| ▲ | xbmcuser 7 hours ago |
| 10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction. |
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| ▲ | ahartmetz 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| At current prices, Chinese companies could even produce everything possible (~anything but current gen CPUs and GPUs) on slightly older nodes and make a stonking profit while lowering market prices. |
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| ▲ | Gathering6678 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | China is also short on supply... Capex for these are planned years ahead and just not flexible enough to deal with the supply squeeze right now. | | |
| ▲ | ahartmetz 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | China is famously fast at building things, but maybe not semiconductor factories... especially with long lead times from Western suppliers. |
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| ▲ | 2ndorderthought 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It would unfortunately be considered contraband in the US or tariffed 500% | | |
| ▲ | ahartmetz 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If only the rest of the world could buy it, it would probably work almost as well (edit: to lower prices in the US). Besides, I'm in the rest of the world ;) | |
| ▲ | donmcronald 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It'll be the same for Canada. We're already seeing satanic panic style action against things like TP-Link networking equipment and Hikvision cameras. Funny how those are a couple of the brands that can run 100% locally without a connection to the internet. |
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| ▲ | tetris11 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing. |
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| ▲ | armchairhacker 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Hobbyist equipment is still relatively cheap. You can get previous-gen hardware for formerly current-gen prices, you can run lots of “hobbyist” software on low RAM and no GPU. It’s bad, but it’s not “literally own nothing”. | | |
| ▲ | MostlyStable 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Yeah, I'm not sure that fewer people will own computers, I do think people will shift to much longer upgrade cycles. | | |
| ▲ | serf 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | it just depends on how you define computer. people will own an increasing number of dumb terminals connected to rented services. does that reduce the number of computers? well, no.. so, imo : the trick isn't to reduce physical ownership of devices, the trick is to make it so that you need Big Iron in order to do anything. One way that might be achieved is by forming social and cultural dependence on models so large that no one individual could possibly run them... |
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| ▲ | jauntywundrkind 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The second hand market is going to have much much more lag. But it's very unclear that this is going to sustain indefinitely. |
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| ▲ | asdfasgasdgasdg 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Who cares if Qualcomm owns Arduino. It has never been cheaper to get into embedded computing. You can buy Arduino-compatible STM32 Nucleo boards straight from STMicroelectronics for $15-20, and that's first party. If you're willing to buy third party clones there are boards on AliExpress for $10 or less. | | |
| ▲ | Tepix 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Most things were cheaper last year. But you can still get RP2049 Zero for less than a buck each and run FUZIX. Neat. |
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| ▲ | jmclnx 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Tin foil hat :) But in a way I do agree with you, I doubt it is as organized as you imply. Yes, companies and governments do not way anyone on a General Computing Device at all. They want to see exactly what content you are viewing and responding to. Microsoft and Apple have been slowly adding various forms of spyware and locking down what applications you can use. And Cell Phones ? Those are the Holy Grail of what Microsoft and Apple want to move your Laptop/PC to. Right now Linux and BSD are the only games in town for non-spyware systems. But the new Age Verification Laws seems to be a first attempt to lock-down even Linux :( Since the Linux Foundation is owned by large corporations, I feel that will succeed. For the BSDs ? Right now seems they are flying under the radar. | | |
| ▲ | ButyTh0 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Why do you doubt this when the rich also have Signal? They meet and talk out of view? The insider trading coming out of Washington? Why when emails from discovery in labor disputes between google and apple in the 2010s revealed they engage in exactly the sort of manipulation you disbelieve? |
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| ▲ | 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | varispeed 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [dead] | |
| ▲ | ButyTh0 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Because they own nothing but make believe stocks and life works great for them. The mega-rich are 100% decoupled from physical reality. May as well treat them more like tribal shaman, priests, preachers, and rabbis. Just parroting memes the likewise idiot politicians believe are the magic chants that keep gravity itself pulling together the Earth. "Omg he said the thing! Cut his taxes! Give him welfare!" Our generation of leaders were raised in a pre-science and information as world. They rely entirely in cult of personality as their meat suit never sees itself engage in the labor it relies on to live. It's well aware intuitively how fucked it is. Must continue to stand in the pulpit! | | |
| ▲ | GolfPopper 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >May as well treat them more like tribal shaman, priests, preachers, and rabbis. Why associate them with roles that have a degree of positive association and human connection? Treating them as faeries, vampires, or demons seems more accurate. | | |
