| ▲ | jmyeet 5 hours ago |
| First hantavirus now this. Look, there's valid reason to be concerned here but people who are fearing a repeat of the Covid-19 pandemic are seemingly missing why Covid was a pandemic. Covid spread so much for four main reasons: 1. It could spread airborne; 2. It spread relatively easily. Not quite measles-level of contagiousness but still, pretty good; 3. Unlike something like the flu, there really wasn't any kind of natural resistance. What we now call the modern flu is a descendant of the Spanish flu that killed tends of millions in 1919-1920 in its first outbreak and it becamse less lethal for a variety of reasons; and 4. (This is the big one) It would spread when the carrier was asymptomatic. The flu can also spread asymptomatically but AFAIK it's less common. People with the flu tend to self-isolate showing symptoms. Still, what's probably most concerning about Covid is the number of people who truly believe it was and is fake. The public health implications of that as well as the societal and psychological impacts is something we're going to be studying for decades to come. The exact contagion mechanism for hantavirus isn't confirmed. Previously it's been from, say, rat to human. It's believed there was human-to-human transmission with the plague cruise ship of doom but whatever the case, it's simply not as contagious. Ebola generally requires contact to spread. How it's spread in a lot of these African regions has historically been from funeral rites. Family of the deceased would touch the body and this contact would spread the disease. So while it was quite contagious, it didn't spread airborne (as far as we know). It's also quite lethal, which naturally tends to limit spread. The king of long-dormant viruses is of course HIV. But at least we aren't dealing with cordyceps [1] so we've got that going for us at least. [1]: https://thelastofus.fandom.com/wiki/Cordyceps_brain_infectio... |
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| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Covid turned into a pandemic because it wasn't taken seriously at the start. (Looking at you, China.) Public-health experts never seemed concerned about hantavirus. They are with this. It's appropriate to take their declarations seriously. > Ebola generally requires contact to spread "Human infection occurs through close contact with the blood or secretions of infected wildlife, such as bats or non-human primates, and subsequently spreads from person to person through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected individuals or contaminated surfaces. Transmission is particularly amplified in health-care settings when infection prevention and control (IPC) measures are inadequate, and during unsafe burial practices involving direct contact with the deceased" [1]. So yes on traditional burial. But much easier to spread than HIV. [1] https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2... |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | First, we still don't know the origins of Covid-19. The most accepted answer is zoonotic origin but there are problems with that, namely that Wuhan is far from the suspected bats and there is no documented case of Covid-19 in any wild population. The other competing theory is the "lab leak" family but again there's no evidence of this eitehr. Research and findings of Covid-19 in Italian sewerage suggest that Covid-19 might've been circulating in Italy in 2019 [1]. So another possibility is that Covid-19 resulted from forming a virulent strain in a person who was infected with multiple strains at once [2]. We may never know the true origins of Covid-19. So with asymptomatic spread and a novel virus, it's unlikely that whatever China did actually mattered at all. Once cases reached the US in particular, it was game over. People just can't miss work. There were very few places that maintain zero Covid for any significant period of time (eg Australia) through a combination of luck, geography and extreme quarantine. By geography I mean Australia doesn't have any land borders. And even then it only lasted so long. [1]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7428442/ [2]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9059428/ |
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| ▲ | ticulatedspline 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| forgot 5. Covid was exactly the right amount of deadly, 0.5-1% which made it easy to "roll the dice" on making containment harder. |
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| ▲ | jandrewrogers 32 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | The IFR for COVID was ~0.1%, about the same as measles. | |
| ▲ | JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Covid was exactly the right amount of deadly, 0.5-1% Tough to say that's "exactly the right amount of deadly" for a pandemic when the Black Death and Spanish flu killed larger fractions of their total affected populations (in the latter case, of humans) [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics_and_pandemic... | |
| ▲ | the__alchemist 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It was good practice for pandemic response. I think (blasphemy, which on its own is wild) the global reaction was too strong on an acute level, but was worth it as prepararion for a deadlier pandemic. | | |
| ▲ | amanaplanacanal 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It was a natural reaction though. People saw the Italian hospitals overflowing and thought "oh crap! We can't let that happen here!" At least where I am they tightened and/or relaxed restrictions on a county by county level based on how full hospital beds were getting. | |
| ▲ | delecti 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | In another time it might have been good practice, but in reality I think, between the grifters pushing fear and those just too self-centered to go a few months without a haircut (yes oversimplifying and straw-manning), it actually precluded the chance that many people will ever cooperate with a pandemic response again. |
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| ▲ | rob_c 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | and that's a whopping over-estimate |
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| ▲ | trvz 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > People with the flu tend to self-isolate showing symptoms. Do you have any other fantasy tales you’d like to tell? |
