless qualification unless you express it in those.

And what is best and what is optimal are two things. There's a reason LFP is dominating rather than NMC. It's good enough and a lot cheaper even though it has slightly less energy. For the same reason sodium ion is being put into some cars. It doesn't have the energy density. But it's cheap, operates in arctic and desert temperatures, and they last pretty long.

When it comes to new battery chemistries, it takes time to go from a lab breakthrough to mass production. Sodium ion is now being mass produced. A few years ago there was only low volume production. And before that, the technology was stuck in various stages of the R&D pipeline at various companies. From a lab prototype in a university to an actual proof of concept might take several years. And from there to production many years longer.

With solid state, there are about at least half a dozen technology companies that are moving from test samples to low volume production in the next years. Mostly the technology is proven and validated at this point. But it might still take until at least the end of the decade before we see any mass production. Building big factories costs billions and is super risky. Companies don't do that unless they are certain something will work.

Solid state will have to compete on quality and price. High density solid state in cheap cars is not likely to be a thing for cost reasons. But they might be popular with drone and sports car manufacturers. The press is unfortunately a bit sensationalist on this front and it creates unrealistic expectations.

https://archive.is/ReAtU

You'll need to get your hands on Greenland first.

With both battery tech and quantum, you have to separate out "commercial availability" vs "laboratory availability".

I doubt we have even scratched the surface of battery technology though.

Everyone's been talking about breakthroughs for batteries for years. Until I see one on the shelf, it doesn't matter. Go make them better, and come back once they actually are!

I've even seen ceramic batteries being tested on YouTube as long as 7 YEARS ago [0], but I still can't actually buy one.

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJXRyWQgOY4

solid state batteries - perpetually only 5 years away

There are continual improvements in batteries all the time making them better, cheaper, and they are being deployed with exponential growth.

Silly headline. Just say solid state, yet again, the thing that's always been around the corner while lithium ion and sodium just ship ship ship on a massive scale.

If solid state works out, great, but it would no longer be a big breakthrough. Batteries are here and a major grid component today.