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johnfn 2 hours ago

Everyone wants to pin this on the Microsoft acquisition or incompetence but it seems pretty clear to me from the material GitHub has posted that AI has 10xed the amount of code being committed to GH, which has downstream effects everywhere - CI, Actions, code ingestion, everywhere. The author pins it on weird things like MS Copilot, which kind of feels like he’s listing off things he doesn’t like rather than casual favors. This is ignoring the 800 pound gorilla in the room.

einsteinx2 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

The graph in TFA shows the downtime pattern starting in January 2020. OpenAI released GPT-3.5 in November 2022 (basically December), and LLM/agentic coding didn’t really kick off in the way you’re describing until 2024, but really in 2025.

How can that explain the terrible uptime for the ~4 years post acquisition before all the AI stuff you’re talking about started?

johnfn an hour ago | parent | next [-]

The subjective experience I and others report is that GitHub feels to have gotten significantly worse over the last few months. If you look at the month over month view of "Uptime history" in the cited link[1], it confirms this: it's been sub-90 (even sub-80 last month) essentially since the start of this year (i.e. when GitHub says that commit activity 10xed). Go back even a year and it's all in the high 9s.

I honestly can't explain the discrepancy between the graph in the article and the month over month stats on the same page, but the latter tracks both to my own subjective experience of GitHub and their own internal metrics.

[1]: https://mrshu.github.io/github-statuses/

chilmers 9 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The graph is not accurate, because GitHub's historical downtime data is not accurate.

For example, here is a Hacker News story about GitHub being down on July 28th 2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12178449

Here's GitHub's historical uptime graph (on which this chart is based), saying there was no recorded downtime that day, or in fact that entire month: https://www.githubstatus.com/uptime?page=40

silverwind an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

I think it's just a case of brain drain, followed by reckless AI adoption which both drove the quality down.

aliasxneo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yeah, I had the exact same response after reading the post. I mean, I'm all for jumping on the Microsoft hate train, but not if it misses the elephant in the room. Let's say the _perfect_ GitHub replacement spawns tomorrow? What's preventing the same infrastructure challenges of millions of lines of AI-generated code destroying it?

I think centralized code hosting is pretty much going to get killed by AI. Just like it's doing to social media.

einsteinx2 an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> I mean, I'm all for jumping on the Microsoft hate train, but not if it misses the elephant in the room.

That elephant didn’t even exist yet for the first few years of poor uptime shown in the graph in TFA… I don’t really disagree if we’re talking about the recent uptime issues, but how does that explain the years 2020-2023?

aliasxneo an hour ago | parent [-]

It doesn't. It just means if they were having problems before, they've now been made significantly worse by AI (on the free tier). All I'm saying is that the problem is bigger than, "Microsoft sucks."

majormajor 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I think centralized code hosting is pretty much going to get killed by AI. Just like it's doing to social media.

Private corporate codebases are a poor fit for GH because they don't benefit from public social graph effects. And the typical codebase isn't so large as to be technically challenging to deal with with OSS tools. I'd guess they make up a substantial share of revenue.

But once the reliability is called into question, self-hosted or smaller alternatives start to look good. Although there's some trickiness there if you want to be super cautious about making sure you can get to your code+infra in case of a vendor incident, especially if you're cloud based.

kyrra 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Saas code hosting seems to be the problem here. If companies self hosted, they could deal with the scaling problems themselves.

logicchains 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>What's preventing the same infrastructure challenges of millions of lines of AI-generated code destroying it?

There's something called "rate limits" that engineers not working for GitHub have probably heard of; it's this crazy idea that you should limit the load on your infra in order to avoid downtime. GitHub is not the first free service to ever have to deal with bots.

bdangubic 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

of all the awful things AI is doing and will be doing to society, killing centralized code hosting and social media will be its shinniest moments, both deserve to die painful deaths

idiotsecant 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, the terrible sin of ... Hosting code where people can find it

icase 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

hosting code where people can find it is the reason LLMs can write code, so we kind of screwed ourselves there…

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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exe34 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How did people do it before github? Did everyone write everything with peek and poke?

kuboble an hour ago | parent | next [-]

Private people would keep their code locally and share the snapshot of the code using any file sharing or hosting option available.

Companies had been hosting their own CVS or later svn servers.

doubled112 an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Sourceforge

ako 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why is centralized code hosting getting killed? I'm running an opensource project, >99% of the code is AI generated, could not do this without GitHub. Ai generated source code needs a place where AIs and people can collaborate. I'm expecting GitHub to be hugely successful, but mostly for an AI audience.

chowells 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Because it's centralized. Your project pays the price for every unrelated project that's getting overloaded.

ako 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I'm sure the underlying infra is not a single server, so this is mostly a period where they have to adapt to higher loads due to AI becoming actually useable in the last 8 months. It's basically proof how well AI works these days. Give it a few months so they can scale and it'll get better. Remember Twitter fail whale? Growth pains that can and will be solved.

georgemcbay an hour ago | parent [-]

> It's basically proof how well AI works these days. Give it a few months so they can scale and it'll get better. Remember Twitter fail whale? Growth pains that can and will be solved.

