I am no-where near as concerned by this as I was a year ago, when I was expecting the axe to fall at any moment before the Chinese labs achieved some sort of escape velocity. I now think it's too late, all the cats are out of all the bags, there's no moat except maybe a temporal one of a few months, the genie is out of the bottle.

There is no secret sauce the US labs have that the Chinese ones don't, or won't have soon enough. Deepseek 4 and Kimi 2.5 are not quite Claude 4.5/GPT5.5 but there's no fundamental principle missing - they are strong evidence that there's no real advantage the "frontier" labs possess that isn't related to scale, which they will gain in time (if they even need to). The RL post-training techniques that work are widely known and easily copied. All Deepseek is really lacking is data, which they're getting - and the harder Anthropic/the USG makes it to access claude in china, the more of that precious data they'll get!

I used to sort of entertain the "fast take-off breakaway" scenario as being plausible but not really anymore. The only genuine moat the frontier labs have is their product take-up, which isn't nothing, far from it, but it's not some unbreakable technological wall. Too late guys - it might have been too late for quite some time.

No mention of open weights anywhere in the piece, which is weird. Qwen, Llama, DeepSeek are months behind frontier, not years. If you're a European startup worried about getting cut off from Anthropic's API in 2027, the real question is what the open-weight frontier looks like then. Probably pretty capable. That undercuts most of the doom scenario.

Also, he concedes Mythos-level capabilities will be cheap next year, then handwaves it with "you need the best AI, not good-enough AI." For most use cases, frontier minus six months is fine.

The more fundamental bottleneck is not even the frontier models, it's the datacenters. Let's say Europe breaks apart from the US completely tomorrow. It does not have enough datacenters (or GPUs in general) to sustain its inference needs even if it would resort to Chinese open models. And to build new datacenters, it would need to source parts from the US and China.

In other words, if AI does have continued significant economic impact, only the US and China would be able to leverage it completely. The rest of the world is implicitly betting that AI won't be good enough, or that eventually the compute curve flattens out so using a model that is 10x larger only leads to marginal benefits.

The distillation risk has been brewing for a while now. In a very real sense, the model is the data, so if the data is locked down because of how valuable it is, it was only a matter of time before fully open access to the models would be revoked.

There's also an additional economic concern that rarely gets mentioned: because no one has cracked continual learning, keeping models up-to-date and filling in gaps in performance requires retraining on an ever growing dataset. Granted, you aren't starting from scratch each time, but the scaling required just to stay relevant looks daunting.

I don't know where any this goes on a societal level, but I've believed since the release of deepseek r1 that access to frontier models would eventually be locked up behind contracts, since the only moats protecting the models themselves are purely artificial. It remains to be seen how effective China is at pushing the envelope, and whether they are interested in providing unfettered access. And on top of that, it remains to be seen how well these models actually turn out to scale in the long run.

The uncomfortable implication is that "AI sovereignty" may end up being less about training your own GPT-class model and more about securing compute, energy, datacenter security and contractual access

What's the likelihood that universities eventually become open model providers?

Instead of soon, how about just "now"?

I would imagine not single everyone on HN have enough disposable income that allow us to subscribe Claude Max or other similar max plan of other models without thinking.

Some people mentioned open weight model, but there are two hurdles. One the current economic mean securing the best hardware is already stupidly expensive compare to a year or two ago. And the open weight model lack the magic that Claude/Gemini/OpenAI put in the proprietary one, meaning one will have to create their own agent that is clever enough to search the internet when it knows its training data is stale.

The thing is, the open source models are are smart enough to do most work if the harness and orchestration is right. So even if the next gen model get locked behind monopoly pay walls build Real things in the real world and fight for a humane world

Quote:

> “The two AI superpowers are going to start talking. We’re going to set up a protocol in terms of how do we go forward with best practices for AI to make sure nonstate actors don’t get a hold of these models,” Bessent told Joe Kernen on Thursday, on the sidelines of President Donald Trump’s two-day meeting in Beijing with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/14/us-china-ai-rules-bessent-us...

OpenAI is already talking openly about gated access to their models (see this OpenAI podcast episode for example: https://openai.com/podcast/#oai-podcast-episode-16)

Separately there's also a very active effort to stop open weight releases.

It's dangerous to those who think access to frontier intelligence is important.

Considering the economic angle, one possible long term future is that access to frontier models is only realistic for the wealthiest 1% They will use this access to the ultra intelligent models to increase their wealth further. Inequality will continue to be negatively impacted

All the downsides of your cliched agi nightmares but with the “intelligence” of your bog standard national security functionary

Its worse than that - all AI features will get broken down into even finer slices and you will have to pay for everything based on the finest level of slice they can make and still make money.

DeepSeek is not a distillation of Claude or ChatGPT - stating this is just idiotic politics at this point.

The Chinese labs have reached "escape velocity" long ago - they will continue development regardless of API access to US models or the willingness of US labs to share their research.

I wonder if the countries that don't have "AI Sovereignty" end up being like what Japan is now, technologically. It's stuck in 90's/early 2000's tech and norms (i.e. left behind) but its infrastructure and society chugs along (the demographic problem is a separate issue).

Would that make those countries more attractive to young people perhaps? As a place to grow and learn skills where the opportunities are non-existent in the AI Sovereign countries.

So now AI is about apartheid. I am not liking this at all.

> And it doesn’t stop with the security questions: the Trump administration’s signature style of international engagement is to wield American leverage as a bundle. Deadlocks in trade negotiations are broken by threatening to withhold intelligence, tech deals are stalled by reference to food safety standards. And so I don’t know when a U.S. administration would choose to leverage its seemingly inevitable predeployment authority over frontier models to secure its broader interests, but I’m sure it would in due time. That means that even if we do everything ‘right’ on the security and economic side, frontier access is still fundamentally contingent as long as there’ll be divergences between governments’ strategic interests.

The Trump Administration telling the very neo-fascist oligarchs who bought him an election and bought him a ballroom to play nice with their toys? At the expense of rampant capitalism? Lol.

He already showed us the limit of his comprehension of the topic when he made EO 14179 limiting states from regulating AI.

Trump doesn't swing for perfect pitches. He is a madman, a lunatic, and a true moron. Do not give this man any credit. I would be shocked if he could tell you the time on an analog clock.

Damn. I predicted this last year and got thrashed for it.

Glad to see others catching on.

If Amodei and the co. were in charge the models would alert the police if someone said "boob" and the goys would only get GPT 2 level models, hell, even that might be too dangerous.