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| ▲ | IG_Semmelweiss 30 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Could it be the incoming "strongest of all time" [1] el nino weather pattern that is expected this year with high probability ? Usually it is only the eastern pacific is mostly severely impacted, but maybe there's a correlation [1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/apr/23/down-to-... | |
| ▲ | lysace 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Anecdotes like that with a 1 year horizon.. that's what we call weather. A 1,200 year time series.. that's definitely in the climate area. | | |
| ▲ | billfor 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | If you go back a few million, that's also climate. We're still in an ice age.
https://www.climate.gov/media/16817 | | |
| ▲ | crowbahr 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | And human civilization entirely sprung up during it, all of our nations, our cities, our pastures, our lives are built on the ice age. We need to start cooling the world down and we're doing the opposite | |
| ▲ | altcognito 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Longer periods can be called paleoclimate. As you may have noticed, most types of humans did not exist in previous climates, and we are unfamiliar with the conditions of those time periods, much less if we were to bring them upon ourselves in a period of time that isn't even capable of being shown on the chart you've chosen to use. | | |
| ▲ | billfor 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I'm just clarifying parent comment that "1200 years of data is climate" by saying that longer periods also are climate data. I could have posted a graph of the holocene as well (I don't know that it would materially change my point).
I made two points. The other was that we are in an ice age. | | |
| ▲ | kurthr 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Normally, discussions of climate refer to the last 12k year interglacial period as having come out of an "ice age". You're using the broader geologic term referring to any presence of any polar ice cap as an "ice age", which would cover the last 3 Million years. So what you're saying is that in the 300k years homo sapiens have never existed outside of an "ice age" and that the our speciation (eg in savannahs of Africa) was driven by the many glaciations of this current Ice Age? Even homo habilis hasn't been around that long. That's saying that since the continents and earth's currents haven't changed, we're in the same age, AMOC is a minor technicality, and the oceans would need to rise to the straight of Panama to be significant. | |
| ▲ | Retric 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | No, climate is based on consistent weather data over a long period. Across long enough periods the underlying assumptions that make climate a meaningful thing to talk about fail due to orbital mechanics etc. Plate tectonics for example shows you can’t even assume an area’s latitude is consistent, just look at the fossil history of Antarctica. Humans have dumped so much carbon and methane in the atmosphere even 100 years ago was quite different. | |
| ▲ | wk_end 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It very much reads like you feel like you need to offer those particular points here to try to diminish concerns about global warming informed by the 1200 year Kyoto cherry blossom record. Is that not the case? | | |
| ▲ | billfor 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes I am diminishing the case of global warming about the tree. The tree they kept records of 1200 years ago is not the cultivated one seen in many parks now. That tree is about a million years old. Article just says "Kyoto’s cherry trees", which would include the old and new ones. Importantly, the new cultivated ones bloom earlier. This could be a case of trying to make a climate argument, when the underlying data is more nuanced. Maybe we should just say it's nice the trees are blooming earlier. |
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| ▲ | chiefalchemist 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | My understanding is three-fold - The climate has *always* changed. It’s been warmer. And yes, it’s been cooler. There is nothing abnormal about the climate changing. - There is actually very little scientific proof that the current up tick, is human-made. Yes, there’s correlation with the Industrial Revolution, but that’s all it is atm, correlation. There’s little verifiable proof. It’s speculative. It’s a theory. Yes, there’s overwhelming consensus, but that’s still doesn’t make it fact. And consensus has been off target plenty of times in the past. - “The science” isn’t always as fact / truth based as it would like us to believe. Scientists are human too. Egos, career aspirations, groupthink, jealousy, etc. The scientific method is a stunning standard. Unfortunately, it’s implemented / executed by humans, flawed humans. There’s three sources exemplify #3, of course there are others. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-has-there-been-so-littl... https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/09/dinosau... https://longevity.stanford.edu/how-the-sugar-industry-shifte... | | |
| ▲ | wk_end 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | While the climate has always changed and there's nothing abnormal about that, it has never, ever changed anywhere near so radically in such a short period of time; the rate is what's abnormal. XKCD has a fantastic visualization of this: https://xkcd.com/1732/ So pair that with the correlation with the Industrial Revolution/increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, and with the verifiable scientific fact that carbon dioxide works to trap heat...and surely you can at least see why there's overwhelming consensus, right? What would compel you to operate as though this isn't the most likely explanation for the unprecedented rate of warming we're seeing? | | |