GitHub's problems can technically be solved, but that doesn't mean they can be solved in a way where the economics still work out.

If AI use is 10x-ing the amount of infrastructure costs for GitHub but not 10x-ing the amount of money Microsoft brings in from GitHub then there is certainly no guarantee they will bother to solve these issues adequately.

And I'd be shocked if the revenue side of things isn't lagging way behind the extra usage post-AI-era, both because a lot of the new use is probably on the GitHub free tier, and because even on the paid tier most usage (other than CI/Actions, AFAIK) are on a fixed subscription cost per user regardless of how much you are slamming their servers and it is unclear how much they can raise that price without current enterprise users fleeing.

Twitter had a clearer goal that aligned with the financials... support more people stably, show more ads. Things are less clear with GitHub's business model where the free tier is a loss leader for the paid tier but the expansion in usage is likely to balloon the free tier usage at a far faster rate than the paid tier usage.

Also (and this part is admittedly far more speculative) if AI labs are to be believed this is still early days for AI usage and we'll still see massive usage growth over the next few years. If GitHub is already having existential trouble at the beginning of the curve, what hope do they have to scale up with their current business model if AI usage actually does ramp up exponentially?

ako 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

Yah, the monitization bit is challanging. I'll ask my agent to click some of the ads GitHub serves it ;-)

But getting this infrastructure right is crucial for a future where most of the code is AI generated. GitHub puts microsoft in a good position to experiment and learn how to optimize GitHub (enterprise) for the future.

Nate b Jones on youtube, https://youtu.be/FDkvRl1RlT0?si=AEYlUchm_oalMSzf, argues that Atlassian might be an interesting acquisition for Anthropic, as it provide most of the context AI at enterprises need. When executed well, GitHub enterprise, can offer microsoft the same value: the context AI needs in the future.

hirako2000 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

GitHub hasn't changed in any positive way since the acquisition. A decade is a long time, it tells.

GitHub action, co pilot. Oh and that ugly AI search I'm unable to disable. Migration to azure.

Yes Microsoft managed to ruin the network effect. Outages? The straw that broke the camel's back.

madeofpalk 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

3 months post Microsoft acquisition, GitHub expanded the free plan to include unlimited private repos.

The next year they removed the limitation on collaborators on private repos for free users.

In the last 4 years they’ve significantly improved their project management tools. I think a lot of teams can make do with GitHub Projects, they’re pretty decent.

Who knows if any of these are directly because of Microsoft or not. But there has naturally been material improvements to GitHub in the years after being bought by Microsoft.

politelemon 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> GitHub hasn't changed in any positive way since the acquisition.

It's more like any positive actions they have had are being outright dismissed or forgotten. They removed several restrictions that Github had over private accounts, as well as github actions. Aside from the downtimes, the Github of today is fantastic compared to pre-acquisition Github.

ako 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm loving it, running an opensource project mostly AI generated, i don't have to think about version control, building and testing my app, running AI code review, hosting my docs website, API and cli to enable Claude Code to interact with everything, etc.

It provides huge value for anyone running an opensource AI generated project.

Pay08 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

How on earth is Actions a downside?

prerok 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I think they meant all the security holes that have been popping up and that there is no interest from Microsoft to fix them.

ExoticPearTree 43 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I like to think that Microsoft is trying to run GitHub in Windows in their Azure cloud. And on the fact that every time GitHub is down I think of "someone updated the Windows Servers GH runs on and had to reboot everything".

While I'm 99% sure it is not true, it makes me sleep better at night. And giggle a little when it goes down.

QuercusMax 38 minutes ago | parent [-]

They definitely do something with Azure. Stuff related to GitHub action runs hosted on something.windows.net, which I believe is azure.

dwroberts 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Even if this is true: Microsoft own an entire cloud platform. They have enormous codebases of their own and they employ ~200k people. It’s just not an excuse, especially because they consciously made decisions such as e.g. private repositories being free

hackton an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If that's the case, we should also see the exact same pattern on Gitlab, Bitbucket, etc. Do we?

stusmall an hour ago | parent | next [-]

GitHub has been basically the default for free public git hosting for a long time. I was curious what bitbucket has and it looks like the free tier is so limited, I can't imagine a lot of people hosting vibe coded open source there.

fontain an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

10x of nothing is nothing.

spiderfarmer an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

What is easier to 10x? A tent or a flat?

veryfancy 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I’m with you here. Further: Even though I disagree with it, “GitHub down, Microsoft bad” is a defensible take, but we’ve seen it ad nauseam at this point.

delusional 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This would make sense if GitHub themselves cited increased traffic or load shedding as their root cause, but most of their incidents from the last month seems to cite misconfigured infrastructure or operational mistakes.

rvz 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Github had lots of outages even before AI was introduced.

senko 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The 800 pound gorilla in the room being a $3T company that also happens to be one of the largest cloud providers?

C'mon.

2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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gverrilla an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

We want to thank you for your heroic service in our defense, sir. We really need people like you who know in what side they're at.

Microsoft investors