You misunderstand. I'm not saying that Reasoning/Agentic systems aren't better.

I'm saying they're not an advancement in the tech in the way GPT 1 through 3 were. They're a different kind of improvement.

And as such the rate improvement cannot just be extrapolated into the future.

GPT1 through GPT3 advancement were exactly like using more Ethernet cables in parallel.

All interesting conceptual breakthroughs came after GPT3: RL and reasoning being the main ones.