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| ▲ | pixl97 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Yea, I recently caught flu from someone else that "could not miss their work". So these things don't really apply well to the US at all. | | |
| ▲ | roryirvine 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Was it actually flu, or just a bad cold? I've had flu twice, and both times I simply wouldn't have been able to leave the house no matter how much I wanted to - even just turning over in bed was a major effort! Would people not have spotted their shivering and sweating and sent them straight home again? | | |
| ▲ | globular-toast 4 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Influenza symptoms vary widely from person to person and strain to strain. All the way from symptomless to dead. |
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| ▲ | mystraline 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yep. This is called "food service". Shit pay, no benefits, and managers who threaten to fire you if you dont show up. Sick? Puke in the bathroom. Whys this the case? Cause we Americans have garbage for labor laws. You can be fired for pretty much any reason. And you are NOT protected if youre sick. When I had to work food seevice, at starbucks, subway, random pizza chain, etc, I begrudgingly came in sick, infected LOADS of customers. My choice was to work, or get fired (or not fired but 0 hours for next 2 weeks on schedule as punishment). Who knows how many I got sick and potentially killed due to compromised immune systems. Im sure I did. This is the real, hidden external cost, of our unmitigated capitalism. People get sick and die for the reason of making the boss more money, and too fucking bad. | | |
| ▲ | pixl97 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | >Cause we Americans have garbage for labor laws And healthcare being tied to "having a good enough job". But yea, it's a huge mess. | | |
| ▲ | amanaplanacanal 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Divorcing health care from employment would be a wonderful change, but I don't see it ever happening. Employers love it because it makes employees fear for their job, and insurers love it because if everybody saw how much they were actually paying every month they would fight to change the system. |
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| ▲ | jmyeet 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The world is bigger than the US. Also, not everybody in the US is an underpaid service worker with no benefits. Also, if you limit yourself to just the US, you're still just wrong [1]: > Approximately one-quarter (26%, n = 303/1169) of adults (aged 16–64 years) with self-reported ILI took time off work for their illness for a mean of 3.3 days, compared with 31% (n = 31/99) and 20% (n = 3/15) of those with confirmed influenza A or B, respectively, who reported missing a mean of 3.8 and 3.0 days. [1]: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9748403/ | | |
| ▲ | trvz 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | You've replied to the wrong comment. Anyway: taking time off work when too sick to work != isolating when the symptoms first appear. |
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| ▲ | gib444 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I swear there is an element of the virus that drives you out of isolation, to spread it?. It always goes like this with me, the first few days: - Hm, am I coming down with something? Not too sure. Feel a bit under the weather - I'm feeling great! Let's go shopping/for coffee/to the supermarket/see friends - OHH I definitely have flu |
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| ▲ | radu_floricica 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| 2, 3 and 4 apply to the hantavirus as well. |
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| ▲ | BLKNSLVR 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Just finished watching the last episode of season 2 with my daughter this morning. Now biting my nails for another 6-12 months awaiting season 3... Dammit. |
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| ▲ | rob_c 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| "no evidence of human to human transmission", was something repeated far too often and far too politically for me to take them serious on the next issue, serious or not. > "It would spread when the carrier was <LARGELY> asymptomatic" , the largely is very important here otherwise containment would have been a lot different. The main concerns for covid were also limited to a novel strain of a known virus type (again a KNOWN TYPE) being released into a global general populous with no inherent immunity. Aka expect ~5% of cases to probably have complications and some smaller %-age of that to be serious. If we didn't know what covid was we wouldn't be calling it "covid-19" to expressly describe which genus we're talking about. (Followed by general stupidity from people of pretending we don't know how other covid strains progress (regardless of any 'novel' effects)). Sill no sensible scenario put death rates >1% for anyone not in an at risk group. I mean everyone forgets the south-park sars skit that there's a 97% chance of catching that practically without symptoms. Why this became polarised about steam rolling through untested technology onto the populous is identical to the "green coal" and "tech will solve the carbon footprint" thinking... |
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| ▲ | thrownthatway 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
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| ▲ | soared 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | I’ll solve the second to last one for you! I know multiple people who had Covid, and very quickly died, of Covid. | | |
| ▲ | KetoManx64 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | How metabolically unhealthy were they? . | | |
| ▲ | amanaplanacanal 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Something like half the population in the US is "metabolically unhealthy". Hopefully the new weight loss drugs will fix some of this. | | |
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| ▲ | rob_c 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | again, personal experience != global facts, I'm sorry for your loss (I assume you liked those people, you don't say) but facts are facts. |
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