| ▲ | vidarh 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | We better hope we're the cause of the warming, because then we conversely have a shot at slowing it or stopping it. If we are incapable of causing a change of this magnitude, then the actions we are taking to slow the change would likely be ineffective too, in which cause coming generations are in for a world of hurt. As such, it always strikes me as bizarre when people question human contribution to climate change without by extension freaking out far more about the urgency of taking drastic action. | | |
| ▲ | chiefalchemist 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Look at the climate record, what leads you to believe this isn’t natural and we should have a chance to “reverse” it. | | |
| ▲ | wk_end an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | In this very thread, two posts up, the direct parent of the comment you're replying to, I gave you a link to a visualization of the climate record and asked you to look at it, and pointed out that the sudden and unprecedented rapid rate of change since the Industrial Revolution is precisely what leads us to believe this isn't natural. You responded by insisting (without evidence) that "the climate record over the looooong term simply is not that accurate". And now here you are telling someone else to "look at the climate record", the climate record that shows precisely what they're saying, the very same climate record you cast dispersions on moments ago, hoping to somehow trick them into not believing their own lying eyes. You're not operating in good faith. | |
| ▲ | Johnny555 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's almost certainly caused by man as all of the evidence suggests that it is. But if it's not, that's a much more serious problem since if it's some unknown natural phenomena we probably can't do anything to stop or slow it from happening and we don't know how hot it will get or how quickly. Maybe humans have triggered a yet to be discovered tipping point and there's no stopping it. Some reports are already saying that global warming is progressing faster than predicted... maybe we're on an exponential slope to higher temperatures and don't know it yet. |
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| ▲ | at-fates-hands 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >> then the actions we are taking to slow the change would likely be ineffective too. Many countries are taking steps which are mitigated by many developing countries who rely on cheap energy to grow and build out of their third world status. So yes, on the one hand a lot of countries are doing something but will it ever be enough to counter other countries continuing to pollute at unprecedented levels? I don't know. |
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| ▲ | chiefalchemist 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Simple enough… share links to the science that thoroughly proves what you’re saying. “Al Gore said it, it must be true,” isn’t going to cut it. As for the “never ever”, that’s another assumption. The climate record over the looooong term simply is not that accurate. Of course, there is a fair amount of correlation and circumstantial evidence, but parroting that as absolute fact and causation does make it scientific. There is a lot of “telephone” on this issue. Those using hundreds of years or even thousands should be met with skepticism. To clarify: I agree 100% that the climate is changing. It always have. Unfortunately, the rabbit hole of proof is not that deep. Most of “proof” is based on consensus and groupthink dictated by “the experts.” | | |
| ▲ | BLKNSLVR 4 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | "the experts" You mean those who have dedicated their careers to learning the science and studying the various evidence and using that as a base of reference? Who would you cite otherwise? Those providing the alternate view to "the experts" all seem to be seriously lacking in any related qualifications. Politicians, radio personalities, fossil fuel industry lobbyists, marketers, advertising executives. They're all pundits, they're not experts, they literally don't know what they're talking about. If you believe everything, or even most things, those various groups tell you, well, I'm not sure how to help. | |
| ▲ | wk_end an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > To clarify: I agree 100% that the climate is changing. It always have [sic]. Did anything I said imply that I didn't recognize that? There's no need for you to clarify, I was very clear myself that I was responding to your lack of understanding about the nature of the changing climate. The XKCD comic I already linked shows you the climate record for the past 22000 years; you can see with your own eyes that the rate of change since we began burning hydrocarbons on an industrial scale, particularly since the year 2000, has been precipitous and looks like nothing that's happened in the entire history of humanity as depicted. Maybe you missed it - it's a little subtle - but the comic already lists its sources on the side. At a high level, they determine the climate record by examining things like tree rings and ice cores; if you're curious, those sources are happy to explain their methodology in detail. Beyond that, do you have a specific reason for casting doubt on those sources? So let's see - going back to my comment, I pointed out the climate appears to be warming up