Yes, I actually have farming experience. Farmers aren't naive about this stuff. They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable. Newly planted fruit trees will generally start producing within a few years and output increases as the trees grow, then eventually levels off and declines as they age. A tree is just another capital asset with a limited lifespan. Much ado about nothing.

▲

cogman10 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Ok, then I'll just reissue my 2 questions

> If that were the case, then why are there so many peach trees currently? Why hasn't the entire orchard been replaced with olive trees?

I agree, that farmers forecast and switch up crops. But I disagree with you that you have a bunch of farmers that have mixed orchards setup because of that forecasting. It's not like wheat or barely where you could switch between the two even mid year if you were crazy enough.

I'd also point out that the first fruiting isn't exactly a bumper crop. It takes several more years after that first fruiting before you get to the point where a tree is fully productive.

▲

nradov 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

You're not making any sense. I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards. Some farmers have too many peach trees right now because Del Monte got their forecasts wrong so now those farmers will chop down the peach trees and probably plant something else. Olive oil demand is still trending up so that might be a possibility in some cases, there are lots of options. That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off.

▲

cogman10 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> I never claimed that a bunch of farmers have mixed orchards.

You claimed

> Every year farmers cut down a bunch of trees and plant new ones in response to costs and market demand.

What do you mean responding to "costs and market demand"?

You also claimed

> They forecast future trends as best they can and will replace trees (or other crops) when it seems profitable.

Both those statements would imply that you have orchard farmers who are growing and harvesting multiple types of crops. Unless you are trying to say that it's common for a fruit farmer to completely destroy an orchards and replace with with a new crop.

Both, frankly, are ridiculous claims which are quickly dispatched with "Why aren't there more olive trees".

If the reaction to market forces was that fast, the expectation is that last 10 years of raised olive prices would have caused a lot of these farmers to uproot and plant olive trees. It's currently a very lucrative crop and California is certainly amenable to growing olives.

> That's just how farming works: you have to place your bets and then work for years to see if they pay off.

I agree with this statement. Farming is a game of placing bets on the future of the market. But I disagree that orchard farmers are commonly just diving head first into switching crops in any sort of fashion. It takes a severe event, like their primary distributor going bankrupt, to move an orchard farmer towards new crops. That is not common or business as usual.

▲

nradov 3 hours ago | parent [-]

You're still not making any sense. If you drew some sort of implication about mixed orchards then you really need to work on basic reading comprehension.

	▲	cogman10 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Then explain what you meant. I contend this is not "routine and seldom makes the news." and I back that up by claiming that it's uncommon for orchard farmers to change crops. What part of that doesn't make sense?

▲

mvdtnz 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Did you not read the linked article? There are so many peach trees because the farmers were contracted to grow and sell the peaches to Del Monte.

New orchards of various crops are planted every day, I don't know why you think this doesn't happen in the modern age.