| ▲ | ButyTh0 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Bold claim given all the hate out there for covering up Christian leaders diddling kids, slaughter of Palestinian kids for not being Israeli Jews, and the beheadings and assassinations coming out of Muslim-landia over trite offenses. I think you conflate informed consent with "brainwashed as children into fealty via allegory of the end times, and threats of violence if they don't comply." | |
| ▲ | fzeroracer 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I think treating them as the fae, vampire or demons is sort of insulting. Those creatures are at least bound by supernatural laws and can be negotiated with in some way. |
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| ▲ | vkou 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Nah. The first two thirds of the 20th century was the science and information world. Man gained mastery of the skies, the depths of the sea, the void of space, the atom. We were taming diseases and found a way to end hunger. We started building thinking machines. We were playing with the fire of the gods. Science was working miracles on the daily. It still is, but nobody gives a shit anymore, we are in the financialization and rent-seeker world now. Now we are just playing with fire. | | | |
| ▲ | ericd 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Why is it that new accounts these days always seem to come out swinging about politics, class warfare, etc? | | |
| ▲ | donmcronald 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It might just be frustrated young people. They're getting squeezed real hard by a system that was set up to put them on an impossible trajectory before they were even born. You can see the divide everywhere. People with lots of money think supply and demand, congestion pricing, etc. are great tools because it doesn't impact them at all compared to people on the bottom. Those are only good solutions if you're not the one falling off the bottom rung of the ladder. Is it really shocking that people are upset to see the supply of resources being cornered and hoarded by the ultra rich with the most likely outcome being the only way to get access to those goods will be to pay forever? The possibility of AI becoming a must-have knowledge repository or memory assistant is scary if you couple it with the idea of never being able to own it. How much is your memory worth? What if you can't compete in terms of productivity without having access to AI? What about the people that can't afford the "first month of rent"? People come in and make angry posts like the GP because they know they're getting disenfranchised and don't have the power to do anything to change it. | | |
| ▲ | ericd 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think it’s probably mostly what your sibling comment said, it’s very cheap to sow division and discord now. I get what you’re saying, and there definitely are people who are angry about the US slipping, and standards of living reverting to the mean a bit, and looking to blame someone. The True Believer came out in the aftermath of WW2 and tried to analyze why it happened, and laid out that the most dangerous group of people aren’t the ones who’ve been poor for a long time, but those who were recently poor, who remembered a more prosperous time. Those people get tremendously angry about it, and represent fertile ground for politicians and motivated groups to plant the seeds of hate. People need to have some perspective. You’re not permanently locked out of useful AI models, it’s within reach of most who can save a bit to go get a pair of used 3090s on eBay and run some pretty useful models. | | |
| ▲ | ButyTh0 5 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | You are people and I agree you need perspective. You wave off systemic issues as no big deal and discuss the potential of a 3090 graphics card. Tell us you're a privileged first worlder without telling us... That you refuse to discuss solutions to political problems impacting a lot of people who, in our society are off the hook for you too, you're deciding to take the risk your own life doesn't vanish. You're not relevant to others. Americans lack of political action to ensure a safety net exists for everyone just leaves everyone indifferent should you too end up giving blow jobs behind a Burger King for a portion of kids meal someone threw out a car window should it come to that for you. So go ahead and pretend reality doesn't exist outside your own experience, little Dark Triad. But if you end penniless in the gutter, you'll only have yourself to blame | |
| ▲ | donmcronald an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The True Believer came out in the aftermath of WW2 and tried to analyze why it happened, and laid out that the most dangerous group of people aren’t the ones who’ve been poor for a long time, but those who were recently poor, who remembered a more prosperous time. Is it just people trying to sow division when you're potentially describing an entire upcoming generation? > People need to have some perspective. You’re not permanently locked out of useful AI models, it’s within reach of most who can save a bit to go get a pair of used 3090s on eBay and run some pretty useful models. I don’t agree. The current generation of young people can’t afford housing and education without taking on decades of debt. Buying a pair of 3090s for local AI isn’t even on the radar. Even if they could, it’s unlikely they’d be able to make productive use of them. The big AI companies haven’t even scraped the surface when it comes to memory, specialized knowledge, etc.. I see people downvoted my comment and I’m not sure why. I’m not trying to pile on to create drama. I’m trying to explain there’s a growing cohort of people that have a right to be angry because they’re watching global productivity increase as their standard of living is decreasing. Who wouldn’t be upset? The dangerous part is that people angry about it are easy to sway with propaganda. It’s not the billionaire families colluding to fix food prices, which happened with bread in Canada, it’s the “insert another marginalized group here” that’s causing the problem. |