faster than ever before; I (well, XKCD) has given you sources for that. You yourself acknowledged that there was a correlation between the warming climate and the Industrial Revolution, but I suppose we need a source for the correlated rise in carbon dioxide. Here's a graph from climate.gov using data from NOAA, ETHZ, Our World In Data, and the Global Carbon Project. If you visit each of those sources (which are linked to from the graph) you can then drill down and how they themselves synthesized it (as we know, that's how science works). https://www.climate.gov/media/12990 Finally, I guess I asserted that carbon dioxide traps heat. Here's a paper from 1856, where a simple experiment demonstrates the effect: https://www.risorsa-acqua.it/PDF/eunicefoote.pdf So at this point we have evidence of a phenomenon (the planet suddenly warming much faster than before, per the XKCD visualization and its sources) and we have a demonstrable mechanism (the warming effect of carbon dioxide, per Eunice Foote's experiments circa the mid-19th century) matching our data (the increase in carbon dioxide, per NOAA and ETHZ and Our World In Data and the Global Carbon Project) that solidly explains it. That looks like science to me. Further skepticism without any contradictory evidence and you're just getting into poor epistemology frankly, and I'll just have to start throwing around metascientific ideas like Occam's razor and Russell's teapot and post-critical logic. You keep demanding more "science", but what does that actually look like to you? You look at the entire scientific community (who you scare quote as "the experts") and their body of work and mindlessly dismiss it for not being "scientific" enough. It's a rhetorical feint, not genuine intellectual curiosity. To be honest with you, I haven't even seen An Inconvenient Truth myself. Have you? Does Al Gore just come on-screen and assert things, or does he give explanations for you to ignore? Sources for you to ignore? If my tone is short, it's because it's both frustrating and amusing to be treated with such airs of intellectual condescension when at this point the evidence and consensus for anthropogenic climate change is so strong. When everyone who's devoted their life to understanding something says you're wrong - even if you think you may actually be right! - it'd probably be better to argue from a position of humility, because the odds are very good that you are in fact wrong. As Carl Sagan said: they laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown. A few years ago I was walking through Queen's Park in Toronto and saw a Flat Earther accost people with the same sort of arrogance. Most laypeople walking through the park on a sunny weekend afternoon, it turns out, couldn't tell you off the top of their head about how we know that the Earth is round; whereas Flat Earthers performing a stunt are more than prepared to tell you why they know that the Earth really is flat. And I guess there's something valuable about court jesters making people aware of how much common sense they take for granted, but that doesn't make them any less worthy of ridicule. | |
| ▲ | anonymous_user9 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If anyone were to share a link, you'd doubtless say it isn't thorough enough. Can you give any thorough scientific evidence as to why we should consider this unprecedentedly fast change normal? |
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| ▲ | tardedmeme 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Apparently humans can't survive outside of an ice age, then. Maybe we shouldn't end it prematurely. | | |
| ▲ | tbrownaw 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Have we ever actually tried? | | |
| ▲ | guizadillas 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I actually live in a city that usually gets over 50 degrees Celsius for weeks and we pay a LOT on energy just to keep the A/C on. I don't think it is sustainable for the whole world and I'm afraid of what will happen here once we reach higher temps. | |
| ▲ | tardedmeme 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes. You can try right now, in the Sahara desert | | |
| ▲ | red369 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Central Europe looks like it would have been lovely! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Last_Interglacial#/media/File:... The linked picture is just an artist's interpretation, not a photo, and I assume you were mostly joking too. I think we agree that it's not a good idea to hurry in warming the planet. | |
| ▲ | tbrownaw 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't think the local plants and animals there match what used to be typical around the world prior to our current ice age. | |
| ▲ | rationalist an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | A steamy, stuffy jungle without airconditiong might be a more appropriate example. |
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| ▲ | biophysboy 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | A better time range would be the average species lifespan of the plants and animals we eat. Too short a range highlights noise; too long a range highlights unrelated data. | |
| ▲ | shiandow 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Okay? Let's keep it that way then I suppose. | |
| ▲ | b112 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'd trust such data a lot more, from any other source. | | |
