From TFA:

“ChatGPT came up with an idea which is original and clever. It is the sort of idea I would be very proud to come up with after a week or two of pondering, and it took ChatGPT less than an hour to find and prove”

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SlinkyOnStairs an hour ago | parent [-]

You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Reasoning/Agentic systems aren't better.

I'm saying they're not an advancement in the tech in the way GPT 1 through 3 were. They're a different kind of improvement.

And as such the rate improvement cannot just be extrapolated into the future.

	▲	p1esk 35 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		GPT1 through GPT3 advancement were exactly like using more Ethernet cables in parallel. All interesting conceptual breakthroughs came after GPT3: RL and reasoning being the main ones.