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| ▲ | t-3 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | AI-fueled agitprop campaigns. | |
| ▲ | 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | [deleted] |
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| ▲ | sokoloff 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| After the recent run-up, where are prices on a per-performance basis? Back to 2019? Computers were incredibly more expensive when I was growing up. People bought them anyway. Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price normal people out, IMO. |
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| ▲ | donmcronald 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price normal people out, IMO. Maybe it's different in the US. In Canada, the median income for 25-54 years old was just under $60k / year in 2024. When you're talking about a $3k USD computer, it's pushing 10% or more of the median after tax income. My gut reaction to that is that most people don't even end up with that much disposable income in total, let alone for a single purchase. HN is skewed with people way at the top end of income earners, especially on a global scale. Imagine getting $30k / year to spend on everything you need and then consider how much $3k on a computer is. My dad had to take a loan to buy our first computer. Who wants that? It's dumbfounding to see the number of people cheering on backwards progress where we end up where we were 3+ decades ago. | | |
| ▲ | sokoloff 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | > When you're talking about a $3k USD computer, it's pushing 10% or more of the median after tax income. If it lasts for 10 years, it's more like 1% of the after tax income of a median individual earner over that period. I think a computer is clearly valuable enough that people will entirely rationally spend 1% of their income on it if that's what it costs. (I'm not "cheering it on"; I'm just observing and predicting that lots of normal people will still buy computers.) | | |
| ▲ | BobbyJo 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Computers really aren't that valuable to the average person who already has a smart phone. For everyone else, many probably have a work issued computer, and don't need one at home.
The market for high end home hardware is really only gamers and tech workers, and gamers will fall back to closed hardware fast if price/perf pushed them to do it. A big reason PC gaming thrived 2010-2020 was PCs were better on a price/perf basis. |
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| ▲ | AshleyGrant 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think your idea of what "normal people" can afford is a bit off. Normal people aren't buying $1500 computers. And they definitely aren't buying $3000 computers. | | |
| ▲ | sokoloff 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | An 4K Apple ][ cost the equivalent of around $7K when released. A C64 cost the equivalent of around $2K when released. Both were fairly popular and vastly less useful than a computer today. If the cheapest useful computer ends up costing $3K, it will still be purchased and will still be worth it at around $1/day of useful life. | | |
| ▲ | iamjackg 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The C64 sold "between 12.5 and 17 million units" in its lifetime [0], vs. worldwide PC shipments of "71.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025." (emphasis mine) [1] It's truly an apples (hehe) to oranges comparison, and in my opinion it only reinforces the point that "normal people" will no longer be able to purchase computers, just like the C64 was not a mainstream product. [0] https://web.archive.org/web/20160306232450/http://www.pageta...
[1] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-1-20... | | |
| ▲ | sokoloff 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > "normal people" will no longer be able to purchase computers, Starbucks' revenue was almost $10B in the last quarter. Most people can clearly afford $1/day for something as useful as a computer. | | |
| ▲ | iamjackg 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | That seems like a false equivalence to me, even if we ignore the fact that only 21% of that revenue came from non-US countries. There are enormous chunks of the world where the local equivalent of $1500 is a life-changing amount of money. |
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| ▲ | deathanatos 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It was nice, in the 90s and 00s when computing hardware's cost was just falling so rapidly. I think it was like what, 1.5x "stuff" each year? Like RAM going 1.5x bigger every 12 months, CPU frequencies increased by that much. Per-unit prices were falling. Now, per unit costs is rising faster than inflation. The WD HDD I bought in 2017 for $65 real ($49 nominal) is now $95 real, 50% more expensive after inflation. Trust me when I say my income has not increased by 50% post-inflation since then! (Also … I really should not have checked that number. Needless to say, it's not positive.) |
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| ▲ | marshray 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I just looked at some low-end NAS-oriented HDDs. The cost $/TB is 2x similar ones I bought 5 years ago. That has never before happened in the history of computing, and it violates long-held, fundamental assumptions. | | |
| ▲ | abanana 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | It happened in 2011 when massive flooding in Thailand stopped a huge chunk of global production. Hard drive prices pretty much doubled overnight. | | |
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| ▲ | cogman10 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| And currently the US government is actively trying to ban chinese hardware from the consumer market [1]. So gonna be real fun. Maybe we'll get a chinese hardware black market. [1] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat... |