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| ▲ | timr 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > A 1,200 year time series.. that's definitely in the climate area. Superficially, sure, but this is not a good dataset for any climate related argument. Cherry trees live about 100 years under optimal conditions, so you’re talking about multiple generations of trees here, with significant adaptation and selection along the way (humans heavily influenced the development of these trees, and the current “standard” tree for cherry blossoms in Japan is actually a hybrid first created in the 1700s). In short, even if you set aside measurement reliability and consistency over time, this dataset is heavily confounded. As an aside, you’ll note that the primary change is that the lagging tail of the distribution is pulling forward (i.e. the distribution is getting narrower) not that the distribution overall is shifting forward. You can find trees blooming “this early” many hundreds of years ago, just not as often as now. | | |
| ▲ | adriand an hour ago | parent [-] | | But wouldn’t that be true for all periods in the dataset? You see ups and downs over the centuries, and in each of those centuries I’m sure humans heavily influenced their evolution. Then you see a pronounced upward trend that just happens to also coincide with what we know to be serious, sustained and highly unusual planetary-wide warming. |
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| ▲ | dylan604 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | We say the same thing about southern California. When the forecast is the same for 350+ days out of the year, that's not weather, that's climate. I say that as someone from Texas that lived in LA for several years. Texas weather changes by the hour and this time of year it is advisable to keep an eye on it. In LA, you could go weeks without checking the "weather". | | |
| ▲ | lotsofpulp 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | That does not make any sense to me. SoCal is famous for having stable, comfortable weather (and hence its high land price). Some places have volatile weather, some places have more consistent weather. |
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| ▲ | BobbyJo 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Weather can be due to climate, and time series are composed of anecdotes. | | |
| ▲ | tshaddox 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > time series are composed of anecdotes This is incorrect, and is a very common misunderstanding of what the term "anecdote" means and what the actual problem with anecdotal data is. The dichotomy is between "anecdotal evidence" and "scientific evidence," and the important distinction is not that the latter simply has more data points than the former. The critical distinction is about the methodology used to gather the data, not merely the number of data points gathered. | | |
| ▲ | BobbyJo 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I think you are inverting things. Not all anecdotes are scientific data points, but all scientific data points are anecdotes in isolation. |
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| ▲ | lysace 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Key words: can be Longer time series are indeed composed of many samples/anecdotes. |
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| ▲ | sandworm101 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Climate is also dimensional. Kyoto is a point. A point over time is a line, a line through a 3d set of data. That a single point is seeing an effect is interesting but not as significant as widespread changes. Only when multiple measurements create a 2d map of realtime data, which becomes a 3d bulk over time, should we draw conclusions. Sadly, that is also happening. But the later should be the topic of conversation, not a single very visible data point. | | |
| ▲ | jfengel 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The single visible data point is interesting, as an illustration. It doesn't prove climate change one way or the other, but that is a discussion that ceased to be meaningful decades ago. Climate change is real, it is significant, and it is caused by humans. Further arguments about that are a (deliberate) waste of time. Having accepted that, and dismissed the time-wasters from the conversation, we can look around for things that we notice. One of them is the way it affects the times that trees bloom, giving us an opportunity to discuss the way that affects other aspects of the ecosystem. That, in turn, helps inform conversation about just how important the consequences are. Unlike the fact of climate change, it's not obvious how much the consequences matter to us, and what should change to avoid them. That is a conversation worth having, but it has been impossible while we're still listening to people reciting decades-old falsehoods. | | |
| ▲ | lysace 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | The single visible data point is interesting, as an illustration Seriously… |
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| ▲ | edbaskerville 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Interestingly, if you have one-dimensional observations f(t) of a k-dimensional strange attractor, the lagged vector time series [f(t); f(t - tau); f(t - 2 * tau); ...; f(t - (k - 1) * tau)] maps onto the full k-dimensional attractor. Specifically (as I check Wikipedia) it's a diffeomorphism, an isomorphism of differentiable manifolds. Presumably the earth system isn't at anything resembling an attractor right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if people are trying to use related techniques to try to detect qualitative changes in the system dynamics (like bifurcations). Maybe someone more knowledgeable could chime in on whether/how measurements at a single point on the earth's surface might be used to do that? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takens%27s_theorem |
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